Here's a scenario for all of you interested to consider.
In 1998, a totally awesome combat flight simulator called Total Air War was released by a company no longer in existence. The simular featured 10
dynamic campaigns based in the Red Sea, specifically the Horn of Africa, as well as southern Egypt, western Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. All of these
campaigns were built around the idea that an archaeologist discovers massive oil and gold reserves in the countries of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Somalia, and Sudan. These countries become wealthy practically overnight and some even join OPEC. Collectively, these eastern African countries
control 11% of the world's oil reserves. Using their new found wealth, they hire advisors, build infrastructure, and purchase top-of-the-line modern
Western and Russian-built military equipment. In spite of their deficiencies in doctrine and training, the Horn of Africa becomes chock full of
well-armed, professional military forces.
Given that, my personal belief is that our involvement in the Middle East has not yet come to a close. As long as Russia continues to be an energy
giant, our support for Israel continues, and our occupation of Iraq persists, we are not done in the Middle East and I fear that the concurrence of
the impending economic recession will lead to war. Whether or not this happens, I feel that eventually, we will shift our attention to the west,
towards Africa, where new sources of energy potentially exist.
So, let's assume that Total Air War had a point (judging from the creation of the U.S. African Command, the game may have been on to something). Lets
say that oil and gold are discovered in the Horn of Africa. With the Middle East in turmoil and rapidly coming short on fuel and resources, the U.S.,
as well as the rest of the developed world, looks toward Africa as the new source. In return for their resources, the African nations stock up on
military power and are now capable of challenging the traditional regional powers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and even Yemen. More importantly, poverty
and human rights violations are significantly reduced, if not entirely eliminated. Unfortunately, age-old tribal conflicts and new nationalistic
rivalries begin to erupt. More importantly, the inroads that China and Russia have made into Africa are significant roadblocks towards any U.S. access
to the region's resources.
This being the scenario, do any of you see any possible extensive, prolongued U.S. involvement in eastern Africa? This is clearly hypothetical, but
with the energy crisis being what it is, would the U.S. risk entering another volatile situation in order to secure energy supplies? And most
importantly, would such a scenario signal the end of our involvement in the Middle East?
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The United States can just get its oil from the Albertan Oil Sands where it has been getting increasing amounts for years. They do not need to go to
war with random countries for oil when the Canadians are right across the border. Between that and the Gulf of Mexico they're already set.
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Can you prove these oil reserves would be sufficient to fulfill our needs? What if the ones discovered in Africa are far richer than the Albertan
Sands?
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