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My Predictions concerning wars involving China

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posted on Apr, 20 2008 @ 03:07 AM
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Much of the focus on China future involvement in wars deals with Taiwan and Iran . IMO this is some what misdirected rather or sometimes misguided . Future wars will involving China will be proxy wars that take place in Africa and the Asia - Pacific region. China is looking to sew up the worlds reserves of natural resources in order to gain an economic advantage .

China strategy is to use foreign aid to African countries to increase its influence and secure a supply of natural resources in a time of rising fuel and living costs . China giving foreign aid to the likes of Fiji can only be described as influence peddling . I expect China to subtlety oppose a demcratic government in Fiji and that some point in the future Fiji will be buying Chinese made military hardware . It is not exactly out of the realm of possibility that the Chinese military will have bases in Fiji .

The time may come when a regime change is necessary in Fiji a stone throw away from New Zealand . In Africa the US and any of its allies that tag along will enter the likes of Sudan and Somalia under the guise of fighting terrorism and protecting people from human rights abuses. If the Global economy crashes extreme left and wing organisations will link up with terrorists or be accused of doing so.

From then on it will all depend on whether US or China backed regimes come up trumps. China has a head start in the game due to the fact they have been supplying arms to the likes of Zimbabwe.

The CIA wont find it as ease to install friendly regimes as it did in the Cold War . After what the Shah of Iran ultimately lead to in terms of the government of Iran such a policy can only said to be unwise. Aside from the possibility of Iran gaining nuclear weapons once the US withdraws from Iraq the ME will have run its course.

Africa will become a corrupt version of what Asia is today in economic terms . Africa is next continent where the worlds focus will be on.

[edit on 20-4-2008 by xpert11]




posted on Apr, 20 2008 @ 09:00 AM
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reply to post by xpert11
 


(1) Much of the focus on China future involvement in wars deals with Taiwan and Iran . IMO this is some what misdirected rather or sometimes misguided . Future wars will involving China will be proxy wars that take place in Africa and the Asia - Pacific region. (2) If the Global economy crashes extreme left and wing organizations will link up with terrorists or be accused of doing so. From then on it will all depend on whether US or China backed regimes come up trumps.


1) Been there, done that. Beginning with the 1931 invasion of Manchuria (China), Japan tried to form its Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. It reached as far west as Burma and as far south as New Guinea and threatened Australia. We blew it to smithereens in 1945. Fourteen years all told, the last 3 of which were not happy times in Tokyo.

China has no naval tradition as Japan had. You cannot transport significant numbers of troops, tanks and humvees by sampans. Our first supercarrier - angled flight deck - cost under $1 b. Today’s supercarriers cost $8 b. without counting the Air Wing, which would raise it to $10 b. Each. We have 8 in the water and 2 more are under construction. Whether or not they are added to or replace older vessels depends in part on what the Chinese do. See Note 1. CVN-68 is the Nimitz, first of a class of 10, and the last 2 are about to be finished. CV-67, the JFK and last non-nuclear powered, is being decommissioned as I write this.

Which I take it means China can cause mischief in Africa but it cannot support a meaningful insurgency or counter-insurgency.

As for Taiwan. China and the United States have achieved a very harmonious relationship DESPITE Taiwan. As a matter of interest I have recently learned that many of the HIGH tech parts in our electronic goods “Made in China” actually are produced in Taiwan. But ASSEMBLED in China. As China moves more towards laissez-faire capitalism to fill its socialist needs, Taiwan may be much less of an issue for both the US and the PRC.

Don’t overlook China's internal problems that while 300 million Chinese are enjoying a taste of the good life in varying degrees, there remain 1 b. Chinese trapped back in the Great Leap Forward days of Mao. Going nowhere fast! China has polluted itself near unto death! Olympic athletes are bringing canned oxygen with them to Beijing. That sounds like LA in the 1950s.

