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Speculation: Conspiracy or Corincidence?

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posted on May, 26 2008 @ 07:50 PM
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I'd like to read a take on this:

Soros: Oil is a bubble




posted on May, 27 2008 @ 09:24 AM
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Hello Kosmicjack, welcome to the discussion. You get no argument from me on the matter of the oil bubble. The crash is going to hit hard when speculators finally run out of money to drive prices up. Like all man-made movements in the commodities market, this too shall crash.

It's the financial instability that will come from this that we should be worried about. Whole corporations could crash, which would spike unemployment.

Before that happens, transport costs associated with food and medicine will go through the roof. How many peole has this already hurt? We don't know. All we can say is that we're in for a lot more damage. All I can hope for is a change in the comodities culture and some reforms in the loose laws that allow this situation, in the first place.



posted on May, 27 2008 @ 12:25 PM
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reply to post by Justin Oldham
 



Hello Kosmicjack, welcome to the discussion. You get no argument from me on the matter of the oil bubble. The crash is going to hit hard when speculators finally run out of money to drive prices up. Like all man-made movements in the commodities market, this too shall crash. It's the financial instability that will come from this that we should be worried about. Whole corporations could crash, which would spike unemployment.

Before that happens, transport costs associated with food and medicine will go through the roof. How many people has this already hurt? We don't know. All we can say is that we're in for a lot more damage. All I can hope for is a change in the commodities culture and some reforms in the loose laws that allow this situation, in the first place.


“All we can say . . all I can hope . . a change in the commodities culture and some reforms in the loose laws that allow this situation, in the first place.”


Exactly!

I guess commodity future markets have been around since Babylon invented money. And the idea about rigging the market prices to your benefit must be equally as ancient. But lest we forget, we did not have these runaway markets between 1933 and 1981. (We didn’t have mortgage meltdowns either).

Now we are reaping the whirlwind we sowed with the Reagan Revolution. How much it will cost us at a time when we could have used the money so much more profitably, as in educating our children and providing universal access to affordable health care, as well as revamping our old infrastructures which include not only our highways but water and sewer pipes buried out of sight and so on.

But alas, we gave it all over to a handful of smarties who hoodwinked us with slogans and weird promises we would have laughed at if we had heard them on the Midway at the local county fair. I never fault the little people for falling prey to those blue sky promises; they TRUST us who know better to do better. But when the FOXES get in control it is hard to preserve the chickens.

To avoid a re-run of this mess all we have to do is RE-ENACT the 1933-1939 New Deal. It was all done there but now it is a hollow shell, thanks to you know who! As for getting out, it ain't gonna be easy, but I'd RAISE taxes on the over $200,000 FIRST. To 50%! That would send a message to those who are ripping us off. Then I'd send in the US Attorney's because I'd bet there is much insider trading, much cross-planning and much outright theft! It's either that or resurrect Robespierre and bring back the guillotine.



Mr Soros warned that the oil bubble would not burst until both the US and Britain were in recession, after which prices could fall dramatically. "You can also anticipate that [the bubble] will eventually correct but that is unlikely to happen before the recession actually reduces the demand.

Mr Soros warns Britain is facing its worst economic storm in living memory, dwarfing those of the 1970s and early 1990s, with a housing slump and serious recession. He said: "The dislocations will be greater [than in the 1970s] because you also have the implications of the house price decline, which you didn't have in the 1970s."

The warning undermines predictions that Britain will suffer only a brief and relatively painless recession, unlike the precipitous dives of previous years. Mr Soros also warned that the Bank's inflation report represents a "Faustian pact", obliging it to keep interest rates high to control inflation, even as the economy is starting to slump. "You had the nice decade," he said. "Now that is over and you are in a straitjacket."
See www.telegraph.co.uk.../money/2008/05/26/cnsoros126.xml


[edit on 5/27/2008 by donwhite]



posted on May, 27 2008 @ 02:30 PM
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Would punative taxes really work? I'm enclined to say no. Legal reforms can be undertaken incrementally, which would allow predatory speculators to get the message. If they didn't change their ways, they'd get nailed.

