Long live the United States and its Economy, page 3
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ATS Members have flagged this thread 5 times


reply posted on 25-3-2008 @ 05:32 AM by dawnstar
"Its been a rough time, but whether you want to believe it or not, things have just about worked through the system. "

-------------------------------------------------------
Say what?? only if the original problem that started this domino effect wasn't the "sub-prime" mortgages! most of those mortgages haven't even reset yet. the housing values haven't seen their low yet, and now, thanks for the gov't's desire to bail out only their buddies, more homeowners are gonna have problems meeting their financial obligations and find themselves in foreclosure because their bailout has made everything more expensive for them to buy! I don't think we are even halfway through this! either that or the "sub-primer" is just the lame scapegoat for us to focus our anger on. heck, I go through the ads about once a week, I don't even see where our home has lost any value, don't see foreclosure signs all over the place, ect. either we have quite a bit farther to go in this, or the sub-prime problem isn't as bad as they are making it out to be!

If you want my opinion, bush knew this was gonna hit a few years ago, that's why he thought the idea of privitising social security was such a grand idea! It would funnel what is now money in the state coffers over into wall street's financials. We didn't give him what he wanted, so now they are taking it.
I am glad a few are making out so well with the market, but, it does come at the expense of all of us! It's our taxmoney that is subsidizing the employees as the corporate world downsizes, offshores, imports their labor in the name of profit, it's our taxmoney that has to keep the government running as they lobby for more and more taxbreaks, and it's our money that is bailing the financials out of their current predicament!
I could make money running drugs across the mexican border also, or selling weapons to terrorists in third world countries, but there's seems to be some morality issues involved in these also...so I don't. don't play the stock market either......it seems to collide with my ideas of what is moral and what is fair play.


reply posted on 26-3-2008 @ 05:45 AM by dawnstar
Originally posted by traderonwallst

moral and fair play? Might be your opinion but definitely not mine. Putting my kids through college in 10 years on what I have been able to take out of the market in the last 9 months. And seeing how hard it is to get college loans now...good thing I was active.


my son went to a college to check it out....came home with a few papers for us to fill out and sign. one of them was for us to cosign a student loan for us....
I called the lady up and well, flat out told her....there would be no cosigned student loan, if he want the college bad enough, well, he will save up his money for the tuition and books and go part time.....many, many people have done this in the past! to which she replied, oh, but that's impossible.....
she wouldn't entertain the idea that he could go it without the financial aide, and well, my son agrees with me, he doesn't want the loan! so, he isn't entertaining the idea of going to college anytime soon.
when you consider just how much yack is being put out there about how important that education is.....you'd think that they'd do something to get the cost for it down to a level where at least some of the average folks can get that education without begging from the government or going deeply in debt. they are doing the opposite, inflating another bubble that will burst when it's time is up. check out the pay of the president and such of these college universities, I would say the same thing about that as I do about the stock market and upper management of these businesses that then pay their lower paid workers wages that make them eligible for food stamps! if they can't operate their business without that giant inflow of taxmoney, they have no business paying out big dividends to their shareholders or paying the top managers millions of dollars! it's like a food stamp recipient giving each of her six kids $200 in a weekly allowance, and then claiming it as an expense when applying for the food stamps!


reply posted on 26-3-2008 @ 06:40 PM by traderonwallst
reply to post by dawnstar


Seriously......not going to college is only going to hurt him in the long run. Our welfare rolls are full of people that did not go to college, not all by their choice, but I have never heard of anyone on welfare being a college graduate.

Right now...geology majors are some the highest paid graduates. There is not enough of them and with all the booming commodity markets out there right now a lot of these graduates are getting $160,000 offers.

Just some info.


reply posted on 26-3-2008 @ 07:53 PM by disgustedbyhumanity
reply to post by traderonwallst



Trader. I must say that I agree with almost everything that you say. Congrats on your good trades. My trades(actually investments) have sucked for the most part. Actually went long Crocs at 37 and 27. i think they are worth more than even their old highs. Time will tell but I'm holding. Fortunately the majority of my client investments are in equity mutual fund portfolio's. We also have had a good bit in cash in our portfolios as well. Put about half of that to work in late Jan and if we have a down day tommorow, we will be investing most of the other half. Daytrdaing doesn't work as these folks pay high tax rates and wish to avoid short term gains.

