It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
Originally posted by grey580
Slippery slope here guys.
Without proof or evidence all we have left is faith.
Many will argue the point, however every single religion on earth believes in something greater than themselves without a shred of evidence. Oh and with a really big book of some sort.
And everytime there is some claim of religious evidence. Usually it's as sparse as a claim of ufos.
Originally posted by Badge01
reply to post by IchiNiSan
Huh? So no one can make estimates based on current hypotheses but god?
The Universe is so huge in fact that we’ll have to play around with scales so one can get a better idea.
Let's imagine that the entire universe that we have seen in all the worlds telescopes, all the galaxies, all trillion of them, extending out 13 billion light years in every direction is shrunk down to the size of a golf ball.
If we do a volume calculation, the actual universe contains 10 to the power 60 of those golf balls! Wow, I guess we didn't shrink things down far enough, but this will have to do. So how big a volume would 10 to the power 60 golf balls fill up? Try a sphere 850 light years across! So imagine a mass of golf balls that big, and each one of those golf balls contains all the stars and galaxies that we can see through our telescopes!!
For arguments sake, lets imagine that primitive life happens once in the lifetime of a trillion galaxies, and out of those only one in a trillion ever evolves out of its womb planet into a space-faring civilization. In this example then we are still left with an astounding 10 to the par 75 advanced societies - more alien cultures than the number of atoms composing planet Earth!
Again, for some perspective on such a gargantuan number, there are more advanced civilizations partying it up around the galaxies than there are atoms in every single grain of sand on all the beaches and deserts in the world, and then some.
Originally posted by mikesingh
Now what would Drake say to this?
What about the theory mentioned in the article I cited in the opening post? Would using our planet as an evolutionary example produce more firm numbers for the supposition? 'Cause, we ( me and my mouse ) have at least a good guess of how the flora and fauna has evolved here. From that template, couldn't a good guess be formulated for other planets within a "habitable zone"?
"We have, of course, only one example of intelligent life (indeed, of life of any type). That means we cannot possibly estimate from this single instance what is the probability of life on other worlds unless we are completely confident we understand all the relevant evolutionary processes.
Originally posted by Scramjet76
I believe there to be better methods for answering "the question."
Seth Shostak, senior astronomer at the SETI Institute, had this comment on Watson's work: "We have, of course, only one example of intelligent life (indeed, of life of any type). That means we cannot possibly estimate from this single instance what is the probability of life on other worlds unless we are completely confident we understand all the relevant evolutionary processes. Watson argues that intelligent life will be dismayingly rare: There is no way to prove that is true. On the other hand, if the converse is the case — if the galaxy is home to many intelligences — that is amenable to proof. We should do the experiment."
Originally posted by MrPenny
'Cause, we ( me and my mouse ) have at least a good guess of how the flora and fauna has evolved here.
What do you think "the question" is.
People keep saying that the presence of sentient life on Earth proves that the 'answer' is at least "1(one". But that's not strictly true.
We are not -yet- a broadcasting civilization, except in the passive sense.
We are "Listening" but we're not broadcasting a multi-Gigawatt beam. We don't yet have enough power to spare for that kind of effort.
Originally posted by Badge01
reply to post by atlasastro
You might be confused. That link has little to do with this discussion.
It's about the psychological basis for alien abduction stories.
The Drake equation is about the potential for sentient communication.
Originally posted by Nohup
Otherwise, we have no freakin' clue. And that puts a serious hurt on the equation.
Originally posted by rawsom
I believe that the Drake Equation is, in fact, quite correct and can be used to accurately calculate number of alien civilizations.