Here's one more reason to avoid punative taxes. As an author, I can make some money, or none. I can also make a million dollars if enough people like my work. Your punative taxes would burn me, AND those wascally speculators.



posted on May, 27 2008 @ 02:49 PM
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reply to post by Justin Oldham
 



Would punitive taxes really work? I'm enclined to say no. Legal reforms can be undertaken incrementally, which would allow predatory speculators to get the message. If they didn't change their ways, they'd get nailed.


But do we have that much time? You're talking 1-2 years out. By the time we are ready to "nail" them, they will own all the nails!



Here's one more reason to avoid punative taxes. As an author, I can make some money, or none. I can also make a million dollars if enough people like my work. Your punitive taxes would burn me, AND those rascally speculators.


Anything less that 50% I do not think of as punitive. I see it more as paying a FAIR share. (Haven't we been here before?)

History. The higher tax rate is not so much a revenue raising device although that is good enough in itself, but it is more a way to reinforce a SOCIAL COMPACT that we share a common fate.

If I am a homeless person and you live in a 25.000 square feet house, we really have nothing in common. Having commonality is why the Great Depression was survivable, and livable. We shared our misery. Now the R&Fs live in gated communities so they do not even have to SEE us lower life forms.

Taxes are the one great unifier. OR the great divider! People still may doubt me but I’m telling again the top bracket rate was 91% from 1942 until 1962. And we all prospered!

It was a focusing mechanism that kept us TOGETHER.

[edit on 5/27/2008 by donwhite]



posted on Jun, 1 2008 @ 04:56 PM
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How do you repsond to those who would say that no government has a claim on what they earn? We do have a segment of the populaton here on ATS which argues that the Federal income tax is illegal. I'd be curious to kno what your perspective is on that?



posted on Jun, 1 2008 @ 08:06 PM
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I thought you guys might be interested in this article as it relates to speculation:

The Gods of Greed



posted on Jun, 2 2008 @ 03:17 AM
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Well assuming that Oil is overpriced there is nothing I would like better then the market to right itself and for prices to fall . This happened world wide with the housing market although it took a while because people continued to buy homes despite the rising costs . Given that the demand for Oil wont abate it would seem that a differnt trigger may be needed before prices fall .

All of this now reminds me of Railway Mania .



posted on Jun, 2 2008 @ 02:55 PM
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hanks forthe article, kosmicjack. Tehre are a lot of reasons why oil is over priced. Tehre are too many investment mechanisms tied to oil. With so many industrial economies coming on line at the same time, demand will remain shockingly high for therest of this century.



posted on Jun, 6 2008 @ 02:06 PM
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Kicking this thread up as oil jumped $11 bucks a barrel. People need to understand that appx 60% of the price of oil is speculation. We need to understand the market forces and the necessity for regulating commodities, such as oil, that everyone is dependent on. The SuperClass is making money off of our suffering and hard work. Are you tired of it yet?



posted on Jun, 6 2008 @ 03:35 PM
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Oh, boy. We're on track to see $150 per barrel by July 4th. Isn't that ironic. Kosmicjack is right. A lot of the investment mechanisms that we use are somehow timed to oil. Hedge funds, 401K's, etc. there are a lot more "inputs" to the price of oil than we realize.



posted on Jun, 6 2008 @ 04:16 PM
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www.wakeupfromyourslumber.com...


WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

--The food and oil crisis is caused by runaway speculation.

--Runaway speculation was caused by total de-regulation, and by the regulators (CFTC) being in on the scam.

--After the sub-prime mortgage meltdown, the criminals (banksters, hedge fund managers, etc) moved into the commodities markets.

--To restore sanity, we must regulate all commodity exchanges worldwide, and we must increase margin requirements for commodity traders. (That is, we must demand that players put up a lot more money, and take on a lot more risk).

