Even if Abkhazia declares independence, nothing will change. I am fairly certain Russia will not recognize it, nor will any other nation - so the status quo will remain.

As for war - it would not be a wise move for either Abkhazia or Georgia. For one thing, Georgia's military today is considerably better than in the 90's, and Abkhazia can no longer rely on Russia with certainty. However Georgia too remains largely incompetent, and if it decides to occupy Abkhazia it will definitely turn out to be very bloody. I think Saakashvilli calmed down in recent months, and given the situation in Kosovo will not attempt to do anything stupid in Abkhazia. I would not trust the war rumors too much right now. I think it's just the stress effect of Kosovo.


The interesting factor now is Russia. It appears that Russia's support for Abkhazia, Transdniester, and other breakaway regions is starting to fade. With nationalized oil and energy, and resurrected defense industry Russia seems to be losing both interest and patience for these de-facto republics. Furthermore now that it is firmly behind Serbia and against Kosovo independence, it would not be a wise move PR-wise to support Abkhazia.

Russia will still likely maintain relations with these breakaway regions, if only to have more influence in the countries where they are located (Georgia, Moldova, etc.). But it seems that it will not support their independence, and will possibly oppose it if they renew the conflicts. But Kosovo is the wild card that throws everything off balance now. While Russia's behavior is predictable, the behavior of these regions is not.

[edit on 29-2-2008 by maloy]