2) It is neigh onto impossible for me to conceive of what would happen today if we re-run the Great Depression of the late 1920s stretched into the late 1930s. I don’t know what brought on the Great Depression. A perfect storm of adverse economic conditions around the world? France and Britain unwisely depended on German reparations to pay their huge war debts. All three had lost upwards of 20-33% of their war age men. That factor alone would have crippled an all male workforce for decades. Germany was bankrupt before the Weimar Republic was created at Versailles. Russia (by then the USSR) was flat busted and internal turmoil brought on by a decade of low agricultural output killed off 10 million Kulaks.

US farmers were lured by artificially high prices for grain in the aftermath of WW1 when Herbert Hoover lead an effort to feed starving people in Western Europe. American farmers went deep into debt buying the new motorized farm machines in anticipation of an ever growing market for their produce in Europe, but then Mother Nature gave Western Europe 3 or 4 successive good growing seasons and demand for American crops collapsed. The US farmers faced a mortgage meltdown of their own by the mid-1920s.

After Mussolini made the trains run on time, Fascism swept across east and west Europe so that by June, 1941, when the Second World War began in earnest, all of Europe west of or on the Danube was under one form or another of Fascism. Only the British Isles and the United States (barely) escaped it’s appeal. Thanks in large part to Churchill and Roosevelt. Respectively.

I’ve said a lot (as usual) but I cannot offer a glimpse into our world in say, 2010 or 2011 with a world-wide economic collapse. It’s too much for me to do when sober. Maybe a bottle of 5 star Hennessy will help?


Africa will become a corrupt version of what Asia is today in economic terms . Africa is next continent where the worlds focus will be on.


Mr X11, I’m not so hopeful that even your dire prediction - which would be an improvement for most Africans - is possible. Those people really are dark skin and that does not bode well for them vis a vis the white skin people. We have destroyed their native subsistence culture - we collectivized agriculture - which would have seen those who practice it through hard times, but now, they have all the bad parts of Western Civ with none of the good. If calamity hits China and the US, a holocaust will strike Africa! And the West had better be wary of stray nukes! No thanks to Bush43.


Note 1.
The USS Forestall is the first supercarrier with an angled flight deck which allows aircraft launch and recovery at the same time. CV-59. 1955. The newest carrier class - the Gerald R. Ford class - is now being built as CVN-78. CVN-79 and CVN-80 are planned. The “N” of course means nuclear powered. It is alarming (to me) that this ship - CVN-78 - is under construction by the Northrop-Grumman Shipbuilding Company. Please GOD if you really do LOVE us like YOU say, save us from the Military Industrial Complex. Airplane manufacturers have morphed into boat builders. Sweet Jesus, Come Quick!

[edit on 4/20/2008 by donwhite]



posted on Apr, 20 2008 @ 09:06 AM
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Some sound logic xpert11.

I think we will see a new cold war starting between China and the US and I agree that China will use her foreign aid to influence in the third world, and the fact that China is major importer of raw materials, will only help to grow her influence.

The question of Taiwan is an all together different question, and the one area that could be the flash point for direct military action. China claims Taiwan as her own, and it depends on just how far the US wants to push on Taiwan, and one could see the US forcing some stand off on Taiwan to divert China's attention.



posted on Apr, 20 2008 @ 11:34 AM
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reply to post by Freedom ERP
 


I think we will see a new cold war starting between China and the US and I agree that China will use her foreign aid to influence in the third world, and the fact that China is major importer of raw materials, will only help to grow her influence.


Whoa up there! War hot or cold is straight out of the Neo Con Playbook. All the known Neo Cons have departed the Government for greener pastures in think tanks like Cato and AEI - American Enterprise Institute. Except the Neo Con leader in chief, Bush43. There is no need for competition between the US and China to go anywhere past Toys R Us. They make’em we buy’em.

If China is doing the manufacturing, it is reasonable they will need the raw materials. I do not see any NATURAL conflict there but I do admit American politicos are promoting WAR with Islam, WAR with China and WAR with Iran. Good GOD A’mighty it’s good for us and the world that Bush43 is OUT of here January 20, 2009. Let's hope he does not manage to trick somebody into a WAR before he is gone.



The question of Taiwan is an all together different question, and the one area that could be the flash point for direct military action. China claims Taiwan as her own, and it depends on just how far the US wants to push on Taiwan, and one could see the US forcing some stand off on Taiwan to divert China's attention.


