|
reply posted on 28-4-2008 @ 06:20 PM by Justin Oldham
|
I'm not an economist, but I think the original poster said it all.
"Think Weimar Republic. The Fed can no longer stop inflation because the banks can't secure new money with debt. People aren't buying debt
anymore. Ergo, hyperinflation is the natural consequence."
The Fed's official balance sheet has gone negative. It's not being reported on because nobody wants to see a run on the banks. It was a pain the
butt, but I've already moved my own cash to safer and more accessible venues.
|
copyright & usage
|
 |
reply posted on 6-5-2008 @ 08:08 AM by xpert11
|
Some more of my thoughts .
A lot of the troubles can be traced back to the end of the 90s dot com bubble bursting. After people lost there high paying jobs and instead took
employment at places like Walmart they either continued or started to live off credit . I have encountered two schools of as to why many people are
struggling to cope with increased living costs . The first is that people can no longer afford to pay the bills because they have been living off
credit alone . The 2nd school of thought states that people are struggling because incomes haven't kept pace with rising living costs .
In a way they are both right . The truth of the matter is that those who haven't been living off credit are much better able to deal with rising
living costs . Arguable someone who makes less then a person on a higher pay packet who hasn't been living above there means is in a better position
to deal with rising living costs then the higher income earner .
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 7-5-2008 @ 01:48 AM by Justin Oldham
|
It's worth noting tha the Fed recently cut its prime lending rate to just 2.0% It's my opinion that its just too darned late for a move of that
kind. "Gravity" has taken over.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 19-5-2008 @ 03:37 PM by Justin Oldham
|
The price of oil is going to reach and excede $130 per barrel by the end of next week. Last week, we learned that the Federal government would stop
putting crude oil in the Strategic Petrolium Reserve.
In many respects, this action by the Federal government demonstrates that the politicians and bureaucrats in Washington are aware of the fact that
their actions are meaningless at this point. It's only a matter of time until we read about the move to take crude oil out of the SPR.
I bring this to your attention because we all need to be ready to ride this thing out. Most of what the Fed does, from here on in, will be symbolic.
Nothing short of reform and refinance will do. Unfortunately, they won't be doing any of that until we hit bottom.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
AboveTopSecret.com is advertising supported.
|
reply posted on 19-5-2008 @ 07:52 PM by sweatmonicaIdo
|
Originally posted by xpert11
Some more of my thoughts .
A lot of the troubles can be traced back to the end of the 90s dot com bubble bursting. After people lost there high paying jobs and instead took
employment at places like Walmart they either continued or started to live off credit . I have encountered two schools of as to why many people are
struggling to cope with increased living costs . The first is that people can no longer afford to pay the bills because they have been living off
credit alone . The 2nd school of thought states that people are struggling because incomes haven't kept pace with rising living costs .
In a way they are both right . The truth of the matter is that those who haven't been living off credit are much better able to deal with rising
living costs . Arguable someone who makes less then a person on a higher pay packet who hasn't been living above there means is in a better position
to deal with rising living costs then the higher income earner .
That is a very correct assessment. If you read many of the books written by Kevin J. Phillips, he essentially asserts that much of America's economic
problems is due to the complete misuse of credit, or the need to live off credit.
I would further argue that its not just poor and working class people who are the problem. Its the middle class as well. We have a middle class who
have no concept of what it means to be frugal and save. They spend all that money on cigarettes, alcohol, eating out, that big-screen TV, big-ticket
concerts and sporting events, Guitar Hero, Rock Band, and Xbox Live. These things are not cheap. period. Yet these people just spend and spend on
these items, much of it coming off credit or money they don't have. This idea of now now now is a major excess of capitalism.
This will have major implications during a time of war.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 19-5-2008 @ 09:02 PM by xpert11
|
reply to post by sweatmonicaIdo
You will get no argument here . Although I don't think I have mentioned it on the boards I have often said that a lot of people can no longer tell
the difference between a want and a need . You can sort of see this when people talk about the rising costs of every day grocery's . People seem to
think they need to buy potato chips and other such items . Basic economics drives our consummation some what it is often cheaper to replace an item
then to fix it.
My recently decreased granddad use to save the string from packages . IMO while we wont see a return to darning socks it will take a depression to
teach people not live above there means . You cant regulate common sense and good decision making.
[edit on 19-5-2008 by xpert11]
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 19-5-2008 @ 10:02 PM by sweatmonicaIdo
|
One thing that will emerge from my World War III scenario is that people will finally learn the value of saving and making scarifices. They will
finally understand why its not "hippie-talk" to be hesitant about buying that SUV or H3. They will also realize that in times of crisis, its not
enough to just buy a lot of stuff.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 19-5-2008 @ 11:21 PM by Justin Oldham
|
I agree that hard times will re-introduce many people to the wisdom of their grand parents. Unfortunately, I can also see that politicians will be
unable to resist the temptation to grow the size of government...again.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 19-5-2008 @ 11:53 PM by sweatmonicaIdo
|
Originally posted by Justin Oldham
I agree that hard times will re-introduce many people to the wisdom of their grand parents. Unfortunately, I can also see that politicians will be
unable to resist the temptation to grow the size of government...again.
I agree, from a certain point of view. I subscribe to the Power Elite thesis, so to me, the expansion of the size of the federal government
originates, in part, from a government playing too much of a role in dictating people's lives and promoting false ideas such as the American Dream.
