The rate at which oil is being discovered is decreasing at a regular rate which would be very minimal at 2050.

At 2003 consumption levels [2], the remaining reserves represent 44.6 years of oil and 66.2 years of natural gas. Does this mean that the world will be out of fossil fuels in 50 years or so? That theory has been around since the 1970s. In fact, the figures for years of remaining reserves have remained relative constant over the past few decades as the industry has replaced consumption with newly discovered oil and gas deposits and has developed technologies to increase the amount of oil and gas that can be recovered from existing reservoirs.

No one can know for certain how much oil and gas remains to be discovered. But geologists sometimes make educated guesses. For example, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts periodic assessments of U.S. mineral resources. In its most recent assessment (1995), the USGS estimated that the onshore U.S., including Alaska, has undiscovered, technically recoverable resources of 112.3 billion barrels of oil and 1,074 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In a separate assessment of offshore resources completed in 2000, the U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) estimated that 75 billion barrels of oil and 362 trillion cubic feet of natural gas underlie the areas off the coasts of the U.S. The USGS and MMS resource assessments make clear that, despite being a very mature producing area, substantial resources still exist in the U.S.

World oil resources to 2025 may be more than two times current reserves, based on an estimate from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) using USGS data. Reserve growth of 730 billion barrels accounts for new discoveries and the expansion of what can be recovered from known reservoirs due to advances in technology and improvements in economics. But EIA estimates that in 2025, countries around the globe will still have more than 900 billion barrels of oil remaining to be discovered. EIA estimates total world oil resources at more than 2.9 trillion barrels of oil.

How much oil and natural gas i left?

We may not literally run out, but the amount left will be negligible.

Originally posted by StellarX

Originally posted by finnegan
Regardless of how quickly you believe the plant material is transformed to oil, there is still a significantly long time between the sprouting and the death of the plant, I would estimate at least 40 years on average.

www.gi.alaska.edu...

Forty years? Why not go back to the books for a while?

The rate at which oil is being discovered is decreasing at a regular rate which would be very minimal at 2050.

It is in fact increasing as it has been for decades on end. ]

We may not literally run out, but the amount left will be negligible.

We will never run out of oil but in fifty or a hundred years time the current 100 USD a barrel pricing may actually be justified.

Originally posted by finnegan

I never said it did, but where does the organic material come from?

According to the conventional view it comes from life.

I do not appreciate your condescending posting manners, let me just tell you that first, although I don't report people for bad manners so continue on with that if you wish. You may think you are Stellar, your personality is far less

I don't have to be 'nice' to propagate the truth ( if it is, that is ) and you being 'nice' does not mean that your any closer than i am. I can understand if you think my tone is condescending but that's what your going to be stuck with while you give me graphs and dismiss all of conventional wisdom so easily....

The source you provided does not show any information on increased oil discoveries. I will pick out what I think you are trying to say show an increase in discoveries and try to explain why they are not.

It was one source but since you apparently did not check my record here that must be what you think i have to offer. Too bad really as that's pretty condescending in my opinion.

the industry has replaced consumption with newly discovered oil and gas deposits and has developed technologies to increase the amount of oil and gas that can be recovered from existing reservoirs.

This does not state that discoveries are growing but that current discoveries can account for current increse in consumption

It is interesting that you forget to include the first sentence where it's made abundantly clear that the world has more than forty years worth of oil reserves at current estimates. Do you think i do not even read my own sources? Do you realise the scale of the new discoveries that needs to be made every year just to keep reserves constant?

Eni’s review shows 1.9 percent growth in world oil reserves last year, while natural gas reserves hold steady; Russia leads in gas reserves; Qatar world’ s leading LNG exporter

www.petroleumnews.com...

The new data estimate total world oil reserves at 1.15 t barrel, about 10 % higher than previously reported for 2002. Additionally, global oil reserves have increased almost continuously over the past 30 years, BP officials said. World reserves now represent 41 years of production at current rates.
By comparison, in 1980 reserves equivalent to only 29 years of production were known. The world has now produced some 80 % of the oil reserves that were known in 1980; yet exploration success and application of technology has led to current reserves that are 70 % higher, BP said. The company has published its statistical review of world energy for 53 years.

Looking at natural gas, BP reported global reserves of 176 tcm, 13 % higher than those previously reported for 2002. The company said that gas reserves have more than doubled since 1980 as a result of exploration, new technology, and the "unstranding" of gas reserves through LNG and other technologies.
BP Group CEO John Browne emphasized that oil and gas are not being depleted at an accelerated rate.
"The data [illustrate] the continued growth in reserve volumes across the world," Browne wrote in the review's introduction. "At current levels of consumption, there are sufficient reserves to meet oil demand for some 40 years and to meet natural gas demand for well over 60 years."