We made what I regard as a stupid move last month when we played like we DISCOVERED an earlier shipping error where we had sent A-bomb parts to Taiwan. Mis-directed we said. That is not even a THINLY veiled threat! I do not know what that was in response to. I have learned a lot about the Chinese since I last visited Panmun-jon in 1954 and that is, THEY DO NOT LIE about matters that are important to them. We OTOH confuse ourselves with LIES.

I put forth my view on Taiwan in my earlier post, so I incorporate those here by reference.

[edit on 4/20/2008 by donwhite]



posted on Apr, 20 2008 @ 11:55 AM
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Originally posted by donwhite
We made what I regard as a stupid move last month when we played like we DISCOVERED an earlier shipping error where we had sent A-bomb parts to Taiwan. Mis-directed we said. That is not even a THINLY veiled threat! I do not know what that was in response to. I have learned a lot about the Chinese since I last visited Panmun-jon in 1954 and that is, THEY DO NOT LIE about matters that are important to them. We OTOH confuse ourselves with LIES.
[edit on 4/20/2008 by donwhite]


Ah yes, one of my favorite things about America..how we have accidents all the time! We are such a clumsy country! We had no idea that we accidentally sent parts of a nuclear weapon to Taiwan! Silly us! And when an uprising starts up in Taiwan, and they accidentally set off a nuke in Beijing, we will have no idea where they got it from..



posted on Apr, 20 2008 @ 07:18 PM
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Don it is interest that you mention the invasion of Manchuria. One or more od the proxy wars in Africa could be started by an incident that is engineered by the US or China thou a third party. Up until 1905 Japan had no naval tradition either so that is something to bear in mind . Anyway returning to the focus of the topic since we are dealing with proxy wars we wont be seeing a re run of the Battle of Atlantic. Rather the US and China will violate arms embargoes as per usual.

You also have to account for fact that arms could be smuggled over largerly land routes . China lack of environmental controls is there Achilles’ heel but the proxy wars we are discussing could take place before China strangles itself . Even without a full blown depression with increased living costs and demands for natural resources I still expect to see the rise of extremist groups that I have referred to.

The US had a chance to counter China influence in Africa and create a stable democracy in Somalia in the 90s but there wasn't sufficient political support or will to do so . So the US losing Africa will be due to lost opportunity's of course the blame will fall at the then current admin. Anyway I expect that an elite few will gain all the benefits from the demand for African natural resources rather then the wider population.

China still needs natural resources to assemble the goods they sell to the US and elsewhere . The US and elsewhere also need natural resources for domestic consummation so there is no avoiding the competition for African natural resources . Another mercenary's will not surprising play a big part in the proxy wars as they have done in the current Iraq war . Due to the lack of oversight mercenary's other wise known as private security contractors will end up being involved with a massacre of civilians . Rightfully or wrongfully the US military will cop the blame even if US troops aren't directory involved.

To avoid going off topic all I am going to say concerning Taiwan is that as China influence grows the chance of Taiwan gaining independence lessens.

[edit on 20-4-2008 by xpert11]



posted on Apr, 21 2008 @ 12:17 PM
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reply to post by expert11
 


Don it is interest that you mention the invasion of Manchuria. Up until 1905 Japan had no naval tradition either. Rather the US and China will violate arms embargoes as per usual. You also have to account for fact that arms could be smuggled over largely land routes.


I do not mean to detract from the glory the Japanese Navy rightly felt in 1905 but let’s face it, the Imperial Navy of the Tsar of all the Russians was not up to western fleet standards as in Great Britain, Germany or the US. I believe the outcome of those naval battles would have been far different had Japan faced either of the latter navies.

Russia, the Czechs and China have made over 50 million AK47s or knock-offs compared to 10 million M16s. Small arms are said to be more abundant in Somalia than sacks of flour. But I had reference to heavy equipment not small arms. Small arms are OK for street gangs, but for armies that intend to capture and hold key locations, tanks are essential. Heavy trucks and armored humvees to get around in are also high value items. Those cannot be smuggled across national boundaries. That level of equipment must come by sea or air.