--We need not discuss the weak dollar (which plays a role) or rising demand from China, India, etc. Our immediate priority is to re-regulate the commodities markets NOW, and stop this insane bubble from metastasizing further. We absolutely must get food and oil prices under control.

Otherwise the USA is .ed for a depression, and much of the world is .ed for famine.



posted on Jun, 6 2008 @ 09:29 PM
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Its just not the price of oil that is being artificially driven up . I suspect that the payouts given to Kiwi dairy(SP?) are inflated despite the rising demand for food from China and India .



German farmers have refused to deliver milk to dairies since last week, with more than half of Germany's 100 or so large processing plants blockaded by tractors and other vehicles.

Farmers in the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Austria have joined them.

Prices paid to European Union farmers for milk have fallen about 30 per cent in six months while production costs are up 8 per cent.


Source

I understand that farmers in the EU are going thou some pain just as Kiwi farmers did when free market reforms were introduced here . Ultimately time will prove me right or wrong . If milk prices don't pick world wide after the EU is thou its trauma then New Zealand will be in big trouble economic wise .

If the market bottoms out of the backbone of the NZ economy along with rising fuel and living costs then we have had it .



posted on Jun, 7 2008 @ 09:10 AM
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reply to post by xpert11
 



Its just not the price of oil that is being artificially driven up. I understand that farmers in the EU are going thou some pain just as Kiwi farmers did when free market reforms were introduced here. Ultimately time will prove me right or wrong. If milk prices don't pick world wide after the EU is thou its trauma then New Zealand will be in big trouble economic wise. If the market bottoms out of the backbone of the NZ economy along with rising fuel and living costs then we have had it.


It don't have to be so, Mr X11. It is often a truism “It must get worse before it can get better.” We are for sure in the “getting worse” phase. And my “we” is not the imperial “we” but I mean all the 6.8 billion inhabitants of the Planet Earth. The big WE!

When the glorified world of private enterprise (say unrestrained) has mucked up the real world so badly even it can’t function, we will perforce revert to SOCIALISM to restore economic sanity and a humane equilibrium. Planning together for the common good (survival) and to make life livable again. We’ve been there, done that. The New Deal. 1933-1939. We can do it again, and better this time, provided we have the WILL and the COURAGE.

An unintended obstacle is furnished by some poor forlorn souls keep waiting for the highly touted Free Market corrections to pull us out of this dilemma we have ALLOWED the R&Fs to bring upon us. Rich and Famous. Your Michael Milkens. Your Charles deGaulles. Your Margaret Thatchers. Your Ronald Reagans. Your Dung Cho-pings. Your neo-con icons. This is their legacy to us ordinary folk.

There are too many who still believe that someone, somewhere, is watching over the toys our children play with, to keep out the LEAD. Those who still think there is someone somewhere watching over us to keep e.coli out of our fresh vegetables, out of our red meat, all to make us safe! Those of us who think there is someone somewhere watching over the traders who are setting the prices for life’s necessities we must have. But alas! Slowly we are all coming to grasp THAT is not so. There really is NO ONE watching the watchers! And we’re left to wonder how that came to pass.

Society in general cannot allow a few 100 super rich or commission paid fund managers to set the price for resources we must have to live. We could take the easy way out. Go to the trading history of the 5 or 6 commodity exchanges around the world; review the records of all the trades made in the last 180 days, and SHOOT every buyer! Then we could move forward with reforms without fear those same people who jammed us and who will never REFORM on their own are eliminated.

We - the 99.9% of us - have been put on the thin edge of survival by those speculators. We - the 99.9% of us - must take quick and drastic action to correct the wrongful practices we have indulged. We must assure we do not repeat this process again in living memory.

And while we are at it, let us also SHOOT the non-industry buyers over the past 180 days. Drastic? Yes, but I see society in general suffering from GANGRENE inflicted on us by the couple 1000 buyers and sellers OUTSIDE the industry they are medaling in. Speculators. Those people are far more dangerous to society in general than are Ted Bundy types, your convenient store robbers and your run of the mill burglars. IT IS THEM OR US!