He added that there appears to be considerable scope for proved reserves and production to keep rising in Russia and elsewhere.
"Reserves, globally, have grown over time, and it is clear that the issue of energy security, which has been so prominent over the last year, is driven not by a physical shortage of supply but by the challenges of ensuring, in a world where demand and supply are not collocated, that there will be sufficient traded oil and gas to meet rising demand."

www.gasandoil.com...

"2003 was a turbulent year in the world's energy markets, with supply disruptions, strong growth in both demand and production of oil and coal, and the highest prices in the oil and gas markets for 20 years," said BP Chief Economist Peter Davies.

www.energybulletin.net...

16 May 2007 ,Agence France Presse

"The one-billion-tonne (7.35-billion-barrel) reserve announced earlier is not the final figure. As our explorations deepen, we expect to discover more reserves."
Corroborating Jiang, Zhai Guangming, Jidong Oil field's first general manager, said that even half of Bohai Bay's resource has not been tapped.
Zhang Anping, spokesman of PetroChina, confirmed with AFP that more reserves are likely with further explorations and technological improvements.

www.uofaweb.ualberta.ca...

three years of exploration has enabled Pemex to map oilfields that the state-owned oil monopoly believes will more than double the nation's known crude oil reserves.
Luis Ramírez Corzo, Pemex's director for exploration, told EL UNIVERSAL that on a "conservative" estimate, almost 54 billion barrels lie underneath the oilfields. That would take Mexico's reserves to 102 billion barrels, more than the United Arab Emirates (which has reserves of 97.8 billion barrels), Kuwait (94 billion) and Iran (89.7 billion), and almost as much as Iraq (112.5 billion).
The official also said the discovery could enable Pemex to increase Mexico's oil production from the current level of 4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 7 million bpd.

www2.eluniversal.com.mx...

In its most recent assessment (1995), the USGS estimated that the onshore U.S., including Alaska, has undiscovered, technically recoverable resources of 112.3 billion barrels of oil and 1,074 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In a separate assessment of offshore resources completed in 2000, the U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) estimated that 75 billion barrels of oil and 362 trillion cubic feet of natural gas underlie the areas off the coasts of the U.S.

This also does not indicate increased discoveries, it is only an estimate of how much oil can be discovered in the future.

World oil resources to 2025 may be more than two times current reserves, based on an estimate from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) using USGS data.

This indicates that EIA estimates reserves will increase, not discoveries.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), “Worldwide, the rate of [oil] reserve additions from discoveries has fallen sharply since the 1960s. In the last decade, discoveries have replaced only half the oil produced.

Please do not put words in my mouth. Perhaps you would like to peruse a document from the DOE, which clearly states that discoveries are decreasing.
peakoil

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), “Worldwide, the rate of [oil] reserve additions from discoveries has fallen sharply since the 1960s. In the last decade, discoveries have replaced only half the oil produced.

America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America’s Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC’s short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant.

In the next 30 days the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) will release a new report giving an accurate resource assessment of the Bakken Oil Formation that covers North Dakota and portions of South Dakota and Montana. With new horizontal drilling technology it is believed that from 175 to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil are held in this 200,000 square mile reserve that was initially discovered in 1951. The USGS did an initial study back in 1999 that estimated 400 billion recoverable barrels were present but with prices bottoming out at $10 a barrel back then the report was dismissed because of the higher cost of horizontal drilling techniques that would be needed, estimated at $20-$40 a barrel.

It was not until 2007, when EOG Resources of Texas started a frenzy when they drilled a single well in Parshal N.D. that is expected to yield 700,000 barrels of oil that real excitement and money started to flow in North Dakota. Marathon Oil is investing $1.5 billion and drilling 300 new wells in what is expected to be one of the greatest booms in Oil discovery since Oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938.

www.nextenergynews.com...

For that matter did you know that oil prices had slumped to 8 USD a barrel in 1998 despite the fact that they seemed to have replaced only half of used oil with new discoveries? Why has new discoveries been on the increase since then?

Would you look, and heaven forbid, find, more oil when no one wants to pay you for what you already have?

Well discoveries have sort of decreased since the 60's but why use the 60's as a benchmark? For instance...

America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed.