I’m back to my ‘mischief level’ that China can create in Africa. I admit I have not dealt with the asymmetric warfare that has confounded the American Armed Forces in Iraq and Afghan.


Even without a full blown depression with increased living costs and demands for natural resources I still expect to see the rise of extremist groups that I have referred to. The US had a chance to counter China influence in Africa and create a stable democracy in Somalia in the 90s but there wasn't sufficient political support or will to do so.


Am I the only person who asserts that skin color dictates how the US responds to foreign emergencies? (Domestic ones too. See NO). We jumped in and stopped the mutual slaughter in old Yugoslavia, slower than some wanted but we did ultimately get there and are still there. Yet we have been bemoaning the genocide in Darfur for over 6 years! Sweet Jesus, if we wait much longer there will be NO people remaining to commit genocide on! Bush43 would then declare Mission Accomplished!

Somalia is about as much of a NO value place as anywhere on this planet. Hot, dry and devoid of any oil at all! Sorry folks but there is nothing there that rises to the level of provoking our interest. Let China have it!


China still needs natural resources to assemble the goods they sell to the US and elsewhere. The US and elsewhere also need natural resources for domestic consummation so there is no avoiding the competition for African natural resources.


True, but we (should) have learned it is cheaper to buy what you need than to conquer the source. See Afghan and Iraq for examples of the cost of conquest. (4,038 KIA as of today). Or how much oil can you buy for $550 b. the amount Bush43 has spent so far on his 2003 Bringing Democracy to Iraq adventure? See Note 1.


Anyway I expect that an elite few will gain all the benefits from the demand for African natural resources rather then the wider population.


Is this a genuine plea for socialism?


To avoid going off topic all I am going to say concerning Taiwan is that as China influence grows the chance of Taiwan gaining independence lessens.


Odd. I was just suggesting the opposite, that the new China-US paradigm makes Taiwan's independence less relevant to China and the US. I think Taiwan is happy with things the way they are. Taiwan is after all “free.” It is only inexpensive palaver (cheap talk) and old ideology that claims otherwise.


Note 1.
At $116 per barrel, and our level of imported oil being 15 mbpd - million barrels per day - that would have paid for 10 months of imported crude oil for the US. Making the retail price of gasoline about 45-50 cents a gallon plus the 90 cents tax, total $1.35-$1.40 per gallon at the pump for 10 months! Thank you Bush43, you sure do love America.

[edit on 4/21/2008 by donwhite]



posted on Apr, 21 2008 @ 09:44 PM
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Originally posted by donwhite
But I had reference to heavy equipment not small arms. Small arms are OK for street gangs, but for armies that intend to capture and hold key locations, tanks are essential.


In conventional war your thinking is correct . However when you deal insurgency warfare the support of the local population or forcing people to support the cause is the key factor . You don't exactly see to many tank battles in Iraq or Afghanistan.



Heavy trucks and armored humvees to get around in are also high value items. Those cannot be smuggled across national boundaries. That level of equipment must come by sea or air.


In general that is true although one suspects that ways would be found to smuggle such items across land routes. Since it is likely that Iran would side with China it would seem that the US is at somewhat of a disadvantage to begin with.


I’m back to my ‘mischief level’ that China can create in Africa. I admit I have not dealt with the asymmetric warfare that has confounded the American Armed Forces in Iraq and Afghan.


You call it mischief I call it a proxy war but they both seem to add up to the same thing much like tomato and tomato .




Am I the only person who asserts that skin color dictates how the US responds to foreign emergencies? (Domestic ones too. See NO).


At the risk of going off topic this point is worth answering in the context of the topic . Human rights abuses by themselves don't merit intervention by itself in the eyes of world leaders . The former Yugoslavia and the states it has broken up into presented a chance to be put a pro western foot print in what use to be behind the Iron Curtain .


Somalia is about as much of a NO value place as anywhere on this planet. Hot, dry and devoid of any oil at all!


Au contraire Somalia would provide something of a foothold for US interests in Africa . That is why intervention in Sudan and a large scale return to Somalia will take place. After the industrial revolution transformed the worlds navy's seemingly worthless outposts became prized assets as coaling stations .



