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Could bird flu be the next world changing Black Death?

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posted on Feb, 28 2008 @ 05:30 PM
Bird flu has been circulating for a while now, and though it's been slow to mutate into a form easily transmitted between humans, that potential still exists and is becoming more likely. In addition, it's spreading among wild and domestic birds in ever increasing numbers, and extending it's geographic range into a large part of the world. The greater the spread, the more chances it has to mutate into a Pandemic.

The Black Death during the middle ages was catastrophic for Europe.

The 14th century eruption of the Black Death had a drastic effect on Europe's population, irrevocably changing Europe's social structure. It was a serious blow to the Roman Catholic Church, and resulted in widespread persecution of minorities such as Jews, foreigners, beggars, and lepers. The uncertainty of daily survival created a general mood of morbidity, influencing people to "live for the moment", as illustrated by Giovanni Boccaccio in The Decameron (1353).

An equivalent pandemic today - either due to bird flu, antiobiotic resistant tuberculosis, or some other illness - could causes catastrophic economic collapse and societal changes.

There is some evidence that bird flu would infect the young more than other age groups, which would skew the population of the subequent generation.

One of Canada's top microbiologists warned on Tuesday that school-age children would be most at risk in a bird flu pandemic, echoing a 1918 pandemic that killed millions of people.

"Most cases in humans have been young, reminiscent of 1918," Donald Low, microbiologist-in-chief at Toronto's Mount Sinai Hospital, said in a speech in Toronto.

The H5N1 strain of avian flu that is spreading among birds does not easily infect humans, but it has killed more than 100 people. Experts, including Low, fear it could mutate in to a form that could spread easily and quickly among people.

"The attack rate in a pandemic will be up to 30 percent, and will be highest among school-age children," said Low, who coordinated Toronto's fight against SARS in 2003.

In addition, the economic collapse and failure in distribution systems could cause food riots and other incidents of social unrest. Vulnerable nations could even end up at war because of the unrest caused by pandemic consequences.

As yet there is no effective vaccine available, and there won't be one for some time. Money required to pay for vaccinations will also be allocated by the "powers-that-be" and many poorer countries could go without, causing very low populations in those countries.

If policies are not changed from those of the current administration, then some form of "euthenasia" might be practiced where vaccines are distributed to those considered valuable to society by the "powers-that-be" and leaving the poor, the sick, social outcasts, and others to die.

In addition, powerful countries like the United States, China, Russia and others might see a pandemic as an opportunity to seize resources like oil. This could lead to further global violence.

What do you think the next pandemic will look like, and how will it change the world?

posted on Mar, 4 2008 @ 09:53 PM
Coming soon to North and South America.

A quick google news search for Canada Geese and H5N1 will reveal that infected canada geese have been found in New Zealand and England.

I did not know that they migrated globally. I always believe they flew a strict North South route.


I wonder why no one has mentioned this in the media?

As far as the expectancy of rioting, I disagree.

I expect people to keep as far from human contact as possible.
Forget the movie scenarios.

There will be an orderly and well accepted self emposed quarrantine.

Gradually the basic hotel services will fall away, (water and electricity) as the emergency workers fall due to exposure. That will be several weeks into the first cycle of contageon.

Of course the distribution channels will have atrophied. As the need for food and water starts to erode the quarrantine, the military will enforce martial law. Katrina on a continental scale.

The Brochures which the schools in Massachusetts are passing out say 6 weeks of quarrantine.
Lets assume the typical house has enough food to scrape by for two weeks.

After 14 days without food it is unlikey to be able to restart someones abilty to accept food. So unless grocerie boys show up with deliverys, expect the point of no return on about the 4th or 5th week of the 6.
Meaning most households will not be coming out, regardless of whether the epidemic has hit their neighborhood. Simple death by starvation of perfectly healthy familys on a mass scale.

If you are not in an area where you can sneak out and forage water, the end will come much more quickly. 4 or 5 days without water is all that takes.

Expect the desperate neighbors to come under the cover of night.
The wise will hang out contageon signs whether the house has been infected or not, in order to lessen the desirability of the house as a target.

As you can plainly see this scenario does not require an actual oubreak to be fatal.

Sorry for the negativity. I truly hope for the best. It's just that people naively repeat movie scripts without regard for the actual moving parts.

posted on Mar, 16 2008 @ 02:47 AM
H5N1 now adapted from 106 degree F to 98.6

Source Link

H5N1 Avian Flu virus has mutated, study says
March 13, 2008 at 4:04 pm ยท Filed under Health, NewsLog

Researchers involved in a study at the University of Wisconsin have discovered that the H5N1 Avian Flu virus has mutated into a strain that may make humans more vulnerable to the disease.

posted on Mar, 17 2008 @ 04:41 AM
Here is a link to an article which confirms a large portion of my scenario above as being the likely government response.

The military is rolled out to enforce quarrantine, not to provide humantarian aid. You would have to assume the military losses to be high somewhere midway through this mess, so after the damage is done. They will not be there to maintain order through the rest or even be there for the aftermath.

The projection is 360 million dead world wide from the flue. or 1 in 20 males, this seems low to me for a disease which has 50 percent mortality.

Of course not everyone gets it on the first pass. Historically there are about 3 outbreaks a couple of years apart.

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