[edit on 6/7/2008 by donwhite]



posted on Jun, 8 2008 @ 10:52 PM
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I don't think socialsm will be the remedy. The currently administration has failed to enfoce the law, which has played some role in the current speculation spiral. Add to this the fact that laws have not changed to reflect the changes in economic environment and circumstnace.

Becasue it will be to theri politicla benefit, I expect the Democrats to investigate, reform, and enforce as needed. I'm probably not going to like the resutls, but even I will be surprised if they don't do SOME of that.



posted on Jun, 9 2008 @ 11:24 PM
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I will be the first to admit that there is a speculative component to the current price of oil. What percentage of the current price of oil is speculative is highly debateable. Demand is ramping worldwide so oil would be in an upward trend if there were zero speculation allowed. It's really easy to blame speculators, "evil" oil companies, foreign boogeyman dujor, or whatever. Democrats blame oil companies and speculators the most, while Republicans blame environmental concerns mostly. I think it's only right that CONgress should shoulder it's share of the blame for our current situation with regards to oil and financial markets. In my opinion the 2 things most responsible for our current sad state of affairs in regards to the price of oil and market turmoil happened about about a decade ago under a Republican controlled CONgress and a Democratic President. Refusal to allow drilling in Alaska or the gulf 10 years ago have ensured that we are thinking about $150 oil, and the repeal of the Depression era Glass-Steagal Act that droped the walls between investment and commercial banks has led to this fine mess we have with financials and systemic risk in the US economy.



posted on Jun, 10 2008 @ 08:12 AM
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reply to post by Justin Oldham
 



I don't think socialism will be the remedy. The current administration has failed to enforce the law, which has played some role in the current speculation spiral. Add to this the fact that laws have not changed to reflect the changes in economic environment and circumstances.


1) Socialism is not a four letter word. Socialism is a catch-all word that in modern America more or less means doing things in the public’s interest first. Unlike the Europe of our founding ancestors, America is not a socialist thinking country. But it has often been progressive and on rare occasions highly populist. Both acceptable words meaning a collective purpose about solving common problems.

2) I offer you the era of 1933 to 1980 as an exemplary period where the Federal government actually governed. Where all the rules of good conduct by business were in place. And looking back, produced a period unrivaled in all its aspects. Call it what you may, it worked and it worked well.

3) The Reagan/Neo Con alternative has been in place since 1981 and it has brought a new disproportionate division of wealth in the general populace. The Rich are getting richer, and the Poor are getting poorer. Surely the ownership of MORE of America by FEWER Americans is not conducive to long term social harmony? And I’d add, such an unhealthy division of wealth holds the (unwelcome) seeds of its own destruction.

4) Call the era (1933-1980) what you will, but this is one time we need to GO BACKWARDS.

5) I think the Federal LAWS have been changed. But all for the worse, and none for the better. It would be a safe bet just to repeal all the laws enacted after 1980 to get us off to a good start. We’d want to re-create the US Civil Service Commission and let them do a rerun of their exemplary past performance creating the BEST large bureaucracy in the world. Not a small accomplishment. Always keeping in mind SERVICE is the mantra of good government and PROFIT is the mantra of private enterprise.


Because it will be to their political benefit, I expect the Democrats to investigate, reform, and enforce as needed. I'm probably not going to like the results, but even I will be surprised if they don't do SOME of that.


