Hey ATS people.
I read this story in the norwegian newspaper Dagbladet. I'll try my best to translate it!
"A new study shows that the probability of intelligent life other planets than earth, is very small!
The point of the study is that even if there is life on other planets, intelligent life isn't likely to evolve before life on that planet expires.
Professor Andrew Watson from the University of East Anglia in England has created a mathematical model, which is published in "Astrobiology
He's calculated the probability of evolution on earth to only 0,001 percent!
Watson thinks that human beeings are a result of 4 evolutionary steps. The first step was the creation of singular celled organism half a billion
years after earth originated! The second step was the development of multi-celled life, which happened about a billion years after the creation of the
singular celled organisms.
The next step, a billion years later, developed functionelle lifeforms, while the forth step, another billion years later, developed intelligent
lifeforms with the abillity to communicate.
It took about 4 billion years from the creation of earth till the first intelligent lifeforms had developed!!
- This development is a result of a series of improbable coincidences, explains professor Watson to the Astrobiology Magazine.
Watson estimates that the probability of an evolution is the product of each steps probalility. He estimates that the probability of the each step to
happen is about 10 percent, which gives a probability of 0,001 percent of a total evolution.
To really destroy the hope that there is intelligent life on other planets, the study shows that the development of intelligent life on earth was a
race against time.
According to the study the sun will shortly begin to radiate stronger then it does today, and the beams eventually destroys the earths biosphere. When
this happens, all life will be destroyed.
While it's about 4 billion years since the singular celled oranism originated, all life might be exterminated in about a billion years. You might say
that intelligent life were created pretty late in comparison to the time life has an opportunity to excist on the planet.
- The fact that intelligent life were created so late in the biospheres lifetime, shows that our evolution is very improbable. If intelligent
lifeforms had been created earlier in the biospheres history, it would be easier to see that it might happen on other planets, says professor
Norways most famous astronomer, Knut Jørgen Røed Ødegaard is not convinced by the british study. He is very sure that intelligent life excists on
other planets. And that it's more common than we think.
- I'm not totally convinced about anything in that study. I donnot share his opinion. There are infact many things that shows that it has to be
intelligent lifeforms on other planets. On earth primitive life were created many times when the planet was young. It shows how life always try to
break through. And even if it took a very long time before intelligent life was created on earth, it might be something that's typical for our
Røed Ødegaard thinks that there is more than just hope for intelligent life out there. But, how intelligent it is can be discussed.
- In either way, I think that we would be pretty impressed if we came to a planet with mighty dinosaurs, he says.
He says that alternative worlds excists in great amounts. With this days techonology we are barely able to discover them.
- We have already found 273 or 274 planets outside our solarsystem. Out of these 2 of the planets are in a habitable zone. But the problem is that we
can only discover planets too close to it's stars to be habitable. There are many, many more, he says."
P.S. Sorry for the bad translation. It wasn't easy!