Wallstreet Sky Rockets! 3/11/08, page 3

reply to post by pacificwind

---

"The economic situation in the U.S. is really black, the market is now expecting more and more cuts from the Fed and we have more and more news of financials experiencing difficulties," said Carole Laulhere, currency strategist at Societe Generale in Paris.

www.cnbc.com...

What part of this says no more rate cuts to you?

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar

---

What part of this says to you that investors are selling off because of a rate cut?

Around and around we go.

On the day of the upswing:

The prospects for an emergency rate cut before the Federal Open Market Committee meets next week have dwindled.

Source: www.reuters.com...

So let's see. On the day of a huge upswing, everyone thinks there is no rate cut, which is something that causes sell offs. This is a negative impact on the market. The liquidity push was a positive impact. Put them both together...


[edit on 13-3-2008 by pacificwind]

reply to post by pacificwind

---

Futures indicate that traders see about a 60 percent chance that the U.S. central bank will cut benchmark rates by 75 basis points next week, versus a 100 percent chance late on Monday.

www.reuters.com...

Here is the paragraph just before the one you posted. An 'emergency' cut would mean before the upcoming meeting. Hellooooo....

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar

---

Hellooooo, the fear of no emergency rate cut supresses stocks. You are really grasping for straws here. Since it is quite obvious your in this to confirm your worldview and desperately want the last word here, even when you've been shown to be wrong, I'll let you have it. I hope it makes you feel better about yourself.

A review of the facts: no emergency rate cut is a negative factor, a cash infusion is a positive factor for the market. What happens when a negative and a positive come together?

Originally posted by pacificwind
reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar

---

A reply to Pacificwind. I forgot to hit the button

A review of the facts: no emergency rate cut is a negative factor, a cash infusion is a positive factor for the market. What happens when a negative and a positive come together?

You are right. This action will not fix the underlying problems with the Economy though. It's temporary and only lasts a few days until it bombs and than something else happens again. Look at the charts for 2008, spike and drop spike and drop. While in the meantime we drop below 12,000.

The credit market is done for and it turns out retail was off greater than expected and now after our 400 point DOW rally we get just two days later two stocks falling for everyone that gained in New York. That $200 billion infusion was like putting jumper cables on a dead battery. Some people took it as a sign at how bad the banking system really is. injected liquidity is like giving a patient morphine before to ease the pain. Fed rates are getting cut sure, but what about mortgage rates and rates on corporate bonds? Which direction are they heading? (it's up) What are the big players in credit and banking trying to do right now? Dump all their risk and that's screwing the markets. $200 billion infusion equals quick fix to avoid big crash brought on by the situatuion in the credit markets.

We did find some support and are back over 12,000 again today thankfully but it is only temporary. There can be no recovery without addressing the underlying problem and no amount of Rates cuts is going to do that.

Think about right now. Commodities are up while the dollar declines and credit is retracted. What becomes of that?
Momentary liquidity does nothing barring the perception of a good moment.

As far as trusting government numbers I suggest you look into how they come up with unemployment numbers. The truth of the matter is amazing. Unemployment is manipulated in th esame way as inflation statistics by the Fedgov. I too have spent some time working with statistics beyond what was required in college and find it far too evident the manipulation which takes place when it comes to our Governments economic figures.

Truly think about what the Fed did. TSLF will "lend up to $200 billion of Treasury securities to primary dealers secured for a term of 28 days (rather than overnight, as in the existing program) by a pledge of other securities, including federal agency debt, federal agency residential-mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and non-agency AAA/Aaa-rated private-label residential MBS. The TSLF is intended to promote liquidity in the financing markets for Treasury and other collateral and thus to foster the functioning of financial markets more generally.” (Fed statement)

Can you spell I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N? Why do you think the dollar is performing so well?