Anytime the state goes as far as dictating every solitary person's lives, you create a rush for the gold, and those who are more powerful tend to
reach the top, thus creating this Power Elite structure.
I feel like if people adopted sort of a "green" policy of participatory democracy and individual frugality and conservation, the size of the federal
government would need not be expanded.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 21-5-2008 @ 12:32 AM by Justin Oldham
|
How does the next President take a stab at that? Sounds to me like a generational shift would be necessary. Don't know what Don will have to say
about that.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
AboveTopSecret.com is advertising supported.
|
reply posted on 24-5-2008 @ 11:48 PM by sweatmonicaIdo
|
Originally posted by Justin Oldham
How does the next President take a stab at that? Sounds to me like a generational shift would be necessary. Don't know what Don will have to say
about that.
Simple. We need far less Ronald Reagans. We need someone who is not afraid to tell the American people that this is on them. As a
libertarian/paleoconservative, I take a very wary stance against the government. But I believe even more in something called personal responsibility.
We also cannot sit here and pretend the government is the only force at work. In a way, we the people have created this massive centralized
bureaucracy that sits in Washington, D.C.
I am a huge fan of Lou Dobbs, but I will also say he is too much of a middle-class apologist. We need people to understand that if they purchase
Guitar Hero and their credit card debt goes up, its not the government's problem - its theirs.
[edit on 24-5-2008 by sweatmonicaIdo]
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 26-5-2008 @ 02:24 PM by Justin Oldham
|
It's going to take a generational shift before thrift becomes "cool." the young peole who drive today's spending binge do so becuase they don't
know any better. they ahve no idea that their actions have concequences.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 27-5-2008 @ 12:09 PM by sweatmonicaIdo
|
Originally posted by Justin Oldham
It's going to take a generational shift before thrift becomes "cool." the young peole who drive today's spending binge do so becuase they don't
know any better. they ahve no idea that their actions have concequences.
Its the unfortunate by-product of any "good time." The economic boom of the 1990s, coupled with the poor rhetoric of the 1980s, created an
environment where people truly believed they and their country could do absolutely no wrong.
If you read some of the great literature that covers the Dot-Com Boom, you'll see that most of those people had very little idea of what they were
doing. They weren't really producing anything, be it in terms of a good or a service. These were really all companies in name only.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 1-6-2008 @ 04:52 PM by Justin Oldham
|
Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
If you read some of the great literature that covers the Dot-Com Boom, you'll see that most of those people had very little idea of what they were
doing. They weren't really producing anything, be it in terms of a good or a service. These were really all companies in name only.
A similar cse can be made regarding the price of oil today. Much ofwhat drives hte prive of oil per barrel exhists only on paper, and it would be
fiar to say that a lot of the speculators don't really know what they are doing.
At a minimum, it means we're in for something that'll be just as bad as the dot-com bubble...if not worse. Those who have some real idea of what is
actually happening will have their assets well protected long before the rest of us begin to feel the pain of any crash.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 18-6-2008 @ 08:03 PM by LostNemesis
|
Justin,
This is one of the most-flagged threads of the day: www.abovetopsecret.com...&flagit=364364
Does this basically cover what you've been seeing coming? Or is this MUCH too soon to be seeing what they suggest in this thread?
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 18-6-2008 @ 08:50 PM by Justin Oldham
|
I can appreciate hthinking that went in to that thread you linked, but I don't see the 'crash' coming that soon. for the most part, I'm
suggesting that our long slow meltdown began last year. We've got two years of hard recession ahead of us before the actual Depression.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
AboveTopSecret.com is advertising supported.
|
reply posted on 18-6-2008 @ 09:56 PM by LostNemesis
|
Originally posted by Justin Oldham
I can appreciate hthinking that went in to that thread you linked, but I don't see the 'crash' coming that soon. for the most part, I'm
suggesting that our long slow meltdown began last year. We've got two years of hard recession ahead of us before the actual Depression.
Thanks so much for your input. I agree with everyone stating that it's a good time to be living, to get to witness the historical changes ahead of
us.
Your perspective is much more comforting to me, actually.
Bit more time to prepare for what's ahead, I figure. Still kind of amusing to see those is power, scrambling around the issue.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 19-6-2008 @ 02:02 AM by xpert11
|
As Justin as noted more people are accepting that there are some tough times ahead . I was speaking with my Mum today and she told me that our family
lawyer said that the signs pointed to the banks going under just like during the Great Depression . It is also very telling that the Reserve Bank
doesn't any of the major banks in New Zealand .
While the Reserve Bank monitors registered banks’ compliance with banking supervision policies, neither it nor the Government guarantees that a
registered bank will not get into difficulty or fail.
Source
I am going to have a think while I am not convinced that we will face a full blown economic melt down it would still pay for me to have some cash
stored somewhere for insurance purposes . The problem is due to the risk of theft and damage it is very risky to store money anywhere but in a bank .
:Sighs :
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 19-6-2008 @ 02:13 AM by Equinox99
|
reply to post by Justin Oldham
Your right. Isn't that one of the same leverages that Hitler used to manipulate his way to the top? I think so.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
reply posted on 19-6-2008 @ 03:34 AM by Justin Oldham
|
I've made the point in this CM forum several times that our leaders are in fact going to use the hard times ahead to 'leverage' more power. My
predictions are easily two years old now. And, for the record, you are right. Hitler did use the hard times his people faced as a means to scare
them in to doing what he wanted.
|
copyright & usage
|
|
