reply to post by pacificwind

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Class warfare won't really happen in the sense you mean. The people are far too spoon-fed and brainwashed to mobilize together. You might get pockets of resistance, but fear will hold most back. A combination of collective inertia coupled with individual resistance dictates the flow of events. The ones in power know this and protect themselves accordingly.

Go ahead and define what I say with 'isms' and other thought boundaries, if that helps you understand what I meant, I don't mind. Your reality is far different than others, I would never expect you to see my way and you should not expect others to see yours.

[edit on 11-3-2008 by Ionized]

reply to post by Ionized

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Class warfare won't happen, although from your tone and your constant attempt to divide people into classes and pit them against each other, you sure are fooling me if you don't want it. It has nothing to do with fear, its that peoples hope for class warfare just won't occur because despite how bad people think it is, it could get so much worse if people bought into populism wholesale.

I appreciate that you let me use "isms", since your post is classical example of the class warfare and populism ideology. Its fine that you have it, and I can understand that if I were to constantly thinking in terms of class warfare and trying to envision and pray for battles between myself and the upper class, I'd probably think the end was nigh too.

My reality is shared by lots of people. Just because I don't make tons of money doesn't mean I have to despise rich people and want to take them down.

[edit on 11-3-2008 by pacificwind]

In macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year.

Martin Feldstein is a professor of economics at Harvard and the president of the National Bureau of Economic Research - linky

"My judgment is that when we look back at December with the data released in 2008 we will conclude that the economy is not in recession now. There is no doubt, however, that the economy is slowing. There is a substantial risk of a recession in 2008. Whether that occurs will depend on a variety of forces, including monetary policy and a possible fiscal stimulus."

"Economists cannot reliably forecast recessions. Nor can they detect for certain when a recession is in progress. Only after the fact do the official cyclical timekeepers identify the beginning and ending dates of a slump."

In other words, when it generally accepted, its already been happening for a while.

The UK budget tomorrow will also be a good indicator.

We live in highly unstable times, and the FED bailing out the economy to this level is a huge indicator of what is really happening.

I do not want to loose the roof over my head, but i accept that the state the economy is in there is a good chance of that in the future.
I am also willing to accept the fact that it might recover, and i can buy that new car.

The fact is, at this present time, it looks like the wheels are going to come off.

I am not controlled by the media, i go through what is spoon fed to me, and look for other alternative standpoints, and base my thinking on that.

I respect your opinion, but i do believe you are blinkered in your thinking, and perhaps should be willing to accept that perhaps one day of good trading does not stop people losing their homes or livelihoods

If you were in business, you would already know what is happening. We may not officially be in recession, but lending organizations and other businesses are certainly behaving as if we are, which doesn't make for great trading. Im sure there are lots of examples of this you could find.












[edit on 11-3-2008 by 2ciewan]

reply to post by 2ciewan

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I read that quote and do not see anywhere where a recession is generally accepted. I think most people accept that we won't be seeing absurd growth rates like the US GDP is used to, but that means a return to normal growth - not a recession.

I think my background is irrelevant, but since you just said "if you were in business you'd know" - I work in a position that serves as a liaison between businesses in government. My clients ARE businesses, may of which are national corporations. I have yet to hear any of them proclaim a recession has arrived or close to it. They are upset that they won't be able to grow like mad anymore, but they knew their periods of absurd growth were not natural and would have to come to an end. In actuality, all of them - and this is in a large city that has all of the so called "troubled" sectors - are doing fine.

And some of my clients are drama queens, so trust me, they'd latch on to doom and gloom and love every minute of it if they thought it was correct.

You, however, are entitled to your opinions and I respect it. We can agree to disagree, I think.

reply to post by pacificwind

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I used to be much more idealist and think there are no such things as classes. However I witness it first hand even at my place of employment. You have the owner, the management, and the assembly workers. The owner one day in a conversation with me even admitted he thinks in class terminology, he raised one hand in the air and held the other lower, saying 'the people up front are up here, the people in the back are down here', meaning the people in the office part of the building are of a higher class than the assembly workers. With another manager one day I was trying to deny that classes exist, and he said to me 'you have to face it that classes exist, and people will be treated as such.'

If you don't see that a class system is in place in this country, then maybe you are simply calling it by a different name, and obviously viewing it differently. Perhaps for the people in power to even get that way, there have to be others willing to work below them, that is the sense that I mean. You have classes of people willing to live in their conditions unwilling, or not knowing how to improve them. But for improvement to happen for some, there have to be others willing to stay behind. What is that old saying, 'who is going to clean the toilets?' or something like that.

Screw class warfare. You want to know what I really desire? Reduced population and smaller tribal communities with advanced technology. Thats right, I actually like that part of the NWO agenda.

