Iran proposes missile shield against U.S., Israel

I don't get it, why are we still fighting for Israel? Just because they're our ticket to the middle east doesn't mean we have to provide help for them. I believe we should just leave till it gets worst, like in Vietnam. But then again the oil situation doesn't clear up!

I have a feeling one nation is about to get it soon and hope it's not us...

reply to post by Throbber


Your right there are other ways to prevent war, especially without resorting to violence.

If we woke up tommorow and Iran announced it would no longer support Shiite Revolutionaries and Terror, that it would allow the UN to inspect and supervise its nuclear program showing it was for electricity generation only, and announce it would begin to help bring peace rather than war to the Middle East. Well that would end the whole need for a massive bombing campaign.

reply to post by LLoyd45


I dont think the world will just sit back and watch. Some will participate, some will support and assist, some will protest and riot, and others will simply look the other way.

No one's going to bomb Iran back to the stone age. I highly doubt any infrastructure would be bombed and civilian areas would be avoided. Since there will be no invasion, there will be no oil acquired.

Again Russia and China are not going to risk WW3 over Iran. They are simply not that close. Russia would back Serbia against NATO way before Iran. China is more interested in Taiwan than facing off with the US in the Middle East. Lastly neither countries have the ability to mass project forces, they simply do not have the logistics network the US has.

Reply to MikeboydUS

Iran only needs to destroy the oil infrasturcture on the other side of the gulf, and the war will not last much more than a few days. It is not very difficult to do. There will be a million plus size crowd that would probably flood the streets of DC and burn the whitehouse to the ground when people realize the mistake attacking Iran was. Noone is going to be able to have gas, tens of millions will not be able to get to work after only a few days.

Nearly the entire Western economy would stagnate overnight.

Imagine you not being able to logon to ATS to brag about how we are destroying Iran because there was no way for the coal to be delivered to the nearest power plant, or the power generated by any other means now has to be re-routed to only the highest priority regions of the country (coastal port communities, hospitals, financial instituions, military command and control facilities, government installations). Your home will not be important enough to the needs of the country at that time to utilize the little bit of energy we will have for at minimum some months to come.

I know at least Brazil, and Iceland will be pretty safe, in fact much of South America and Northern Europe probably will be ok. I mean after a dumbass move like that, what do you think is going to convince our South American and Asian oil suppliers to give us more? They are goign to focus on supplying their regions now that a significant portion of oil production and distribution has been crippled.

Russia will be supplying Central Asia and Europe before any of it goes to the US. Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil will be supporting their continent first, and maybe a few barrels a day could be spared to allocate throughout the US.

think about the true consequences of what you say. It is not just a game of "Yea my army has the super duper kablamo guns and the invisible forcefields around anythign and everything connected to us, we can destroy anyone and not suffer consequences!!"

Of course you would be employed by the industry that will be allocated energy at that time, so I am sure you could care less about the consequences.

reply to post by DYepes


You do have a good point. They could shut off their oil and /or destroy their refineries and oil infrastructure. It could cause oil to shoot up over $150/barrel.

I simply don't see millions of Americans flooding the capitol though. I could see riots across Iran but much worse than the recent fuel rationing riots in Iran. Iran would be cutting their own throats by stopping the flow of oil. It would bring revolution to their country.

We could handle up to around $155/barrel if I remember correctly and at that point, the $155 mark, Bio Fuels become profitable. Now if you were Russia and Brazil, that would put you in a position to make a whole lot of money. I guarantee Russia is waiting on this to profit from the higher oil sales.

Considering we get most of our Oil from Canada, we would still get most of it from there after this. It might even persuade people to build refineries in Wyoming and Utah for oil shale and tar sand, we have the largest reserves of it on the Earth. Canada having the second largest.

So there will be consequences, but there will be worse ones if the Middle East erupts down road with nuclear weapons on all sides, especially the irresponsible sides.

So we have a one week bombing campaign plus oil spike and recession or a Regional war with nukes flying and oil fields being turned into radioactive fields of glass. I think I'll go with the first choice.




[edit on 7/4/08 by MikeboydUS]

Petroleum (2006)
Gallons of Oil per Barrel 42
U.S. Crude Oil Production 5,102,000 barrels/day

U.S. Crude Oil Imports 10,118,000 barrels/day

Top U.S. Crude Oil Supplier Canada - 1,802,000 barrels/day
Top U.S. Petroleum Supplier Canada - 2,353,000 barrels/day
U.S. Petroleum Consumption 20,687,000 barrels/day

Dependence on Net Petroleum Imports 59.9%

Source

That makes Canada our largest Petroleum supplier at 10%, but that leaves 49% of imports to go. Break it down shall we?