What most people here do not understand is that the dollar will absoultely get stronger. First off asset values are down pretty much across the board wiping out a bunch of money. The mortgage debacle has also made an awful lot of money vanish into thin air. We also have historically very low levels of M1 to the point where there is about 20% less liquid dollars in the economy than even a few years ago. The money supply is shrinking. A shrinking money supply is why the great depression reached the depths that it it did. M1 shrunk about 40%, US ended up with 30% deflation. There was no money for anyone to spend. Fed is ensuring that we do not have a repeat. They have plenty of room to expand the money supply without causing inflation and they are hell bent on doing so. Panicked traders are more or less responsible for the high prices of commodities rather than a weak dollar. If the dollar was really so weak why would anyone be willing to accept the current low interest rates on treasuries?

Also the fed is not giving anyone money. They are lending it to them. The fed is also able to particpate in the gains as these asset backed securities regain more of their value. They are worth much more than what the market is currently willing to pay for them. Average losses are only about 10-15% on foreclosure sales. They are pricing in 30-40%. Fed keeps the difference plus interest.

I think real estate comes back fairly quickly. I know for a fact my payment on my ARM is falling significantly and will continue falling over the next 12 months. At that point I convert to fixed at a very attractive rate. Many others are in the same situation.

I think most of the doomsdayers here are in trouble themselves and that is why they have such a dim view on the future. Do yourself one favor. If you are getting foreclosed, please make the bank come up with the original loan documents. Do not accept their affadavit. They may never be able to take your house, not ever. Stand your ground. Use what money you have to get rid of your other debt or create a nest egg so at some point you will have some bargaining power or money for a down payment if they do locate the documents. I think many will never be found. The banks will be ok, even with you getting a little bit of deserved revenge.


reply posted on 26-3-2008 @ 08:27 PM by dawnstar
Originally posted by traderonwallst
reply to post by dawnstar


but I have never heard of anyone on welfare being a college graduate.





really, because I have.....
there's four of us in the shop at the present time who are college graduates, ain't none of us working in the field we majored in...ain't none of us on welfare, but, well, we certainly ain't making the great money we thought we would when we went into college...

neither is anyone who is taking out a ton of loans to get through college probably when you consider the amount of money that they will be having to pay back...


reply posted on 26-3-2008 @ 10:38 PM by traderonwallst
Originally posted by dawnstar
Originally posted by traderonwallst
reply to post by dawnstar


but I have never heard of anyone on welfare being a college graduate.





really, because I have.....
there's four of us in the shop at the present time who are college graduates, ain't none of us working in the field we majored in...ain't none of us on welfare, but, well, we certainly ain't making the great money we thought we would when we went into college...

neither is anyone who is taking out a ton of loans to get through college probably when you consider the amount of money that they will be having to pay back...



I know tons of people who are no longer working the field that they went to college for. Most of them are working on Wall Street. Know how many doctors end up being great pharmaceutical analysts? Know how many lawyers end up being great traders? You never know what you are destined to do, and you really have no idea at the age of 18 when most colleges expect you chose.

I just don;t want people passing up such a great opportunity to learn....If not what they want to do in life, but what they don't want to. I started out in accounting, tried physical therapy and ended up with a degree in banking and finance.



reply posted on 26-3-2008 @ 10:39 PM by traderonwallst
reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity


I agree with most of your post there. Just not sure about the real estate market bouncing back as quickly as you might think. Long term charts..and I am all about cycles indicate there is further to fall to get back to the "normal" trend. I know its scary...and I bought my house in November of 2006, so it's hurting me too.


reply posted on 26-3-2008 @ 10:43 PM by cpdaman
nice balance in this discussion i would like to chime in

clue the "gloom and doom" music lol

seriously i understand people are upset that their is an overwhelming amount of negativity on this board , especially regarding financials and the economy.