Not only that but TSLF will allow the Fed to take less than appropriately valued mortgage backed securities as collateral

Think about this statement,
"In the United States, a new tipping point will translate into a collapse of the real economy, final socio-economic stage of the serial bursting of the housing and financial bubbles and of the pursuance of the US dollar fall. The collapse of US real economy means the virtual freeze of the American economic machinery: private and public bankruptcies in large numbers, companies and public services closing down massively.” (Statement from The Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB)

You accuse others of making the situation fit their world view, I contend that you are guilty of this yourself in a major way. Will the economy crash catastrophically? Who knows? It very well may and to just deny it outright in spite of evidence to the contrary says something..





[edit on 13-3-2008 by Tinhatman]

reply to post by Tinhatman

---

I agree that the underlying problems of the economy are not going to be fixed by such government actions. But I do not see a "problem" in the economy as something that the government should be fixing. Businesses and consumers made this problem, they should get out. Businesses need to go bankrupt, and consumers need to lose their homes if they can't afford it. At the same time, I do not think credit problems are going to cause a depression. They may be the cause of a recession, as part of the normal business cycle.

I know exactly how unemployment statics are calculated, I had the unfortunate experience of taking an entire graduate class in public policy statistics. I have no doubt that government statistics are spun, and I have no doubt that the statistics themselves are not. If people listen to the government spin then they deserve what they think, people should look at the data themselves - it does not lie.

Again, I do not find a worldview and force data to fit my view. I look at the data and come to a conclusion. It would be very easy for me to buy in the economic disaster/doom and gloom world view here, because its a part of the group think. But I can't, because it s not what the data says.

reply to post by pacificwind

---

See I took this all the other way. Up until this month all the Mainstream economists were talking about a slight slow down or a "hiccup" and that the idea that this was the "end of all things" was more of an underground view. I felt (until maybe a week ago) that the majority of people especially in MSM were taking a far to rosy view on the current situation and that the "everything was gonna be ok pretty soon" was the group think. I myself until September of last year figured it might not be a big deal though I had started worrying in late 2006 due to housing.

The government interference and the Fed itself along with business caused this problem. In a free market economy this kind of thing would not have happened, it would have corrected itself. Hell, Greenspan would not have even have been able to cut rates in 2001 which is one of the Major causes of this whole fiasco.

Businesses need to close, Banks need to shut down, People need to lose their homes that bought more than they could afford, and I think we may find a good number of former hedgefund managers ending up in jail for fraud!

The way I read the data we are proper fudged. Like I said before, the perfect storm. Credit, Banking, Stocks, Fed manipulation, Currency issues, Commodities, etc etc etc. Everything is fudged and the Fed itself is screwing investors that Shorted.

Every issue can be seen from different angles though, disrespect should never be part of a debate!

www.oregonlive.com.../base/business-3/1205492650264050.xml&storylist=business

Just an article about how the stocks are predicted to open today, I'll give another update so I can show up all the posters who said we'd have a drop before then end of the week. Looks like our economy has an actual chance to level out, an if "you" want to arrogantly deny that fact well keep being negative; it's easier.

reply to post by Lokey13

---

as i see it, the past week has been that 'program trading' that the big guys use...

now these 'program trades' probably have a new variable for buying/ selling, and that is th promise that th dolla won't fall any further,
as the foreign holders of those dollars are losing wealth big time...

so an overvalued stock market is supposed to attract the investors like flys to honey.


the giant swings in volatility is also aproduct of many of the big guys in investment funds are rebalancing their holdings ...and some are even changing the makeup of their portfilos... going heavy in commodities and lightning up on financials...
all these things are making the market volitile & wild...

but in the really long run, US Treasuries will collapse as China will want to monetize their holdings of US treasuries, and the rest of the world will make 'a run on the bank' as-it-were... as US Treasuries will trade at less than 1.5% sometime after the China Olympics when they cash in their treasuries in 2009.


the only thing America has left is the mighty military and the nuclear arsenal... all the good-will has evaporated except for pockets of adoration like Guam, Puerto Rico, Bahamas, .....

reply to post by St Udio

---

As I have predicted several times, America will not fall below any other nation in wealth nor power with out a reactionary war, one depending on how the situation turns out, will be the likes of which that have never been seen before.