What I find ironic and I think marg was alluding to this earlier is this 400 billion dollar bailout I mean lets call it what it is a bail out on top of all the other money so far given and on top of killing the dollar to make more profits for the bank I mean these guys when you add it up is costing around 1 trillion dollars. If you guys want to jump for joy thats fine.

Now to the irony since Bush introduced the "stimulus package" aka the $600 to everyone alls I heard was pundits on CNBC oh government bailing out people giving fee money this and that and banks shouldnt have to work with homeowners and bail them out they got themselves into this mess. Then today those same pundits are jumping for joy on the bank bailout. Ironic?

The fact is there is such a double standard in this country and for those who thinks this changes things it doesnt. This is just a good excuse for a relief rally and yes as a trader ima ride the rally to around 12500 and ill be short again. We have some serious issues in this country and only George Bush doesnt think we are in a recession.

Thats the beauty about this board, diverse opinions.

The article i quoted was to leverage the facts that, you cannot by definition of a recession actually pin-point when you are in one. However the warning indicators are indeed there and have been for a while.

I would not even begin to try and argue with you on your line of work, as i know nothing about it, and im glad that you have not seen the indicators.

However, my line of work has certainly slowed down, and we have noticed a huge slowdown in the entertainment industry, which is always first to go when people don't have disposable income. So much so that we have had to diversify into other markets to survive, and we generally work on the "big" stuff. We are a specialized company, and top of our tree in our marketplace.


History will tell us which way this will go, but one things for certain, one of us will be right!

Im certainly not a "doom and gloomer" but this current climate certainly brings them out, and you can understand why.


Slightly off topic- What happened to all "the end is nigh" sandwich-board people you used to see in the streets, guess they all got internet access lol.

reply to post by Ionized

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Interesting, because I used to be liberal and bought into populism wholesale. It was an easy way to divde the world, into an "us versus them."

Then I got a professional job, and reality hit. For class warfare to work, there has to be a real and large amount of collusion and strategery within the classes. And while this was true for previous society's in Europe, its simply untrue in the United States. Any collusion that goes on is the exception, and people frequently move in and out of classes. Its very difficult to create an "us versus them" which is absolutely necessary in order to buy wholesale populism, when you realize there is no "us" and no "them," just billions of individuals competing to try to move up.

The things you mention are not classes, they are roles. I have never denied there were not snobbery elitists in the world - they have a role to play -, but they do not represent a class. What you are describing as classes I call an economy. People need people underneath them - but heres the thing. The people underneath them were not forced to stay in their positions underneath someone. You can work for yourself, or for someone else, or do something else.

In the populist world, my family is low class. They are poor, have low skilled jobs, and - in a class warfare ideology - this is all the rich peoples fault and its unfair. I don't think that way, because if I did then I have no incentive to do anything - after all, its not my fault and the rich people are going to hold me down. Instead, I realized that my position is defined by me, so I was the first person in my family to do a college and graduate degree - AS MANY people are doing nowadays.

While I have dealt with some large scale entertainment business owners, if your in a small or medium business it could be that the big boys haven't felt whatever is happening yet - generally, the clients I have are larger businesses which can be insulated sometimes. Depends on the situation, I've seen things happen where they are hit hardest and hit first, and other situations where they don't notice anything in terms of economic problems.



That made me laugh out loud. I think they all did get internet access, and are posting on conspiracy forums Now all we need is a few of the street preachers to show up on ATS sending us all to hell, and we'll have some good times!

reply to post by pacificwind

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Im glad you live in the world where the elites dont collude to give themselves a lot of money while wages for their company goes no where. I wish I was there but I llive in reality and that is a fact. Go to www.cspan.com and watch the congress grill the CEOs about their pay and listen to what they have to say. The facts that come out are amazing and the funny thing is all the CEOs on there wouldnt deny a bit of it. Just a taste is as follows

1980 Fortune 500 CEO made 40x the workers for his company. They now make 600x.

2006 average CEO for fortune 500 company made $50 million dollars 10% average company profits. Average Tax % is 19.5%.

Just a few among many stats that will blow your mind. Its part of the good ole boy network. I wish I was part of it

I'm giddy. I'm jumping for joy. And it feels sooooo good. My chin has been dragging the ground for the last two months.

The first thing I do everyday is check the market. I worry. I sweat. I don't know weather to sell all my investments or stay put.

Some of us need this one ray of light. I'm going to soak as much of it in as I can. I will have my joy today. Will tackle tomorrow when it comes.

I worked hard and saved for over 40 years. When you see the market reports you are looking at the culmination of my life's work. For two months I've watched my future going up and down....mostly down.

Yeah, I feel like I can rest tonight. Rest up for the next bomb to drop in our laps. Until then, I will enjoy.

Dizzie

reply to post by pacificwind

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This statement tells me you don't have a clue what you're talking about. How did you come to this conclusion? Furthermore, can you give me a brief explanation of what Inflation is and how it is implemented? Just so I can see if you have any idea of that which you so boldly pontificate about.