Total Imports of Petroleum (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country Jan-08 Dec-07 YTD 2008 Jan-07 YTD 2007

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CANADA 2,586 2,360 2,586 2,470 2,470
S. ARABIA 1,503 1,686 1,503 1,563 1,563
VENEZUELA 1,290 1,387 1,290 1,195 1,195
MEXICO 1,307 1,322 1,307 1,566 1,566
NIGERIA 1,191 1,271 1,191 1,136 1,136
ALGERIA 636 600 636 778 778
ANGOLA 578 439 578 574 574
VIRGIN ISLANDS 380 387 380 425 425
IRAQ 543 378 543 531 531
RUSSIA 392 306 392 347 347
UK 213 238 213 194 194
ECUADOR 260 201 260 272 272
BRAZIL 225 178 225 250 250
KUWAIT 239 158 239 172 172
NETHERLANDS 92 157 92 102 102

Source

The bolded countries are those we will not be able to recieve oil from as a result of the destruction of their industries, because of Iranian desperation to halt the destruction of its country.

The remaining countries which are underlined, represent suppliers that will be either unable to supply, or supply insignificantly as a result of the increased pressurre to supply their local regions, due to the interruption of the largest supply line on Earth. If you know enough about people, which I know you do, most will help out their starving neighbors, before they help the instigators of the current global crisis on the other side of the globe.

This would pretty much limit the US to recieve most of their oil from Mexico and Canada. That is quite a scary scenario.

that is where you will see the diversion of energy suppy going to the most urgent regions. I dont see the Southwest faring very well at all, and only the agricultural communities recieving anything in the midwest.

I mean look, I am not trying to stir conflict here, but the numbers do not lie.

Entire industires will not pop-up overnight. Brazil can not just all of a sudden become the primary supplier of bio-fuels to the US for most of its needs in a year, let alone a few months. The creation of that industry here in the states will require the very petroleum that we would inevitably be cut-off from.

Russia WILL be supplying Europe and Central Asia before a drop hits our land. even with the potential profits from US, they have the infrastructure in place to supply their neighbors, and will probably only have enough to do so.


Just forget about war with Iran. It is not going to happen. Not even in the worst dreams. they are in a position to fatally damage an entire global industry if it means their civilizations survival. Our leaders know this, this is why they are our leaders, and will not be the ones responsible for making it happen.

reply to post by MikeboydUS


That the world operates in such a manner seems to good to be true.

Perhaps the iranian echelons of power are simply paranoid about whether or not such an action would be seen as "appeasing" the imperialist west.

It's an interesting situation to be in - either they do what we tell them, and the muslims radicals stop respecting them so much, or we bomb the sh't out of them, inciting muslim radicals the world over to take up arms and suicide bomb the sh't out of isreal.

In a sense, for the west to attack iran is the stupidest idea yet.

A global oil shortage sure would suck. Especially here in the states, where it would hammer our economy, hamper our way of life, and indirectly lead to much pain and suffering.

But here's the kicker.

We kind of have it coming. War or not, this is what we get for putting all our faith in a non-renewable resource that mostly comes from countries that hate our stinking guts.

------

Anyways, after all the death and dismay took its toll, alternative energy research would finally become mainstream. If oil can't supply the country's energy needs then something else will.

There have been leaps and bounds in the alternatives to oil in the last couple of years. I'm talking about alternatives to gasoline, to natural gas, to electricity generation, the works. The answers are here, now. The reason you don't see it on the market is because money isn't going into it - it doesn't need to yet, because keeping the system we have still stands as an alternative to change.

Yes, an attack on Iran would be damaging to our economy and energy production. But only in the short term. 10 years afterwards, we'd see a more energy independent United States that would lead the world in alternative energy technology and an Iran that would be militarily neutered.

I dont think you seem to understand exactly how devastating this horrible scenario, which btw is not going to happen in anyones lifetime, would be.

There will not be any kind of investing. Most every overseas american military installation would be evacuated, because the resources and wealth to protect them for more than a few days will have dissapeared. All the money we have will have to go just to make sure people will have enough to eat and minimize the spread of disease.

The American society has been bred for the past 20 years or so to be completely dependant on ANYONE else to serve the needs of the individual. the financial industry will go bankrupt overnight, as everyone will have pulled as much cash out of their accounts as possible (a futile event because the paper will be worthless). There will not be going to work for 8 hours a day to support your family for millions of people in America after this endgame happens.