So ,yes, technically oil discoveries may be down since the 60's because technically we have not started to use even a fraction of what was discovered then. The fact of the matter seem to be that at a price range of 50 USD ( current USD) we are going to be swimming in oil for centuries to come even if the world population growth does not follow it's long term slowing.

Amid rising costs and the plunging value of oil - which slumped to below $10 a barrel at the time - firms including Shell pulled out and the promise of oil wealth in the Falklands remained just that.

news.bbc.co.uk...

It is not a misrepresentation, it is on the DOE website. link[quot e]

www.usgs.gov...
www.searchanddiscovery.net...

And from the DOE www.eia.doe.gov...

Showing that despite the world consuming roughly 0.08 billion barrels a day ( 29.2 billion barrels for the year) the world 'proven reserves' have increased since the end of 2005 ( 1100 billion- 1200 billion) to the end of 2006 ( 1300 billion) with anywhere between four to eight years of current world consumption. How that can be presumed to 'prove' that the world is running out of oil i have no idea and if new discoveries are not being made fast enough , at least according to you, it's not because there isn't plenty of spcae left to look but because they are finding the damn stuff in such volumes that looking any faster ensures that you just have to do more manipulation to make a profit at all.

could you provide a source on increased discoveries?

The new data estimate total world oil reserves at 1.15 t barrel, about 10 % higher than previously reported for 2002. Additionally, global oil reserves have increased almost continuously over the past 30 years, BP officials said. World reserves now represent 41 years of production at current rates.
By comparison, in 1980 reserves equivalent to only 29 years of production were known. The world has now produced some 80 % of the oil reserves that were known in 1980; yet exploration success and application of technology has led to current reserves that are 70 % higher, BP said. The company has published its statistical review of world energy for 53 years.

Looking at natural gas, BP reported global reserves of 176 tcm, 13 % higher than those previously reported for 2002. The company said that gas reserves have more than doubled since 1980 as a result of exploration, new technology, and the "unstranding" of gas reserves through LNG and other technologies.
BP Group CEO John Browne emphasized that oil and gas are not being depleted at an accelerated rate.
"The data [illustrate] the continued growth in reserve volumes across the world," Browne wrote in the review's introduction. "At current levels of consumption, there are sufficient reserves to meet oil demand for some 40 years and to meet natural gas demand for well over 60 years."

He added that there appears to be considerable scope for proved reserves and production to keep rising in Russia and elsewhere.
"Reserves, globally, have grown over time, and it is clear that the issue of energy security, which has been so prominent over the last year, is driven not by a physical shortage of supply but by the challenges of ensuring, in a world where demand and supply are not collocated, that there will be sufficient traded oil and gas to meet rising demand."

www.gasandoil.com...

Eni’s review shows 1.9 percent growth in world oil reserves last year, while natural gas reserves hold steady; Russia leads in gas reserves; Qatar world’ s leading LNG exporter

www.petroleumnews.com...

And considering the price ranges in 2002 how much have the 'reserves' grown given that proved reserves are normally taken to mean oil that can be produced for profit? If the price went up by nearly 500% ( even if it's quite a bit less given the depreciation of the dollar) is it not logical that proved reserves have massively expanded? The problem with reserves figures are that they are almost entirely useless for a lay person given just how easily they can and have been manipulated thus going from eight USD in 1998 to 30 odd USD pre Iraq invasion and then steadily rising as the occupation goes horrible wrong and aids in the meltdown of the USD value.

If you believe oil companies are screwing you, that's all the more reason to seek alternative energy replacements.

And that's why i have spent so much time correcting the ignorance pertaining to both alternative energy technologies as well as introducing information concerning 'free' and vacuum energy extraction technologies. It's not that i don't think oil companies are lying but that i understand how it makes absolutely no economic sense for them to officially admit that there are massive volumes of oil or no very little left. That is why i have aimed to find my own date and why i understand how they are using former oil people as well as politicians to spread the peak oil rumours to allow them to raise prises while still being able to tell in the truth in stating that there are sufficient reserves to ward of investment in alternatives.

Swim in oil for 50$? Are there gonna be any playboy models there?

And here i thought you were serious about this issue.... I don't know about playboy models but for the right kind of money i suppose they will swim in anything.

Stellar

[edit on 18-6-2008 by StellarX]

Originally posted by Lokey13
reply to post by BRITWARRIOR

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I don't think I have to comment on you gramatical errors you should be able to see them, you made enough. But if you realistically think a different energy source is going to be readily available in the next 20 years your crazy.