I don't know how long or how many times i've heard "The stock market's going to crash", "OMG its lower than it's ever been!". I believed it for a while but then after the recent incidents in the past years of it flip-flopping, is it even "possible" that it could crash? I don't think it can after what i've seen, any thoughts?

reply to post by mybigunit

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I am sad you live in a world where you think people are out to get you and are colluding against you.

Please study up on populism before you post if you are going to say things like this, it looks bad. By collusion it is meant that people within classes are actively work together to "stop" others from rising/falling in classes intentially. If you knew anything about medieval Europe, you could clearly draw a class system where the upper classes and even the very small middle class (shop keepers, other merchants, etc.) worked together and colluded to stop others from rising into other classes.

If you think that is going on in the United States, I cannot help you. People work as individuals or collectively to increase their own wealth. While I have no doubt that there may be a few people who spend their time plotting on how to keep everyone down, no, I am not paranoid enough to think "THE MAN" (or would it be the men and women, in this case) all meet in smoke filled conference rooms to try to stop me from rising to the upper class.

Of course your points just proved what I said, thanks for that. Rising CEO salaries doesn't indicate collusion, it indicates an increased demand for their services. But again, while I recognize I'm surrounded by rabid populists desperately seeking to create class warfare, I do not agree with it. You are, of course, free to try it anyways.

HimWhoHathAnEar:

Your very rude and obviously only interested in confirming your little world view. Do some research please. I'm not doing your homework for you.

thehelpguru:

In my opinion its possible, just not very likely. Of course, people also mistake the stock market as being the sole indicator of economic well-being. Most of what I've seen here is people just buying into the mass media, and the need to constantly predict doom. I have no doubt, and no evidence suggests, a "crash" from the current issues in the market. One could happen in the future I suppose, but it depends on the environment - if Russia invaded the US on Friday morning, I'm quite sure the market would crash, for example

But I assure you, the next time we have a big drop someone will create a thread with a new article that talks about the US economy is going to forever more be in the toilet - and I'm sure people will reply praising it and agreeing with each other

[edit on 11-3-2008 by pacificwind]

HaHaha, just as I suspected. Can't back up your BS.


What are you afraid of? There shouldn't be any 'Research' involved. This is all very basic stuff. And you can't even explain how you reached a conclusion in your OP?

[edit on 11-3-2008 by HimWhoHathAnEar]

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar

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Just as I suspected, trying to get others to tell you basic facts. Your rudeness shows just how much you want to embrace ignorance. Please go get the facts, I'm not here to teach you.

If you were interested in actually having a discussion instead of trying to verify your own narrow worldview, you could actually read what I said because - oh no - I have evidence and conclusions! But your just interested in insulting people, how sad.

However, in the spirit of charity, I will give you a hint. Google "impacts of rate cuts on inflation." Then google "impacts of federal reserve cash infusion on inflation." Think about the fact that the Reserve usually does one or the other. If thats too hard, I refuse to teach you basic economics - I highly recommend at least a community college course in economics though.



[edit on 11-3-2008 by pacificwind]

Ya know, I'm just hearin' alot of schoolyard noise from ya. Can you explain how you came to your conclusion in your OP or not. I'll keep it that simple for ya.

Look at the reason the stocks rose so high so fast..

The Federal Reserve (collection of banks privately held) is generating 200 billion dollars to infuse into the banking markets.. which .. is the same privately held banks representing the Federal Reserve..

It would be like me saying I have to much credit card debt, so I am going to pay it off with another credit card with credit I invent out of thin air.

So people can jump in on these stocks.. because the 200billion will help .. and then sell off again..

Exactly like every time before.

And don't think this is a good thing.. with the prospect of the financial institutions getting a quick booster shot from the Fed, outside sources will buy up cheap stocks allowing them to hold more of our financial sector in places like Dubai and Beijing. The 200 billion coupled with cash infusions from state owned investments funds ...

Hmm..

Just doesn't sound good for the economy...

The DOW going up 400 some points in one day also does not make unemployment magically disappear and bring back manufacturing to the country....

So..

DOW up 400 points, and oil neared $110 a barrel, only to rise more as the dollar drops in value sucking little by little more and more out of our pockets..

Good times brother.

[edit on 3/11/2008 by Rockpuck]

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar

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Ya know, I'm just hearin' alot of schoolyard noise from ya. Can you read the OP post which clearly says what the conclusion is and how it was arrived at or not. I'll keep it that simple for ya.

reply to post by Rockpuck

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Geez I love the post gangs going on here. Not you Rock, just thinking about the obvious presence of a post gang in this thread.

Again, this is hypocritical - the market goes down and everyone screams its time to run to the hills, the market goes up and everyone screams its a lie and we should still all run for the hills.

The market is not a good indicator for the economy anyways, but if people are going to use it as a crystal ball for their doomsday prophecies they should at least be consistent.