If you want to eat, you either ration and wait for government rations, or you go out and hunt for your pray. Besides the fact that many people will just "not have the heart to do such a thing " those who do will be competeing with millions of others to survive.

I would like anyone here to wager just how cooperative starving, poor, disillusioned stranngers are going to cooperate and trust one another with rapidly dwindling resources. Yes people in third world countries live like this everyday, but they were born and are adapted to live that way. Many American citizens expect to live in luxuary and as royalty, the mere shock of the dissapearance of this basic wealth will drive mentally unstable and multi-drugged citizens to kill themselves just at the thought of living like the third worlders do.

Many also, having not be trained or exposed to such calamity, having only the past lifetime of hollywood media exposure to fall back on, and what little bit of pharmaceutical, illicit, and other legal drugs to fall back on, will just go crazy and treat anyone they see as an enemy to their survival. Even their own family.

It sounds apocalyptic and far-fetched, but this is one of those few strategic mistakes that are made in history that can effortlessly dissolve an empire.

It is that very fact that gaurantees there will not be an attack on Iran. What you see and are riled up to act is merely a show. Iran is not planning on attacking anyone. They have plenty of great business going for them, and the only thing on their mind is making sure their borders are secure from the occupiers threatening to destroy them on every side! (Iraq, Afghanistan, NATO ally Turkey[but not member], unstable, western friendly Pakistan).

Destroying the oil infrastructure on the other side of the gulf is their equivellant of dropping several nuclear weapons on our country. the ramifications are probably greater though. That is their MAAD. Except the world can actually show pity and empathy if they take that route, as it does not involved turning several cities and millions of people into ashes in order to save your civilization from destruction.

Brilliant Dyepes.
That was a great read, and it sounds quite realistic.
Id like to think Canada could up the ante though,

while I do think it'll be a quick snap, I dont think it will occur overnight.

Yes no doubt Canada could actually emerge more powerful in this Hemisphere, but only if they choose that route. It would require diverting resources away from Helping your southern neighbors though, and I would like to believe we have grown close enough for yall not to take advantage of growing your leverage over US and reduce your humanitarian aid in doing so. (its only going to be one or the other,)

Oh. I get it now. You're one of those "the end is near" folks who is so bored with everyday life that they see a bad situation and immediately start predicting that it'll lead to the breakdown of society, simply because you like to tell scary stories.

Your camp made the same arguments about an Iraq invasion. The exact same arguments. What happened? Prices went up. Okay, that sucks, I'll give you that. But on the other hand, I'm on a very low income and I'm still making ends meet. In fact last month I paid off my car and blew about 800 bucks on a gun and a Playstation Portable... yeah... the nation sure did crumble due to the oil shortage.

You see, the problem is you doom and gloom people have spit this whole oil thing out before and nothing happened. Kinda leads me to believe that maybe there's more to the equation than you think.

Oh, this is interesting. While every other page on the Internet will tell you that Iran is the worlds fourth largest exporter of oil, this little tidbit isn't quite so commonly stated:

Revenues from oil exports - projected to reach at least $45bn dollars in the year to March 2007, according to reports in the Iranian press - fund about 50% of Iran's annual budget.

Iran supplies about 5% of the world's oil supply. In February 2006 an oil ministry official put crude production at 3.5-4m bpd, a figure which could be increased by 1m bpd "although it calls for major investments." Source

That, sir, is problematic on the level of "time to start investing in alternative energy," not on the level of "OH CRAP SOCIETY WOULD END FOREVER!!!"

Note that 50% of their budget comes from oil exporting. Soooo... you're suggesting Iran would give up literally half of its economy to cut the world out of 5% of its oil? I'm not seeing it.

[edit on 8-4-2008 by mattifikation]

reply to post by MikeboydUS
We can speculate on who has the best soldiers, weapons, planes, logistics, etc. for days, but in the final analysis, it all amounts to a lot of guesswork. I'm sure neither side has revealed their full capabilities or weaknesses for all to see.

I just hope the US doesn't allow itself to be drawn into a senseless conflict because of it's loyalty to Israel. We need to distance ourself from them as quickly as we can, withdraw our financial and military support, and let them fight their own battles. Without the US backing their plays, I think peace might then become an option for them.

They're a small, insignificant country, surrounded by enemies, that needs to practice humility rather than hubris.