True, but we (should) have learned it is cheaper to buy what you need than to conquer the source.


You have the wrong end of the stick. We wont see a WW2 stlye land grab instead we see conflicts in the mould post war operations that combated communist insurgency's. Also think of how the CIA installed the Shah in Iran.
Things will start off as they are now with various war lords receiving US backing . When this fails to secure natural resources for the US look for the involvement of a large number of US troops in Somalia and Sudan .




Is this a genuine plea for socialism?


Just an observation if you think that "Socialism" would help Africa then start a thread on that matter and I will contributed my thoughts on that matter. IMO the whole China - Taiwam situation is odd . The US will fail to in its bid to have its corporations win the 2nd Scramble for Africa.








[edit on 21-4-2008 by xpert11]



posted on Apr, 22 2008 @ 10:45 AM
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reply to post by xpert11
 


Expert11 warns us
to be wary of Chinese expansionist tendencies into Africa. He worries such places as Somalia are wide open. The US abandoned Somalia after local warlords killed 18 US Rangers in the erstwhile capital, Mogadishu. (It is located at 2 deg N latitude). The Rangers were sent there to protect the UN food distribution network. A genuine mission of mercy.

Somalia
occupies the Horn of Africa. So named for its perceived resemblance to a rhino’s horn. Geographers have a unique ability to find such representations in their maps. The Horn was useful in ancient times as a landmark for sailors heading towards Egypt or into the Indian Ocean depending on which direction they were sailing. In the grand colonial days before the demise of empires after WW2, Somalia was divided between Great Britain and Italy! Can you imagine two more dissimilar occupiers? It’s no wonder Somalis don’t know UP from DOWN.

Somalia
covers 240,000 square miles, about the size of Texas. It shares a 980 miles long border disputed with Ethiopia, a place more famous in the Bible then in 2008. See Note 1. It occupies the AFAR Triangle so named because is “afar place” from anywhere. The last remains of LUCY were found there by the notable Leakey family. Everybody's great-grandmother, 10,000 times removed. Population is 9.5 million people (from the last census in 1975). Annual GDP per person is $600. CIA estimate for 2007. Life expectancy for men is 47 years, 5 months. Also from CIA World Factbook. Their spelling, not mine

One of the major
and traditional industries of Somalis is the recovery of SALT from the seawater. Hard working men go to the beach and make trenches for the high tide to fill. Then as the tide goes out, the water is trapped. The brilliant sun - near the Equator - drives off the water leaving behind SALT which is a cash crop even today. Working all day may bring a man 50 cents for the hard labor. The Somali people are very industrious, but are plainly whipsawed by poverty heaped on more poverty. You cannot do something with nothing.

So the Chinese want Somalia? I think not.

Note 1.
Many old people will recall from history the Italian invasion of Abyssinia later renamed Ethiopia. Emperor Haile Selassie went before the League of Nations pleading for its aid in stopping the Italian army. His cries fell on deaf ears. Then when Japan’s representative made the famous walkout in protest of the League taking up the issue of the Japanese Army's brutal "Rape of Nanking" that spelled the death knell for the League. With no power to uphold the right or to defend the weak the League had been stillborn.

[edit on 4/22/2008 by donwhite]



posted on Apr, 23 2008 @ 12:36 AM
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How much is a handful of sand worth ?
Vietnam could be put in the same as boat as Somalia. Other then rubber Vietnam was wasn't worth much in terms of natural resources . Vietnam was perceived to be politically very important because of the flawed domino theory. China current interest includes supplying arms to Zimbabwe . Somalia will become politically important much like Vietnam did once the US catches up to the game .

China will view Somalia as a place where the US intrusion on there interests can be stopped and the US will come to view Somalia as its foot in the door much like Iraq was spouse to be to the ME.



posted on Apr, 23 2008 @ 05:25 PM
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reply to post by xpert11
 



How much is a handful of sand worth? Vietnam was perceived to be politically very important because of the flawed domino theory. China current interest includes supplying arms to Zimbabwe.


Commercial competition.
The US is the No. 1 Arms supplier around the world when measured in dollar value. Russia is No. 2 and China No. 3. Any of them will sell to anyone with the cash.

Dichotomy.
The Defense Department ships guns and so on, meant to kill people. The more expensive the equipment, the more people it will kill. The State Department attempts to find ways to advance our interests - watch that word interests - in non-violent ways. Persuasion versus coercion. There is lots of money and good paying jobs in coercion. There is very little glamor in the persuasion trade.



Somalia will become politically important much like Vietnam did once the US catches up to the game. China will view Somalia as a place where the US intrusion on there interests can be stopped and the US will come to view Somalia as its foot in the door much like Iraq was spouse to be to the ME.


Our horse
has died. We beat it to death! His name was Somalia. While life in the region around year 1800 may not have been too good, it surely is worse in year 2008.

[edit on 4/23/2008 by donwhite]



posted on Apr, 24 2008 @ 08:41 PM
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reply to post by xpert11
 

I'm thinking more or less the same. China will try to tackle the US using economic means.
However from what I've been reading lately, my feeling is there's a trend that the US might be preparing for stronger confrontation. They're not necessarily intend to do it, but they're preparing for it. And I don't think the US is bluffing.
China issue is probably the number one issue in the authorities' mind right now. More than anything, even more than the middle east, everything else is becoming a proxy of the China issue.



posted on Apr, 24 2008 @ 09:22 PM
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reply to post by Jazzyguy
 



China will try to tackle the US using economic means.


China has so many internal problems it will have little to no time or money to engage in armed conflict outside its current territory. China borders North Korea. China’s major concern there is that the NK government will be so bad that millions of starving NKs will cross the border into China. China and the new Russia have settled all their border disputes that in the 1960s-1970s brought on battalion level clashes.

China’s far western border region is mountainous and dry. It is not a place you’d go on vacation. China wants it - including Tibet - so that its heavily populated interior is protected from any incursions from the west. That is mostly a hang-over attitude from the far past. Neither the Afghan, the Uzbek or the Kazak are likely to invade China. Not in our lifetimes. Yet, like any nation, it does want some effective degree of control over entry and exit at its borders. Iran and China have just signed a 20 year oil and natural gas contract. No war zone there.

As I wrote elsewhere, it looks very much as if the Taiwan issue is becoming a non-issue. Many of the high end electronic parts in upscale electronic devices are made in Taiwan, shipped to China and marked “Made in China” and sold abroad. As the level of commerce between Taiwan and China increases, whatever felt need one had to conquer the other will die of its own inertia. IMO.

The southern border with Vietnam and Laos is secure. Thailand and Myanmar are no threat to anyone. Any troubles China is causing in Africa is being LEVERAGED against us just as al Qaeda has leveraged us. China breaks wind and America orders a truckload of toilet paper. Not smart on our part.

I say the biggest threat China poses to the US and anywhere is AVIAN FLU.

[edit on 4/25/2008 by donwhite]



posted on Apr, 24 2008 @ 09:57 PM
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Originally posted by donwhite
China has so many internal problems it will have little to no time or money to engage in armed conflict outside its current territory.

China doesn't care, china is delusional. Only drastic things can change china's behaviour.
China consider face is more important than lives, more than anything. If you're expecting china will have a western rationality, you're dead wrong. And I mean dead wrong, it's fatal.



posted on Apr, 25 2008 @ 09:05 AM
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reply to post by Jazzyguy
 



" . . china is delusional. Only drastic things can change china's behaviour. China consider face is more important than lives, more than anything. If you're expecting china will have a western rationality, you're dead wrong."


As if the United States post the Nine Eleven Event is NOT delusional?

Commentators I read divide China into the INTERIOR zone and the COASTAL zone. This division is not entirely along geographical lines. The very large interior city we once knew as Chung-king is deeply into the new industrialization process. But in the main, the interior zone is still in the same backward developmental stage - 3rd world - as when Mao pronounced his Great Leap Forward. Whereas the Coastal zone is quickly moving into 1st world expectations.

China’s $5 t. gross domestic product is divided roughly into 25% produced by the interior zone population (1 b.) and 75% is produced by the coastal zone population (300 m.). That in turn works out to a Coastal zone personal GDP per annum of $12,500, while the interior zone GDP is $1,250. The great economic disparity (10 to 1) existing between the Interior zone and Coastal zone is a problem that points towards China dividing into TWO!

Just as in any other country, the ruling Central Committee of the Communist Party - CCCP - finds strong resistance on the part of the 300,000,000 newly prosperous coastal Chinese to be taxed heavily so that the 1,000,000,000 interior people “left behind” to borrow from Tim LaHaye, can be brought along to share in the nation’s rapid growth and rising prosperity.

Six months or so ago I read in the past 4 or 5 years China had experienced over 40,000 civil disturbances large enough to require the PLA - People’s Liberation Army - to restore order. The same story said in at least two instances shots were fired. China is the opposite of an open country so these numbers could have been larger. Because this information originates inside China by anti-government groups, the numbers could be exaggerated.

Surveillance. I assume the US has more than 1 KH12 parked over China. Our Government would know of those disturbances if they took place. For valid reasons the CIA cannot share that info with us. But somewhere in W-DC we know when, where, how many were involved and what the nature of the PRC response was. It is plausible that China’s demonstration of its shoot-down of a satellite capability could have been a warning to us NOT to park ours up there. Our recent atom bomb mis-shipment to Taiwan could have been our response to that or to some other threat China had sent via diplomatic channels unknown to us ordinary mortals.

I surmise most if not all of our China HUMINT comes from Taiwanese sources. It is never wise for a great power - the US- to be dependent on client states - Taiwan and Israel - for its intelligence for several reasons; 1) their motives are not our motives, 2) their interests are not our interests. Watch that word, interests. It carries much hidden weight. The gross failure of US HUMINT is to a large extent why we are where we are in the Middle East. A quagmire! We don’t know up from down.

CONCLUSION.
Although China’s PLA is large in numbers, it is not trained, equipped or prepared for action outside of China. The PRC has no logistical system capable of sustaining forces at or above the battalion level outside the Chinese mainland. The real purpose served by the 3 million man PLA is to keep internal order and of course, to maintain the current autocrats in power. IMO.

The only threat China poses to the US is the same threat the USSR posed. The WEST in general and the US in particular have always caused or allowed conditions ripe for revolt to exist in their subservient countries. We routinely support and have even installed cruel and violent dictators - called presidents when we put them into office - who will kowtow to us. Look at Pakistan. Look at Iraq. That deprived condition is in turn fertile soil for conflict. What we like to call a terrorist. That's a nationalist who is against us. Nationalist patriots - look at Vietnam - number in the 10s of 1000s of dissatisfied people all over Africa and Central America which China can roil anytime it wants and can support at little financial outlay. They can leverage us. Like al Qaeda does.

But sleep easy, China will never post 1,000,000 men in Somalia.

[edit on 4/25/2008 by donwhite]



posted on Apr, 27 2008 @ 06:23 PM
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reply to post by donwhite
 


First and foremost, I know that the US will likely win the war if it's military, if it's economy, I'm not sure.

But now you agree that they're both delusional, that is a cause for concern.
China is not USSR, China's economic power has global reach. I already stated that economic mean is their preferred method.

Yes it's true china is divided into interior and coastal zone. But they're 1.3 billion strong. The 300 m you said, the 75%, the coastal zone population, that is as big as the US. Although GDP wise is still small compare to US, it's rising, not declining.

Even the chinese great famine doesn't destroy the communist party, they're strong.


who will kowtow to us

Knock it off will ya? The chinese is all about faces. I already told you, stop forcing your western psyche toward the situation. Who do you think invent the word kowtow? They want you to be the one who kowtow to them, not the other way around.



posted on Apr, 27 2008 @ 07:56 PM
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posted by Jazzyguy
China is not USSR, China's economic power has global reach. I already stated that economic mean is their preferred method.


Kowtow. Face. Right on the first, wrong on the second. Western people are just as concerned about “saving face” as any oriental. I don’t know where that story got started, perhaps the same place the story that orientals don’t care about life as we occidentals?

You wrote earlier that China was in Africa seeking raw materials. You said the US also needs those same materials and therefore there was opportunity for competition in the extreme as by proxy wars over resources. Water, food and oil are the only resources I see armed combat over in the next 20 years.

Of water Africa has none to spare. Oil is only in Sudan, Nigeria and Libya. And food to sell is mostly in the Western Hemisphere. Australia is supplying China with iron ore, and natural gas for plastics is coming from Iran. I just mean to point out there are few natural resources that are in such short supply that the US and PRC would engage in war proxy or direct, to have access to.

Egypt is the dominant power in eastern Africa north of the Sahara. The Republic of South Africa is the dominant power in the south of Africa below the equator. Nigeria has the people and oil to be the dominant power in west Africa but apparently the oil companies and gangsters rule Nigeria so for now, it’s out of the picture.

It would be a reach for the US and China to go to war (again) over Korea. Russia and China do not have any conflict of interests as far as I know. Southeast Asia, Malaysia and Indonesia have more people than they can feed right now.

As I see it, there is likely to be nothing more than commercial competition between the US and the PRC. So far, they make things mostly we do not make, and vice versa. I look forward to 20 years of peace between the No. 1 and No. 2 world powers. See you at Toys R Us!



posted on Apr, 27 2008 @ 08:58 PM
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reply to post by donwhite
 


China is ALL about face, US is not all about it. Not that the US doesn't care about face, it's just not as extreme as china, it's a different culture.


You wrote earlier that China was in Africa seeking raw materials.

No, that's not me.


It would be a reach for the US and China to go to war (again) over Korea. Russia and China do not have any conflict of interests as far as I know.


You're thinking about conflict of interests, that is a western psyche. It's more than that, china wants to dominate (revenge and jealous of) the western powers, US and UK. China is probably ill, their heads are in the clouds. They kept saying about heaven, harmonious society or what, when the fact is it's all about feeling as if they are gods, and they should and can get away with everything (since they're gods). You know, woo woo. I'm talking about the communist elite in particular, not all chinese are like that of course.


As I see it, there is likely to be nothing more than commercial competition between the US and the PRC.

That's what I've been trying to say, although it's more than just a competition, it's domination. China is trying to dominate the US using economic means. But the US might be preparing for something bigger.

add:
The US definitely has a big plan for china, the US maybe raising the oil price on purpose also to contain china (among other reasons). If this plan works, then china is a non issue.

[edit on Sun, 27 Apr 08 by Jazzyguy]



posted on Apr, 28 2008 @ 12:01 AM
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A war between China and America can be described with one word, BLOCKADE.

The US would seek to form a blockade around China, this would stop their economy in a matter of days. In recent years the US have been building up their ability to create a blockade of China, and the Chinese have been increasing their ability to break a blockade.

In order to break a blockade the Chinese would need a strong anti-navy, mainly coming in the form of submarines and anti-ship missiles. They would also look to build up a blue water navy, perhaps with a few aircraft carriers. They would need to bridge the technology gap by stealing from the US such systems as the AEGIS missile defence.

I also think that the war in Iraq and the global economic crisis are a prelude to this. The US could have invaded Iraq to make it easier to cut off oil supplies to China. It may have also been their intention to leapfrog into Iran. China and most likely Russia have countered this by supporting the Iraqi resistence through Iran, aswell as equipping Iran.

The economic crisis may have been intetionally created by the US in order to prepare the world for a blockade of China (I don't know how, but WW2 brought the world out of the great depression). The weakening of the US dollar may be linked to this, perhaps as a way of disuading China to sell off their reserves (they would lose alot of money in the exchange). It would also make it easier/cheaper for the US or it's allies to buy back the reserves.

China could have also used North Korea as a tool (as they do) to help proliferate nuclear weapons into the middle east, through Syria. This would have caused all sorts of problems for the US and detracted their attention away from the asia-pacific.



posted on Apr, 28 2008 @ 12:16 AM
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Funny you should mention this .. today a Chinese freighter was being tracked by a Nuclear Trident Submarine (Britain's only one). The freighter was delivering buku ammo and weapons to Zimbabwae to support the militaristic government there is aims of keeping the people starving and helpless.

The US is adahemently against this and learned of the



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