I'm not an economist, but I think the original poster said it all.

"Think Weimar Republic. The Fed can no longer stop inflation because the banks can't secure new money with debt. People aren't buying debt anymore. Ergo, hyperinflation is the natural consequence."

The Fed's official balance sheet has gone negative. It's not being reported on because nobody wants to see a run on the banks. It was a pain the butt, but I've already moved my own cash to safer and more accessible venues.

Some more of my thoughts .

A lot of the troubles can be traced back to the end of the 90s dot com bubble bursting. After people lost there high paying jobs and instead took employment at places like Walmart they either continued or started to live off credit . I have encountered two schools of as to why many people are struggling to cope with increased living costs . The first is that people can no longer afford to pay the bills because they have been living off credit alone . The 2nd school of thought states that people are struggling because incomes haven't kept pace with rising living costs .

In a way they are both right . The truth of the matter is that those who haven't been living off credit are much better able to deal with rising living costs . Arguable someone who makes less then a person on a higher pay packet who hasn't been living above there means is in a better position to deal with rising living costs then the higher income earner .

It's worth noting tha the Fed recently cut its prime lending rate to just 2.0% It's my opinion that its just too darned late for a move of that kind. "Gravity" has taken over.

The price of oil is going to reach and excede $130 per barrel by the end of next week. Last week, we learned that the Federal government would stop putting crude oil in the Strategic Petrolium Reserve.

In many respects, this action by the Federal government demonstrates that the politicians and bureaucrats in Washington are aware of the fact that their actions are meaningless at this point. It's only a matter of time until we read about the move to take crude oil out of the SPR.

I bring this to your attention because we all need to be ready to ride this thing out. Most of what the Fed does, from here on in, will be symbolic. Nothing short of reform and refinance will do. Unfortunately, they won't be doing any of that until we hit bottom.

Originally posted by xpert11
Some more of my thoughts .

A lot of the troubles can be traced back to the end of the 90s dot com bubble bursting. After people lost there high paying jobs and instead took employment at places like Walmart they either continued or started to live off credit . I have encountered two schools of as to why many people are struggling to cope with increased living costs . The first is that people can no longer afford to pay the bills because they have been living off credit alone . The 2nd school of thought states that people are struggling because incomes haven't kept pace with rising living costs .

In a way they are both right . The truth of the matter is that those who haven't been living off credit are much better able to deal with rising living costs . Arguable someone who makes less then a person on a higher pay packet who hasn't been living above there means is in a better position to deal with rising living costs then the higher income earner .

That is a very correct assessment. If you read many of the books written by Kevin J. Phillips, he essentially asserts that much of America's economic problems is due to the complete misuse of credit, or the need to live off credit.

I would further argue that its not just poor and working class people who are the problem. Its the middle class as well. We have a middle class who have no concept of what it means to be frugal and save. They spend all that money on cigarettes, alcohol, eating out, that big-screen TV, big-ticket concerts and sporting events, Guitar Hero, Rock Band, and Xbox Live. These things are not cheap. period. Yet these people just spend and spend on these items, much of it coming off credit or money they don't have. This idea of now now now is a major excess of capitalism.

This will have major implications during a time of war.

One thing that will emerge from my World War III scenario is that people will finally learn the value of saving and making scarifices. They will finally understand why its not "hippie-talk" to be hesitant about buying that SUV or H3. They will also realize that in times of crisis, its not enough to just buy a lot of stuff.

I agree that hard times will re-introduce many people to the wisdom of their grand parents. Unfortunately, I can also see that politicians will be unable to resist the temptation to grow the size of government...again.

Originally posted by Justin Oldham
I agree that hard times will re-introduce many people to the wisdom of their grand parents. Unfortunately, I can also see that politicians will be unable to resist the temptation to grow the size of government...again.

I agree, from a certain point of view. I subscribe to the Power Elite thesis, so to me, the expansion of the size of the federal government originates, in part, from a government playing too much of a role in dictating people's lives and promoting false ideas such as the American Dream. Anytime the state goes as far as dictating every solitary person's lives, you create a rush for the gold, and those who are more powerful tend to reach the top, thus creating this Power Elite structure.

I feel like if people adopted sort of a "green" policy of participatory democracy and individual frugality and conservation, the size of the federal government would need not be expanded.

How does the next President take a stab at that? Sounds to me like a generational shift would be necessary. Don't know what Don will have to say about that.

Originally posted by Justin Oldham
How does the next President take a stab at that? Sounds to me like a generational shift would be necessary. Don't know what Don will have to say about that.

Simple. We need far less Ronald Reagans. We need someone who is not afraid to tell the American people that this is on them. As a libertarian/paleoconservative, I take a very wary stance against the government. But I believe even more in something called personal responsibility. We also cannot sit here and pretend the government is the only force at work. In a way, we the people have created this massive centralized bureaucracy that sits in Washington, D.C.

I am a huge fan of Lou Dobbs, but I will also say he is too much of a middle-class apologist. We need people to understand that if they purchase Guitar Hero and their credit card debt goes up, its not the government's problem - its theirs.

[edit on 24-5-2008 by sweatmonicaIdo]

It's going to take a generational shift before thrift becomes "cool." the young peole who drive today's spending binge do so becuase they don't know any better. they ahve no idea that their actions have concequences.

Originally posted by Justin Oldham
It's going to take a generational shift before thrift becomes "cool." the young peole who drive today's spending binge do so becuase they don't know any better. they ahve no idea that their actions have concequences.

Its the unfortunate by-product of any "good time." The economic boom of the 1990s, coupled with the poor rhetoric of the 1980s, created an environment where people truly believed they and their country could do absolutely no wrong.

If you read some of the great literature that covers the Dot-Com Boom, you'll see that most of those people had very little idea of what they were doing. They weren't really producing anything, be it in terms of a good or a service. These were really all companies in name only.

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
If you read some of the great literature that covers the Dot-Com Boom, you'll see that most of those people had very little idea of what they were doing. They weren't really producing anything, be it in terms of a good or a service. These were really all companies in name only.

A similar cse can be made regarding the price of oil today. Much ofwhat drives hte prive of oil per barrel exhists only on paper, and it would be fiar to say that a lot of the speculators don't really know what they are doing.

At a minimum, it means we're in for something that'll be just as bad as the dot-com bubble...if not worse. Those who have some real idea of what is actually happening will have their assets well protected long before the rest of us begin to feel the pain of any crash.

I can appreciate hthinking that went in to that thread you linked, but I don't see the 'crash' coming that soon. for the most part, I'm suggesting that our long slow meltdown began last year. We've got two years of hard recession ahead of us before the actual Depression.

Originally posted by Justin Oldham
I can appreciate hthinking that went in to that thread you linked, but I don't see the 'crash' coming that soon. for the most part, I'm suggesting that our long slow meltdown began last year. We've got two years of hard recession ahead of us before the actual Depression.

Thanks so much for your input. I agree with everyone stating that it's a good time to be living, to get to witness the historical changes ahead of us.

Your perspective is much more comforting to me, actually.
Bit more time to prepare for what's ahead, I figure. Still kind of amusing to see those is power, scrambling around the issue.

I've made the point in this CM forum several times that our leaders are in fact going to use the hard times ahead to 'leverage' more power. My predictions are easily two years old now. And, for the record, you are right. Hitler did use the hard times his people faced as a means to scare them in to doing what he wanted.