Toutatis 12.12.2012 pass..with earth, page 1
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Topic started on 15-3-2008 @ 11:56 PM by thefreepatriot
I am extremly worried with this NEO(near earth asteroid) it buzzed us by surprise in 2004 and came within 963,000 miles of Earth.. this year it will buzz as as well. at 483,370 miles in November. as a comparison the moon in apogee mode is 400,500 miles from Earth. what worries me here is that every time the Asteroid passes earth it's distance changes without warning (like 2004) Nasa had predicted it would pass at 1.5 million miles when itn fact it came much closer at 963,000 miles...which indicates its trajectory is being changed every time it pass Earths gravitational pull\field... it is very possible Toutatis can get caught into a descending orbit on 12.12.2012...now Toutatis is 3 miles long..not enough to be ELE(extinction level event) however if it plunges into one of our oceans it will make the last Tsunamis look like ripples... and if it hits a major city the energy would be equivalent to many Nuclear explosions destroying the city. now since the planet is mostly ocean it is very likely it will hit water... I keep hearing about the Mayans timeline ending 12,21,2012... and one thing we have to ask ourselves what were the Mayans really good at? possibly even better then us?. They were extremely good at tracking celestial bodies in relation to Earth.. . what if they. tracked Toutatis eventual descent to earth?The Mayans had a calender year 365.2420 days long, more accurate than the Julian calendar that we use today which is 365.25.. This is 0.0003 of a day per year too much, .I believe this discrepancy with our inaccurate calender has caused us to believe that the date is 12.21.2012 when if fact may be 12.12.2012.. The Mayans were very good at tracking celestial bodies.. and it may very well be possible they tracked Toutatis and knew it will eventually collide with Earth and when.

Exerpt from Nasa

echo.jpl.nasa.gov...
Toutatis's eccentric, four-year orbit, illustrated here by JPL's Near-Earth Object Program Office, extends from just inside the Earth's orbit to the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. The plane of Toutatis's orbit is closer to the plane of the Earth's orbit than any other known several-kilometer Earth-orbit-crossing asteroid, or ECA. It is in a 3:1 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter that serves as a dynamical pathway from main-belt orbits to Earth-crossing orbits on time scales of a million years. Toutatis may have the most CHAOTIC orbit studied to date, a consequence of the asteroid's frequent close approaches to Earth.


Excerpt from platery in 2004 when it buzzed us at a distance of over 900,000
can be cut in half in 2012..

www.planetary.org...
Even with the mass known, however, there will still be much that is unknown about the interior, and therefore the history, of Toutatis. In particular, Ostro believes that "there's probably no way of knowing" whether Toutatis is one funny-shaped asteroid or two asteroids touching "until we send a human crew." There are no current plans for that, but "because it's in the plane of the Earth's orbit it's a good target. Who knows, maybe some time in this century, people will go there." Humans will certainly be keeping a close eye on Toutatis. Its orbit is well enough known that it's safe to say it won't hit the Earth anytime soon. But "it's in the ecliptic, so it makes a lot of close approaches. Chances are EXCELLENT that it will collide with the Earth someday."



Sources

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

survive2012.com...

echo.jpl.nasa.gov...

[edit on 16-3-2008 by thefreepatriot]

[edit on 16-3-2008 by thefreepatriot]

[edit on 16-3-2008 by thefreepatriot]

[edit on 16-3-2008 by thefreepatriot]


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[edit on 16-3-2008 by Jbird]


reply posted on 16-3-2008 @ 01:23 AM by goosdawg
reply to post by thefreepatriot



If an object three miles long slams into Earth it wouldn't be an ELE?!

This is a two line post...



reply posted on 16-3-2008 @ 07:25 AM by ArMaP
reply to post by thefreepatriot



According to the NEO page you posted, Toutatis was four times closer in 2004 than it will be in 2012, so I think that with that in mind we can dismiss any "2012 end of the world" reference.

And if its orbit changes every time it passes Earth then we do not have any way of knowing at what distance will it pass the next time, right?

I don't think that happens, the fact that the distance is not constant is only the result of different orbits by Toutatis and the Earth.


reply posted on 16-3-2008 @ 07:50 AM by ArMaP
reply to post by goosdawg



No, it will make only "local" damages.

A 3 miles long rock hitting Earth on a sedimentary rock area would create a final crater with a 59km (36 miles) diameter and 1km depth.

The heat from the fireball would make third degree burns on people at a distance of 700km (434 miles); the blast would destroy wall-bearing buildings and up to 90% of the trees would be blown down at that distance; the seismic effects would be the same as those of a (Mercalili) scale 4 or 5 earthquake.

If it hits the water (with enough depth, I chose 2000 metres) the volume of evaporated water would be 95.9 km3 (23 miles3). I do not know what other effects (like the resulting Tsunami) would result from it.

All the previous data was the result of using the Earth Impact Effects Program from the University of Arizona.


reply posted on 16-3-2008 @ 08:25 AM by goosdawg
reply to post by ArMaP



Well....that's reassuring!

Thanks!

That was my last post before logging off last night, didn't think to run the figures myself.

(I have that site bookmarked since your mention of it on the monster 2007TU24 thread.)

As always, nice work!

Edit to add:

These are radar images of asteroid 4179 Toutatis made during the object's recent close approach to Earth on December 8, 1992. The images reveal two irregularly shaped, cratered objects about 4 and 2.5 kilometers (2.5 and 1.6 miles) in average diameter which are probably in contact with each other. The four frames shown here (from left to right) were obtained on Dec. 8, 9, 10 and 13 when Toutatis was an average of about 4 million kilometers (2.5 million miles) from Earth.



Source | JPL/NASA | IMAGES OF ASTEROID 4179 Toutatis



[edit on 16-3-2008 by goosdawg]


reply posted on 16-3-2008 @ 11:04 AM by ArMaP
reply to post by thefreepatriot



If it was not a catastrophe when it passed at a distance of 0.0104 AU in 2004 why would it be a catastrophe to pass at a distance of 0.0052 AU?

PS: that distance of 0.0052 is expected this year, in 2012 it should be 0.0463


reply posted on 16-3-2008 @ 09:32 PM by roadgravel



reply posted on 17-3-2008 @ 03:41 AM by ArMaP
reply to post by VIKINGANT



Oops, a zero in the wrong place makes a difference.

The real number is 0.0502, as anyone can see on the NEO page from the JPL that thefreepatriot posted on the OP.


reply posted on 17-3-2008 @ 02:22 PM by thefreepatriot
reply to post by mythatsabigprobe



the moon is not on the same orbit that this asteroid is on... I showed how far away the moon is in order to show that it is possible that the Asteroid can get caught by Earths gravitational field.. the same one holding the moon.. the moon just so happens to be in the right orbit . so that it does not fall onto us..an asteroid that is actually on a trajectory that crosses Earths path and i not in orbit around earth is way different..
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