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From The fantasy is over, we must partition Iraq and get out now, Times Online
In much of Iraq everything points to a looming conflict between Shi’ites and Sunnis. To all who know these people, this is an utter tragedy, brought on by the coalition’s continued presence and its failure to establish order. All recent experience of such conflict, whether in Ulster, Palestine, Sudan or Yugoslavia, sees it resolved into population movement and ethnic cleansing. This is now proceeding bloodily in and round Baghdad. It will bring an awful residue of ghost districts, refugee camps, revenge attacks and safe havens.
In Yugoslavia the solution, abetted by western intervention, was partition. In Iraq America began the same process by guaranteeing de facto autonomy to Kurdistan. That logic must now be followed to its conclusion. Partition was always the most likely outcome. This view is at last gaining traction in Washington, advocated by Joe Biden, the Senate foreign relations chairman.
The agreement is seen by many as a turning point in Western/Arab relations, creating the animosity that we see today, as the Kurds under Russia, the Shiites under France, and the Sunnis under Britain, broke out into mass regional war, provoking the Treaty of Versailles, which led to WWII."
Dr. Jane Wykowsky, Harvard
Islam divides into two main sects - Sunnis (followers of the Sunna, or traditions: 85-90 per cent) and Shias (followers of the Shiat Ali, or "Party of Ali": 10-15 per cent). Often compared to Catholic-Protestant split in Christianity, but has not been as divisive or bloody - until now.
Background:
656: Twenty-four years after Muhammad's death, a crisis over succession leads to Sunni- Shia rift. Sunnis accept rule of elected caliphs, while Shias recognise only imams, descendants of the Prophet through his daughter Fatima and his cousin and son-in-law Ali.
680: Prophet's grandson Hussein is killed by Sunni forces at Karbala, a martyrdom mourned each year by Shias on the day of Ashura.
The Current Situation
Let's take a look at the document that I introduced in my opening statement.
* Stabilizing Iraq: An Assessment of the Security Situation
Besides detailing a lot of what I have already covered, they include a map showing the breakup of the different ethnicities in Iraq. This map is rather interesting.
The Kurdish region in northern Iraq has already formed its own government, its own military, and even its own flag. It is ready to split apart now.
* No retreat by Barzani in flag row
It is an interesting article. Especially about the part of the Kurdish nation suceeding from the rest of Iraq. Why would they do this? They are done with the fighting. The Kurds have been avoiding conflicts when possible, and have already setup to move out on their own.
ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey's top general said Thursday his army — which has been massing troops on the border with Iraq — was prepared to attack separatist Kurdish guerrillas in a cross-border offensive.
Gen. Yasar Buyukanit said the military was ready and awaiting government orders for an incursion, putting pressure on the government to support an offensive that risks straining ties with the United States and Europe and raising tensions with Iraqi Kurds.
"As soldiers, we are ready," Buyukanit said at an international security conference in Istanbul.
Let's take a look at Czechoslovakia. Due to the growing problems with national tensions, the Parliment took it upon themselves to dissolve the country and form the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1993. It has been done before. It will be done again.
By 1992 the Yugoslav Federation was falling apart. Nationalism had once again replaced communism as the dominant force in the Balkans.
From Sunday Forum: Split up Iraq three ways
This unusual arrangement was greeted with skepticism in the mid-'90s (mostly because nobody understood exactly what an "entity" was, or how it differed from a "state" or a "province") but it has worked surprisingly well. Even though the country as a whole is still led by an international governor (its sixth since the end of the war), the violence has stopped -- maybe permanently.
From PKK only problem with N. Iraq, Turkey tells US
During talks with Cheney, Ankara expresses willingness to expand ties with northern Iraq once the region is completely cleared of terrorist elements.
From Sunday Forum: Split up Iraq three ways
Giving each of Iraq's three main groups control over a specific territory, with limited local power and access to natural resources, might be just the carrot that would coax Iraqis to stabilize their country at the local level.
Originally posted by TLomon
Let's take a look at the history of Yugoslavia. There was a reason I chose not to use this as a reference. It is clearly a textbook example on how not to do it. The period of course is during the rule of Milošević. Interesting man, Milošević. While ethnic regions were requesting independence, Milošević talked about centralizing government. When the constitutional limit of his term came to an end, he ran for president in another region. When the voters wanted someone else, he refused to give up his office.
From PKK only problem with N. Iraq, Turkey tells US
During talks with Cheney, Ankara expresses willingness to expand ties with northern Iraq once the region is completely cleared of terrorist elements.
It helps when you read news that isn't from last year. Turkey is not opposed to a Kurdistan nation, but rather the constant attacks from a terrorist group originating in the same area. The problem my opponent is suggesting is non-existent.
We have told him that our sole problem with northern Iraq is the presence of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK),� the diplomat, who asked not to be named, told the Turkish Daily News.
My opponent has already conceeded the point that Kurdistan is a possibility. This completely contradicts his earlier statement that it isn't viable, as he has agrees an independant nation could very well be formed.
That is great. The people of Kurdistan agree as well.