A Nuclear arsanal its self will never prevent a economic/social collapse.. Russia proved this, and the several other nations that areby all means 3rd world and have nukes..

Becaue no one will ever use them.. those days are gone I believe.

However, at the time when the USSR fell, there was so much divide within the Union and so many social problems let alone financial, no military reaction could possibly take place.. simply put there where to many large armies that would have destroyed them at quick speed.

The US however is unmatched, if nations continue dumping the dollar, and we do suffer a depression (possible, but not probable) there is literally nothing to stop us from producing more war to fuel a small to medium sized industrial boom.. yes, war is profitable, big time... national debt has little to do with wealth, so long as the people have money (hence why WWI and WWII where so profitable..)

These do not have to be world war 3 type wars.. no, small wars to secure resources will provide enough umph to the economy to create another 10 years of economic gains.. Iran, Pakistan, maybe some African countries.. the Iraq war is no longer profitable because we are no longer producing war, we are however, building a nation.

Of course, the downside is that this is expanding the gap between the rich and the poor.. but no one should have expected that to ever last anyways.. it was a utopian dream that was never meant to come true.. the Middle class will eventually disapear or at least, be less defined then what it was / is..

Unless the underlying problems with the American economy are adressed and fixed, we will only see further economic distress, I think we need to see more job layoffs, more businesses close and new laws passed to regulate banks before anything is fixed..

Just my opinion of course.. (ya brother, I am a true doom and gloomer, lol, yet I consider my self a realist.)

reply to post by Rockpuck

---

We are on the same page.


your resource wars scenario is way-more than a fiction,
although it will be Spin that will make it seem we are freeing people from tyranny and bondage....

hogwash... its profits and continuing a struggle hold on the worlds economic engine thats driving Pax America



[edit on 14-3-2008 by St Udio]

reply to post by Lokey13

---

Yeah, looks like it'll level out once it hit's zero. Zero is level right?

1:15pm down 251 points. 11,893 right now.

We'll see if we rally before close. Otherwise....

[edit on 14-3-2008 by Tinhatman]

[edit on 14-3-2008 by Tinhatman]

reply to post by Tinhatman

---

Bear Stern down fall unavoidable, it seems that they are under so much stress that now is rumors of a run for the banks.

Like I said before the mess that this banking institutions are in is a lot bigger that they were predicting.

But as usual the big CEOs are bailing out themselves and where are the arrest, prosecution and corruption scandals?

reply to post by marg6043

---

Oh there won't be any arrests. They are gonna bail each other out, pat themselves on the back, and have martini's on their yachts while the rest of us watch th ewalls come crashing down. Truly, a bunch of Wall Street guys will get clobbered and fail but those in the know will walk.

I wish a bank would just throw money at me when I got myself in a pickle. Guess I am not special enough.

reply to post by Tinhatman

---

Well funny thing is the Dow finished up for the week, and S&P + NAS finished down but not so far down from what they had gained. The week in stocks has left us a little better then last week, I admit not much of a gain but any progress is good progress. Look for the stocks to sky rocket in the US because the Pharmacutical Companies are going to start buying and selling as the year comes to summer.

USDA Forces Whole Foods To Accept Monsanto
  Posted 8 days ago with 99 member flags

India to pay gold instead of dollars for Iranian oil. Oil and gold markets stunned
  Posted 17 days ago with 95 member flags

Greece wipes out Citizens Debt!! Tells Bankers to suck it
  Posted 9 days ago with 78 member flags

The Collapse of The American Dream Explained in Animation
  Posted 16 days ago with 53 member flags

Proponents of Gold Standard May Be Violent Extremists; Report ALL Suspicious Activity To the FBI
  Posted 1 days ago with 43 member flags

Obama on the verge of a deal with the banks
  Posted 14 days ago with 23 member flags

EU financial dictatorship agreed to by EU ministers last night
  Posted 16 days ago with 17 member flags

Bankers requesting that Greece become their debt slaves
  Posted 12 days ago with 15 member flags

Newest topics, updated in real-time:

Newest topics getting flags, in real-time:

Newest topics getting replies, in real-time: