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Uh oh...Is Drake's Equation really reliable?

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posted on Apr, 15 2008 @ 08:10 PM
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WFA, I agree there is some apparent mutual exclusivity in those two concerns, but it might not be as important as it first appears.

First, Von Newmann probes will spread at a geometrical speed. They also are not constrained by problems of space travel as a 'being' might be.

A being is limited to sequential exploration, whereas Von Newmann probes fan out, and are immune to inertial problems, such as acceleration time and braking into orbital speed.




[edit on 15-4-2008 by Badge01]




posted on Apr, 15 2008 @ 11:09 PM
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Originally posted by WitnessFromAfar

So I guess you're also not going to mention the Sumerians, who seemed to know about Pluto just a bit before 1932, and whose mapping of our Solar System started from the edge in, instead of the (highly Earth-centric) inside out? I think those points are worth mentioning, if you're going to use them as a standard for 'bridging the gap' I humbly submit for you, your bridge sir.

-WFA


Even more interesting was the Dogon tribe and their knowledge of Sirius B - The Brown Dwarf companion star of Sirius A. Not only did they know it was a binary star but they also named Sirius B after a seed that was small and brown and was of a high mass/density... so they even got the physics of the star correct too - including orbital periods etc.

They knew that Sirius B was smaller and denser than Sirius A. One of the arguments I heard to debunk this was that the atmosphere was much clearer back then when the Dogon Tribe first started their customs and they may have seen it with the naked eye... (ummm yeah right! *scoff*) A nice excuse for why our scientists didn't find it until the early 1900's.

WFA - I'm guessing you already know all this (and more) with your impressive encyclopedic knowledge but I thought I'd bring it up to augment your previous post on Pluto, and for the small few who may not have known about it.

Amazing and Intriguing!

 


Nohup, how do you feel about this particular case? Is there a possibility (even remote) that ancient EBE's had some hand in teaching the Dogons this information?

Cheers,
IRM


[edit on 15/4/08 by InfaRedMan]



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 06:36 AM
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Originally posted by InfaRedMan
Even more interesting was the Dogon tribe and their knowledge of Sirius B - The Brown Dwarf companion star of Sirius A...A nice excuse for why our scientists didn't find it until the early 1900's.


Actually, Sirius B is a white dwarf, and has been known to astronomers since the mid 19th century.

Second, anthropologist Walter Van Beek found that the Dogon's knowledge of Sirius B may have come from Marcel Griaule, the French anthropologist who first described the Dogon's supposed knowledge, himself. Van Beek talked to the same Dogon that Griaule did, and found their knowledge of the star from Griaule; only those Dogon who spoke with Griaule know of it. Furthermore, Griaule claimed the Dogon call Sirius sigu tolo, but Van Beek found the Dogon actually call it dana tolo. The Dogon themselves do not agree with that sigu tolo may be, according to some it may be Venus.



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 07:09 AM
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Originally posted by WitnessFromAfar
So I guess you're also not going to mention the Sumerians, who seemed to know about Pluto just a bit before 1932, and whose mapping of our Solar System started from the edge in, instead of the (highly Earth-centric) inside out?


Wait...huh? What?

Where are you getting this information from?

If the Sumerians knew of Pluto, why didn't they know of Eris, which is larger? And what "edge" are you talking about? Why would aliens consider "Pluto" the edge of the solar system, and not the Kuiper Belt or Oort Cloud?



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 07:15 AM
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Originally posted by SaviorComplex

Originally posted by WitnessFromAfar
So I guess you're also not going to mention the Sumerians, who seemed to know about Pluto just a bit before 1932, and whose mapping of our Solar System started from the edge in, instead of the (highly Earth-centric) inside out?


Wait...huh? What?

Where are you getting this information from?

If the Sumerians knew of Pluto, why didn't they know of Eris, which is larger? And what "edge" are you talking about? Why would aliens consider "Pluto" the edge of the solar system, and not the Kuiper Belt or Oort Cloud?

I think it was Sitchin that said the Sumarians counted us as the 7th planet (counting inwards from "Niribu" )but.....
Quite a few of the old civilsations new of the 9th planet (wether they saw pluto or Eris is up for debate i suppose) Some of the buildings in mayan culture map out out solar system (or they seem to)
Maybe they weren't as ancient as we think they were. Prehaps they had telescopes or something simular.



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 10:08 AM
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Originally posted by Acidtastic
I think it was Sitchin that said the Sumarians counted us as the 7th planet (counting inwards from "Niribu" )but.....
Quite a few of the old civilsations new of the 9th planet (wether they saw pluto or Eris is up for debate i suppose) Some of the buildings in mayan culture map out out solar system (or they seem to)
Maybe they weren't as ancient as we think they were. Prehaps they had telescopes or something simular.


There are still problems with this "theory." The Sumerians only knew of 5 planets, not nine or 7.

Second, Sitchin bases his claims on the so-called Seal V24, which according to him shows the sun and 11 planets. However, several questions arise about this and problems...

www.sitchiniswrong.com...

Could you please show documentation of other civilizations "knowing" about 9 planets?



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 10:10 AM
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reply to post by SaviorComplex
 


If they cover up most of what history is, why do you think sitchin is being level with us all. How would you know he is not just giving them the correct stuff, while giving us nonsense.



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 10:22 AM
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Originally posted by GrayFox

However, to elaborate a little more on it, if the development of technology, to include self-replicating, spacefaring Von Neumann machines was common for civilizations to do, then we would be talking about an almost viral spread of the things, coming from huge variety of aliens...


That's true. But let's just guess that most aliens would put more intelligence into the explorers. As you said, if the machines became too viral, then they could definitely pose a huge problem... even to their creators...


I had never heard of Von Neumann machines before I read this thread. I have to say, this would make a great Sci-Fi story. In fact, I think some media has already touched on it. For anyone interested, the game Mass Effect features villains seemingly based on this very concept.



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 10:24 AM
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Originally posted by andy1033
If they cover up most of what history is, why do you think sitchin is being level with us all. How would you know he is not just giving them the correct stuff, while giving us nonsense.


What? What in the world are you talking about? I've read this a few times, and am still having trouble figuring out what you're getting at.



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 01:50 PM
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reply to post by SaviorComplex
 


Hello SaviorComplex, it’s nice to interact with you again, we’ve been in different threads as of late it seems


You’re questions of course are quite justified, and I’ll state for the record that I don’t necessarily agree with much of Sitchin’s work, however the Cuneform seal in question does appear to illustrate planets from my modern perspective.

I searched for information to support the possibility of Sumerian Astronomy, and found some interesting stuff at a few sites I trust:

Sumerian Astronomy:
www.physorg.com...

Image of disk containing Sumerian records of an impact event:
www.physorg.com...

Detractors for this evidence cite primarily the lack of an impact crater as evidence that this didn’t happen, these folks forget about the Tunguska Event, that disproves their argument in it’s entirety. (If I’m wrong, please let me know).


Most of the problem with Sitchin’s work (and that of others on the topic) is that Sumerian is such an ancient language (with no known language descendents) that it’s extremely difficult to translate. There has been some recent work done in this regard though:

Sumerian Language Deciphering:
news.nationalgeographic.com...


I guess I just wanted to make clear that I used the word ‘seemed’ in my above post. I’m not actually 100% solid on any of this, but the apparent connection seemed to me to be enough to mention the case.


Also, if I’m not mistaken, in reference to the Dogon Tribe’s knowledge, the French could well have influenced the Dogon’s views on the matter, there is evidence to support this, you are correct. I do find that explanation lacking in credence though, when taken into context of the ‘Disks’ and the reports of Alien bodies in the cave. Once again, I have no original knowledge of these events, I’m just talking about what’s out there. If you have information on these cases, I’d love to hear about it!


-WFA



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 02:17 PM
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Originally posted by SaviorComplex
I had never heard of Von Neumann machines before I read this thread. I have to say, this would make a great Sci-Fi story. In fact, I think some media has already touched on it. For anyone interested, the game Mass Effect features villains seemingly based on this very concept.


A great game called Star Control II (aka The Ur-Quan Masters) also kinda used the idea of Von Neumann machines. I think Stargate SG-1 too. Lots of other shows, games, movies, and books have probably used self-replicating machines as well. And... I really need to pick up Mass Effect sometime. I almost got it as my first 360 game, but I just didn't.



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 03:08 PM
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Originally posted by SaviorComplex
I had never heard of Von Neumann machines before I read this thread. I have to say, this would make a great Sci-Fi story.


Fred Saberhagen did a whole series of sci-fi books on Von Neumann machines, although he called them "berserkers," because of their tendency to fly around randomly in the galaxy and destroy entire planets to reproduce themselves.



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 03:48 PM
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reply to post by Badge01
 


That's really good point that I didn't think about before. You're right.

Also, I would assume that it's possible a species is utilizing a method of travel that also elimates the 'problems' associated most often with Biologicals travelling such distances.

But you're right, thanks for thinking that through with me. I knew you'd have some good perspective!

-WFA



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 04:07 PM
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Hmmm, still seeing a problem in post-singularity propulsion theories in terms of biologicals being transported this way and I still think I'm right on the mark that there are no EBE's visiting our planet IMHO.



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 04:21 PM
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reply to post by Palasheea
 


Palasheea, I agree, especially from a modern human perspective, there are many problems with 'instant travel' theories, that prevent them from becoming practical methods of travel.

That's one of the reasons I started this thread:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

To get a better grip on just what those problems (and theories) were.

I foresee several methods a sufficiently advanced race could use for (to the viewer) intantaneous travel:
1) Wormholes
2) Folding Space
3) Gravity Manipulation
4) (one I think you'll like) Projecting Ones Physical Self to another point in space time in a non-physical manner
5) Travel in 'sub-space' or another dimension where our physics do not apply.

Granted, there is no definitive proof that there are species utilizing these methods, but in my view, these are promising methods that could well be accomplished given a long enough Research & Development period (A type II civilization should be able to perform some of these feats).

I hope that helps illustrate where I'm coming from on that topic


-WFA



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 04:22 PM
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Originally posted by Badge01
1. How likely is it that a sophisticated 'craft' able to traverse inter-galactic space would have a simple star map up on the wall?


Yes, simple written directions would work just as well. "Fly 53 light years straight 'up,' hang a left at Tau Ceti, continue on for 12 light years until you see a large orange gas giant called Jupiter. Ask for directions to Earth. It's blue with a large single moon. You can't miss it."


P.S. -- Here's the Betty Hill Star Map with the stars made smaller and the lines taken out of it.



Or course, Betty and everybody else might have just assumed that these dots represented stars. But what if they represented subspace portals or Stargates, or something like that, rather than stars? Then this map wouldn't be worth diddly.

[edit on 16-4-2008 by Nohup]



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 10:37 PM
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reply to post by SaviorComplex
 


Okay SaviorComplex, I followed your link and read the article. But I’m not sure that I’m convinced.

Do you really think this:


looks like this?


Because out of the ‘7 sisters’, the brightest five form a very clear ‘tiny little dipper’. I’m thinking that (having seen the Pleiades hundreds of times) anyone attempting to draw them or represent them in sculpture would at the very least make the brightest five points the most prominent.

In the cylinder seal the brightest point is clearly in the middle.
In the picture of the Pleiades there is no bright center point, and a different apparent shape.

I’m sorry, but that explanation on the page you linked just doesn't have me convinced. Also, the seal not only appears to show 9 planets, but 11 (and I’ve heard it claimed that there is a 12th to the right, away from the main cluster).

Additionally, it’s not just Sitchin that describes Sumerian mythology. From what I've read on the subject, these people believe that gods came down from the sky and interacted with them.

I don’t claim to have all of the answers, but I’m just not convinced on this one. Also, I’ve never read Sitchins work, and I’m not really interested in his theories after all the crap I’ve heard talked about him. I’m just saying I find it weird.

What are your thoughts on this SaviorComplex? If these are mysteries you’ve already solved, perhaps you could point me in the right direction?

-WFA



posted on Apr, 16 2008 @ 11:05 PM
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Originally posted by Badge01
1. How likely is it that a sophisticated 'craft' able to traverse inter-galactic space would have a simple star map up on the wall?


That's a good question. You might be right.
However, there is another possibility. Stars are something that both Humans and a potential Alien species have a common knowledge of. Finding common ground is always important in an attempt at communication.