I would caution those who channel this anger into calling out these people posting these story's as those who "wish the economy would wind up this way". I believe the vast majority of people posting these things, are out of good intentions to help "warn" others of the perceived seriousness of things that are going on while some others are looking to boost their ego's by possibly getting things correct. I also think these same people care about their "country" and wish the best for it. ( this is how i feel) but i just think a lot of people see our sovereignty getting undermind by a central bank that indebts us.

However with all that being said, i will give trader some credit because i think some people think that for the cancerous tentacles of the central bank to stop strangling the economy, that they will have to die off, and in fact this will certainly have a negative effect on the economy, but perhaps provide the best chance at starting over and provide a better chance of having future generations enjoy the freedoms we have (instead of the fascist business model we are getting into) and the opportunity's for more industrial development and capital investment within the country instead of relying on devaluing the dollar and shady loan practices to grow the economy.

and finally my forecast, regarding financial news and economists is very difficult, because i believe many are biased both ways, (some current bulls because they don't want to imagine a low standard of living, and some current bears who see the financial system as a cancer overtaking the entire economy and root for it to be killed off, and they are biased toward wishing it will end).

my forecast is that their is going to be a wide spread lowering of the standard of living for the majority of americans( people can still ride this out) . This will occur over a couple years (already started)

I don't really care if it is deflation or hyperinflation, i have read till i have head aches ( at least two hours a day on financials for a year and a half) and their is tremendous uncertainty and one can only speculate on the details. A side note i have been wondering if one of the many reasons the fed is devaluing the dollari is to support higher oil prices which get recycled thanks to much higher arab petro dollar recycling , they do this to keep down long term interest rates, anyway good discussion.



[edit on 26-3-2008 by cpdaman]


reply posted on 27-3-2008 @ 05:39 AM by dawnstar
reply to post by traderonwallst



that all may be true, but what happened to the concept of living within your means? ya know, it's preached on boards like these over and over again....and yet, when it comes to the one thing that at least according to the gov't talking heads, is gonna be a necessity in the future if one wants to be able to live in their means, the people at the colleges will refuse to even consider one trying to do it without begging, borrowing, or stealing to get it.
my son is willing to work and save and go only part time, we are willing to pictch in a little money in his direction to do it....we don't want government money, we don't want to sign our lives away! and this idea is so far out in left field, the people at the colleges won't even discuss it with ya?
my son will be checking out other colleges, trade schools, and the like till he finds one that will!
But, I am telling you right now, our economy has gotten way too dependant on the money that is flowing through it by people begging, borrowing, and resorting to criminal activities in their feeble attempt to retain their standard of living. we'd be much better off to address the problems instead of just accepting as the new norm and going on our marry way, and it would be alot cheaper for all of us in the future.
by the way, the person in this family who is making the most money....and is making more money than alot of people out there in the work force, is a high school dropout with no more than a GED. The occupation he is in has been kind of deemed as one of those that people have the attitude that "even a monkey can do it", so the wages have been depressed. and, of course, since the wages haven't been that great (compared to the $100,000 so many are expecting when they get out of college), people haven't been going into the field. so, there's a now a shortage. my son would probably make out better if he took the job in the paper that is offering training in that field....AND HE'D BE PAID FOR DOING IT!
but, well, if someone doesn't take that job and get trained, we might actually have to find out if a monkey can do the work since there won't be enough people trained to fill the need. I imagine those that are trained will have a great labor market to play in...more need than their are qualified applicants. can you say this about all those coming out of college with their bachelors of business degrees? I don't think you can. all they are doing by pressing the kids into going into college is depressing the value of that degree when they get out. the degrees will be a dime a dozen, the machinists, the plumbers, the electricians, ect.....they will be the new desired commodity.


reply posted on 1-4-2008 @ 08:05 PM by disgustedbyhumanity
reply to post by traderonwallst



Nice day today. Wish it had been yesterday as I bill on quarter end values. Ran the numbers today and fortunately my income did not fall during the quarter. Mostly because I brought in mor enew money than i had losses. Regret not putting the last 10% to work last Friday. I don't think we will see last week's lows again.
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