posted on Apr, 26 2008 @ 10:48 AM
I stongly believe Russia will gradually escalate claims for Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's independence, mostly out of spite for Kosovo. Everyone
in Russia and Georgia saw this comming eventually when Kosovo illegally declared independence under the unlawful military occupation by NATO
Sure everyone was arguing all over the place when Kosovo declared independence, and US marveled at its power to slice appart countries without so much
as a regard for consequences. Well here come the consequences. I think this was Russia's plan all along. Russia laid low after Kosovo, and did not
intervene like many hoped it would. Instead Russia was already eyeing future independent states of its own domain - Abkhazia, South Ossetia,
Transdniester, and possibly even Crimea. And why not - if Kosovo can do why can't Abkhazia? Because US isn't there to say it can?
Honestly I don't support Abkhazia/South Ossetia independence. I do not support any further break-up of any nation. But Georgia is virtually
powerless here, even with all the US military aid they receive. And the nationalistic Saakashvilli is already losing much support. So if the break
away regions do decide it's time to separate, Russia will be there to back them, and Georgia will either be forced to watch, or will try to intervene
and be pushed back.
This is world politics, fair or not. I think Russia has already determined if the complete break-away will happen or not, much like US predetrmined
an attack on Iraq right after 9/11. All that's left to do it watch. I hope Russia does not take this road, as it will lead to more alienation from
the West. But if it does, it is at least partially justified by Kosovo.
Who can give one solid reason why Abkhazia and South Ossetia (and Crimea) should not be independent like Kosovo? Their situation is much that of