Additionally, I think that even an amazing depiction of a Star Map (perhaps it was 3-Dimensional, contained depth) could be understood by Betty for what it was.

Also, I find it highly likely that any species journeying out into space would have a decent map of some sort with them, that tracked their position proximate to their homeworld at all times. That's definitely something I would want in my spaceship, right there in clear and reassuring view on my wall, the road home spelled out clearly.

Now, l must restate Badge01, I think your question might well be completely correct, but I also think there are other rational explanations for this question.


Originally posted by Badge01
2. How likely is it that such a map would be "readable" by human vision, or able to be interpreted by human intellect? As far as I recall, she didn't describe any symbols or alien writing.


Well, like above, I'm not sure how likely it is. But it makes sense. In fact, there needn't be symbols at all in a sophisticated enough computer program, unless you need them or want them to appear (being the computer's controller). This is exampled in Human culture also, by the icons we use on our desktops. We know what the button means, so we don't actually need the little label to tell us that the blue 'e' means 'internet explorer 7.0' etc.

As for being interpreted by human vision, that's a really good question. In thinking a lot about possible EBE biology, I've always assumed that Humans developed our 'sight' range in the 'visible spectrum' because that's the area that you can 'see' the most throughout the electromagnetic spectrum. It would follow that any species wanting to 'see' the most things happening would also develop a 'sight range' similar to our own visible spectrum.

But to be honest, that part is really unanswerable, and you're totally right that a species might see in UV, or even in SOUND!



Originally posted by Badge01
3. How likely is it that Betty would be able to recall such a map accurately, even under 'hypnosis'?


I have no idea. But I've had experiences that are burned into my memory, and not just UFO sightings. Plain everyday things, like walking into a room at the wrong time and hearing someone talking about you (second grade, I remember every detail, no kidding) or the first time I got into a car accident (I can still read the number of the bus that hit my car, in the vision in my mind, the memory of the event, I can read the number).

At any rate, I really have no idea how accurate it would be under hypnosis.


Originally posted by Badge01
4. How likely is it that nearly -any- configuration of stars would be matchable to a specific area?


That's a really good point. I wonder too. Maybe I'll try it a few times if I get a chance later and see how easy/hard it is to get a match-up.


Originally posted by Badge01
5. How more likely is it that a human-readable map would be created by humans than by aliens (I.e. a military psy-op)?


Also a good point, but not necessarily a discrediting factor for the Hill Case.


Originally posted by Badge01
I do think the star map is reasonably strong evidence, but there is significant room for doubt, significant opportunity for alternate explanations.


I think that's true across the board, with any argument. But honestly I really want to point out here that at some point the standard for what is proof must be set, and the bar cannot continually be pushed back. This woman claims that Aliens came and showed her a 'Star Map'. Then she proved it, but suddenly that proof (knowledge of a star system we didn't have at the time, as a race, in the public forum) has somehow become 'not enough to go on'?

I'm just really generally confused by this argument. Perhaps I'm just not understanding the subtleties of this case. Perhap I don't know enough about the details, etc. But there seems to be some 'there' there, behind this story, if you take my meaning.

Am I wrong?

-WFA



posted on Apr, 17 2008 @ 03:33 AM
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Originally posted by SaviorComplex

Actually, Sirius B is a white dwarf, and has been known to astronomers since the mid 19th century.


No doubt your right - it's been more than 10 years since I read about it. The brains a bit fuzzy atm



posted on Apr, 17 2008 @ 03:52 AM
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Originally posted by WitnessFromAfar


The Drake Equation is just that, an equation. But one thing it does for certain is take the 'that's impossible' argument (as it pertains to life on other worlds) and flushes that argument right down the toilet. The fact is that it 'IS possible', and even likely.

Until we narrow down some of the variables involved, that's all I feel the Equation can tell us.

-WFA


I think the greatest argument for life being possible in the universe is us......so anyone arguing that it is impossible, is really wasting their time(IMHO), regardless of us not having discovered it elsewhere.....we are the evidence of its possibility. I think the problem with creating equations on probablilty of life in other parts of the universe is that in can be skewed(both positively and negatively) by what we think are the necessary componants that make life possible. I guess the best use for these equations is it gives us a starting point for searching, by using our own pre-requsites for life and looking for those in other parts of the vast universe.




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