Maybe in our lifetime but it will be fleeting if you consider the stance of Turkey. Remember the topic, seperating the peoples of Iraq will likely improve peace and stability.
The oil industry dominates Iraq's economy, traditionally accounting for nearly 95% of the country's revenues.
"Most of Iraq's oil production comes from the south of Iraq and is exported via the Persian Gulf because of repeated sabotage attacks on facilities in the north," said Mohamed Zine, IHS regional manager for the Middle East.
Excluding both the opening and closing statements, only two images and no more than 5 references can be included for each post.
From IHS: Iraq's Oil Production Capacity Could Double in Near Term
However, the Iraq Atlas estimates indicate that given a stable political and civil environment, Iraq has the potential to produce four million barrels a day in the near term if necessary investments are made in repairing and modernizing facilities.
From Iraq: Shiite Leader Calls for Federal State
Al-Hakim asserted that, "he who accepts the existence of a Kurdistan region, should accept the existence of regions in… other parts.
From Should we partition Iraq?
"The Iraq we're trying to herd back together," Peters wrote in July 2003, "consists of three distinct nations caged under a single, bloodstained flag."
From Shiite push for autonomy endangers Iraq's fragile coalition
Dulaimi warned that it was wrong to debate any proposal that could lead to autonomous regions until after Parliament had the chance to rewrite portions of the Constitution. He was joined by an official from the secular coalition of the former interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi. Some Shiite legislators from the Fadhila Party and the coalition loyal to the rebel cleric Moktada al-Sadr say they are also concerned that Hakim's party is racing ahead too quickly.
Originally posted by TLomon
As my opponent has so eloquently stated, "this is a debate and I'm in it to win". He seems to forget that there are rules to follow. Let me remind him of another one.
Excluding both the opening and closing statements, only two images and no more than 5 references can be included for each post.
Point and Counter-Point
# noun: the act of referring or consulting (Example: "Reference to an encyclopedia produced the answer")
# noun: the most direct or specific meaning of a word or expression; the class of objects that an expression refers to
# noun: the relation between a word or phrase and the object or idea it refers to (Example: "He argued that reference is a consequence of conditioned reflexes")
Let's take a look at the history of Yugoslavia. There was a reason I chose not to use this as a reference. It is clearly a textbook example on how not to do it.
Do you think that if the majority Shia get the Promised Land, Basra, oil, the rest of the Iraqi's will just be fine and well with that?
From Sunday Forum: Split up Iraq three ways
This unusual arrangement was greeted with skepticism in the mid-'90s (mostly because nobody understood exactly what an "entity" was, or how it differed from a "state" or a "province") but it has worked surprisingly well. Even though the country as a whole is still led by an international governor (its sixth since the end of the war), the violence has stopped -- maybe permanently.
From WHO opens conference in Syria on Iraqi refugee health needs
Some 750,000 Iraqis have also fled to Jordan and 200,000 to both Egypt and Lebanon, driven out of Iraq by the turmoil that followed the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein.
History shows the Bosnia example to be true. Why would Iraq be any different?
BANJA LUKA, Bosnia and Herzegovina: The police fired tear gas at Bosnian Serb rioters Tuesday to prevent them from storming the U.S. Consulate during a rally to protest Kosovo's declaration of independence.
My opponent has stated that people don't want to move from their homes. However, he is forgetting that due to the violence all over the country, this has already happened in several, if not most, areas.
From WHO opens conference in Syria on Iraqi refugee health needs
Some 750,000 Iraqis have also fled to Jordan and 200,000 to both Egypt and Lebanon, driven out of Iraq by the turmoil that followed the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein.
People want to feel safe. Safety is part of turning a house into a home. Houses can be built. Homes have to be made through ensuring security to the family living inside it.
The issue of Palestine should be the subject of another debate. The list of problems plaguing that country are just as extensive as Iraq's.
* Central Iraq (Sunni)
* Southern Iraq (Shi'ite)
* Kurdistan (Kurd)
*snip*
To balance the assets of the nation as a whole, we run into a snag, but it is not unfixable. Kurdistan has oil fields to the north. Southern Iraq has oil fields to the south. However, there are no oil fields in Central Iraq. This can be resolved by giving 20% of oil proceeds to Central Iraq by a mutual agreement of the other two. This percentage would be revised yearly, if needed, based on the population percentage of the Sunni when compared to the other two.
Early on it looked like TLomon might pull this one off, especially when Intrepid took the risky gambit of all but skipping his opening to see if he could leave TLomon without a sense of direction.
When Intrepid showed up though things started to change. Intrepid scored big points with the Palestine analogy, he successfully defeated the suggestion that Turkey posed no threat to Kurdistan, and the Yugoslavia argument did stay relevant, though it was contested.
TLomon sort of made a superman out of Holbrooke, lawyered with the rules too much (never a good thing to call somebody on the rules and be wrong), and above all walked straight into the Palestine argument by suggesting economic dependence and a neutral historic capital city.
Ultimately the biggest missing ingredient in the debate was a model of 3 functioning, stable states in place of Iraq. That could have tipped the balance, but there was never really a complete vision of what could be, so I came out pretty sure that peace and stability were unattainable while the division persists.