No politics, just few observations: This is about the recent
or anywhere else (BBC seems to have a better quality video,
but it is harder to access.
It appears that the images of the coastline are genuine, and
you can match the actual area to that on Google Earth. Just
play with it a little bit.
To identify the place:
Install GoogleEarth, and then look at the east coast of
Black see and find place called "Ochamchira". Note that the
quality of the image on Googearth is not very good specifically
in this place and the area of interest is in a brown rectangle,
which is darger and than the surrounding rectangles, which
are mostly green. Once you find "Ochamchira" on google Earth
go a little bit south along the coast, until you see a small
town called "Meore Gudava" it is labelled on Google Earth
maps. This place is characterized by an identation on the
coast line, and a river which goes almost perpendicular
to the coast, them makes 90-degree left turn and enters to
Stop the video at the moment when you can see wheel
of the UAV in the upper-left corner of the screen no more
than 1/6 of the wheel must be visible: if more roll the
movie back a little bit. At this moment on the right
portion of the screen you shoold see and recognize
the river making 90-degree right turn, the identation
of the coast, and the city of "Meore Gudava".
Now back to Google Earth south from Meore Gudava observe
a narrow triangular strip of land free of vegetation, which
looks lighter than the surrounding (the sharp edge of the
triangle points south). Also you will see a dark spot a bit
further south along the coast.
Roll back movie, so that you about 2 seconds before the
wheel appears: you should recognize the spot and the
Based on what I see in the movie, the UAV is off-shore,
a bit south from the black spot. I would place the UAV at
42 deg 30' North
41 deg 30' East
Given that the difference in north-south direction between
Meore Gudava and the black spot is 5', or 5 nautical miles,
or 9 kilometers, cooordinate, and given the ~60 angle of
the coast relatively to the screen, and the way how view
moves, I would estimate the distance to the coast from the
UAV at about 6 km, and altitude of the UAV about the same,
[ Yes, in is well inside Abhaz territorial waters, for
those who cares ]
The video of the coastline in genuine.
[ If you assume that this video is correct, the UAV was
shot down would fall into the Sea: there is simply no
other way. This is consistent with Abkhaz claim of the
plane shot down on March 18 (it fell into the Sea and
they could not recover pieces; Georgia denied then and
still denies today that that incident ever took place).
It is NOT CONSISTENT with last Sunday, April 20 shutdown:
this time the UAV was shot down over land, and Abkhaz's
quickly recovered the wreckage and show it on TV.
I personally believe that both events took place, and
therefore TWO Georgian UAVs were shot down in two month.
There are also unconfirmed claims by Abkhazs about shoting
down another UAV last year, deep over land, when they
could not recover wreckage because of mountains.
Russia maintains that the UAVs were wrightfully shot
down, but yields all credits to Abkhazs. Abkkazs
insists that they did it. Georgia admits only one of
the two confirmed cases, and gives the glory to
Personally I would love to have one of the Russian
generals saying "Yes, we did it, and it is correct,
and every mf...ker flying there will be downed in a
manner shown in the movie". But this is not what they
say: in fact, they say nothing. ]
However, the image of Mig-29 firing missile has a problem:
As a matter of fact, in reality Mig-29s do not have missile
rails right on the wingtips, and the missile closest to the
wing tip of the wing is about 1/3 of the wingspan inside,
see, for example
Apparently, Mig-29 never had wing tip rails (no modification of
the plane ever) and it cannot have it because its wing tips are
slightly rounded (like F15), which structurally excludes
installing the missile rails at the tips.
Now, if you stop the the Georgian video at the right moment,
just when missile detaches from the wing, you will see that
the missile originates right at the wing tip. Just do clicking,
but be patient and try to do it several times. Also observe
the shine of sunlight on the left wing just before the missile
is fired to have a good idea about where the left wing ends.
Note that missile engine starts before the missile leaves
the plane, to that on this video I was able to do a double
click with my mouse observing the smog, while the missile
is still attached to the plane. (I kwow that some newer
planes like F-22 eject the missile downward, before its
engine starts -- if the missile is carried inside the
fuselage, there is simply no other way)
If it is not the 29, so what it is?
Of the russian planes only two types: Mig-25/31 (looks
like... may be(?)) and Su-27 (incl. all its derivatives)
has rails at the wing tips.
However Mig-25/31 are excluded because they look very
Su-27 is closer to Mig-29 in appearance, but its twin
tails are straight vertica and parallel to each other
(like the ones of F-15, and not bent outward, like on
the 29, or on F-18). Also 27 has a longer front portion
of the fuselage before its forward wing extentions begin,
and distinct tailboom going beyond the rear end of the
The two types, Mig-29 and Su-27, routinely fly together
on airshows in close formation, so it is pretty easy to
compare how they look like from various directions for
The plane on Georgian video is definitely looks more
like the 29 than the 27 ... but with wing tip missile
rails like Su-27. This is a common kind of sloppyness
for Universal Studios, Hollywood -- you can find a lot
of oopses like that in Hollywood movies -- but it is
an unforgivable for Georgian airforce colonel, who
should know how Mig-25 looks like.