Why should American lives and taxpayers dollars be used to defend them? What have they done for us lately, or at all for that matter? Give me just one good reason why a single American life should be lost fighting their battles?

reply to post by DYepes


a war with Iran would increase price on Petrol - good news, people will be stressed and will use their skills to find better ways of getting energy without petrol imports.

reply to post by LLoyd45


I do not find it logical that 180 000 000 muslims are so much in trouble with a little slice of land called Israel. It is a bit like the protest with the Danish cartoons ! I do not think that muslims will ever be peacefull , unless their religion is changed / altered. Christianity has the reformation , I wonder when reformation of Islam will come.. this will be the only source of peace on Earth!

[edit on 8-4-2008 by sty]

Originally posted by sty
reply to post by LLoyd45

 

I do not find it logical that 180 000 000 muslims are so much in trouble with a little slice of land called Israel. It is a bit like the protest with the Danish cartoons ! I do not think that muslims will ever be peacefull , unless their religion is changed / altered. Christianity has the reformation , I wonder when reformation of Islam will come.. this will be the only source of peace on Earth!

I don't think the Muslim are the problem. It's Israel with their 200+ undeclared nuclear warheads, and their constant posturing like a banty rooster. Disarm them, de-fund them, and they'll be forced to accept peaceful options.

It doesn't appear that the reform is working too well considering the state of the World. Humans are inherently violent and bent on self-destruction.

[edit on 4/8/08 by LLoyd45]

mattifikation, maybe you just dont like reading, but it is not the loss of Iranian oil that will cripple us. It is the destruction of the entire Gulf coast oil infrastructure, IE Saudi arabia, kuwait, bahrain, UAE, etc. The facilities for processing and shipping and transportation of that oil is on the coastline mostly. It is all within reach of Iranian missles, and they got thousands to spare.

also for your information, noone predicted doom and gloom about Iraq. Want to know why? Because most everyone already knew Iraq's military capability was destroyed after the first incursion. Not to mention that NATO/US forces made consistent airstrikes on strategic targets in Iraq from the end of the first war, even up to the beginning of the second.

Saddaam never had the power again to retaliate against the oil infrastructure south of him. Not to mention there was not that much oil coming out of Iraq at that time either. It is not the supply of the enemy that we can ill afford to lose, it is the supply of our friendly in the region.

The Persian Gulf produced about 28 percent of the world’s oil supply and exported over 18 million bbl/d in 2006

Source

Over a fourth of the worlds oil supplies come from this region, so what do you think happens when oil stops coming from there? Well the remaining producers have to think strategically about supplying themselves and their neighbors first. We just happen to be conviniently farthest from that part of the world, so you know.

This is where strategic energy rationing comes into play as i stated earlier. it is not just liek shutting off and then starting again. If it is in ruins it will have to be completely rebuilt.

The real point is that this is why an attack on Iran wont happen. You see by the time we have invested in our alternative energies and our infrastructure has been made mostly independnt from foreign oil, years and years will have passed wiith everyone seeing that Iran will have attacked noone.

so when it is all said and done, fifteen - thirty years from now when your all "Ok Iran, we're ready to fight" noone is going to be swallowing your jargon and rhetoric to fight.

I dont expect anyone to attack iran this year, in five years, or in fifteen. If you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you...

Originally posted by DYepes
Over a fourth of the worlds oil supplies come from this region, so what do you think happens when oil stops coming from there? Well the remaining producers have to think strategically about supplying themselves and their neighbors first. We just happen to be conviniently farthest from that part of the world, so you know.

I'm with you as far as not wanting to have to attack Iran, but for the sake of the innocent lives that will be lost. I hope you don't seriously believe Iran has the ability to destroy all the oil in that region. Do you have any idea of our military's true capability? We have MANY defensive measures and options to protect the oil of countries outside of Iran. If they want to intentionally destroy their main source of income, and the ONLY reason Russia or China even give them the time of day, for the sake of not bowing to international pressure for FULL transparency of their nuke program, that's on them. But as another poster here stated, the SAME thing was said about Iraq, and while the occupation of Iraq was a huge mistake, the actual military conflict was over very quickly, and very decisively. Iran does NOT have the ability to end civilization, lol. If the us military were to believe you, they would probably annihilate the Iranian military that much quicker so that by the time they decided to launch some attack on all the other oil producing countries in the region, it would be too late. Luckily, that won't be the case, and if anything were to happen in the future, it would be limited airstrikes to set back their nuke program, no occupation would be needed.

reply to post by mattifikation


We still won't or can't make some of the Tesla weapons.

They fuddle around with the UFO but never allow anyone to see
anything else.

Well they are a bit confused.