Recriminations are usually counter-productive. Everybody knows Haliburton has been stealing tax dollars. Everybody knows both VP Cheney and Herr Oberfuhrer Rumsfeld were Haliburton enablers despite the company's callous dipping into the public trough. Everybody ought to know Hallburton moved its .quarters to Dubia UAE to avoid the subpoenas they know will come in 2009. How vigorously the Dems pursue Halliburton in the UAE will reveal just how much recriminating they plan to do.



posted on Jun, 14 2008 @ 02:52 PM
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I note with some interest that drivers of gasoline tankers are on strike in teh U.K. It won't be long before the Teamsters union here in the States will go on strike to protest the high costs of fuel. With so many things needing a fix, how does the next President get started? WHERE do they start?



posted on Jun, 14 2008 @ 05:22 PM
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Politicians world wide will need to be careful what they promise . Promising to lower fuel costs will get you elected but such will be hard to implement . In the US it remains to be seen if there are enough moderates around who aren't purely ideologically driven . These are the political leaders who would be willing and able to make a compromise between increasing supply and preserving the environment . Such a compromise should be along the lines of allowing off shore drilling while preserving National Parks and other areas which are on land .

So far the dumbest idea I have read is to increase taxes in order to confiscate "excessive" profits from the Oil company's. Such would only lead to a higher cost being passed on to the consumer in one form or another .



posted on Jun, 14 2008 @ 09:40 PM
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reply to post by xpert11
 


These are the political leaders who would be willing and able to make a compromise between increasing supply and preserving the environment. Such a compromise should be along the lines of allowing off shore drilling while preserving National Parks and other areas which are on land.


Th issue of drilling for oil is about drilling on Federal land. All the land in America is not privately owned. About 30% remains in the PUBLIC domain. That is, titled in the Federal Government.

History.
The spotted owl controversy involved Weyerhaeuser and other lumber companies wanting ACCESS to the Federal lands to cut down mature redwood trees. The snail darter controversy was over the construction of a privately owned dam on the Tennessee River. Rivers belong to the United States, not the states or private individuals. The ANWR - Alaska National Wildlife Reserve - debate is about drilling on Federally land. The land is not owned by the people who live in Alaska.

The theory of land ownership is that land is never without an owner. Over the years the Federal government has bought and paid for Louisiana Territory, Florida, part of Arizona and New Mexico - the Gadsden Purchase - and Alaska. We bought the American Virgin Islands from Denmark. We once owned the Panama Canal Zone - where John McCain was born - but we gave it back to Panama. To encourage the construction of a transcontinental railroad in the mid-1850s-1860s, the Federal government offered a 10 mile wide strip of land for each mile of track, which was 6,400 acres per mile laid.

I assume you know the US waged the Mexican War in 1846-1848 and in the peace treaty we took for our own all of California, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and part of Colorado. Whatever land that belonged to Spain or Mexico was transferred to the United States government. Much of the land in Wyoming is still owned by the Federal government.

Many people living in America want to preserve most if not all of this land for future generations. We do not want to clear cut forest that contain trees 300-400 years old. We just don’t want to do it. We have reasons but we don't need reasons. The land is ours not theirs.

The issue of drilling in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico is of great concern to Florida. Tourism is Florida’s largest industry. A single crude oil spill could cause irrevocable harm to the near-pristine beaches the run the entire length of the Florida coastline. 1,500 miles. The best beaches in the Northern Hemisphere bar none. Yes, we - the state of Florida - could sue the offending well driller. But look, as of 2008 ExxonMobil has not paid the $6 b. judgment against it over the Prince William Sound oil spill disaster of 1989. So what good is a judgment for damages if you can’t collect?



So far the dumbest idea I have read is to increase taxes in order to confiscate "excessive" profits from the Oil company's. Such would only lead to a higher cost being passed on to the consumer in one form or another.


Are you suggesting the United States of America is HELPLESS in the face of such immense wealth as the oil industry possesses? The Republicans (and a couple Democrats) voted to a man NOT to lay on an EXCESS profits tax. If all goes well November 4, that issue will be revisited in 2009.

CHOICES. You can let private enterprise STRANGLE you or you can invoke the powers of a SOVEREIGN nation. Just ask Bush43 how strong the Command in Chief designation is.

[edit on 6/15/2008 by donwhite]



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