SPACECAST2020Vol1.pdf
SPACECAST 2020 Final Report Vol. 1
First Volume of a Four Volume Set, Vol II to IV are Classified of a space study to identify and develop high leveraged space technology to support the
warfighter of the 21st century.
Document date: 1992-06-01
Department: USAF Defense Technical Information Center
Author: Lt. Gen. Jay W. Kelley, multiple authors
Document type: Report
pages: 486
Archivist's Notes: Academic Study done at request of CSAF to examine capabilities and technologies for 2020 and beyond to perserve the security of
the U.S.A. Study discusses US need for dominance in space for the "Global View", discusses Technology and Pace of Change, Leveraging the Infosphere,
Counterforce Weather Control, Super Global Positioning, Detection and Interception of Asteroids on Collision Course with Earth. Forecast of Earth in
2020 on many levels including population, economics, terrorism and how controlling and space dominance can play a part in it for the US's benefit.
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Into the Future"
Compiled by students and faculty of the Air Education and Training command USAF
To examine the capabilities and technologies for 2020 and beyond to preserve the security of the US.
It speaks about the oldest military maxim which is to Hold the Highest Ground. The high ground being the most advantageous in visual and force
control. They go on to say that when man took to the skies it opened an entirely new dimension in high ground and revolutionized the concept of
warfare. Now reaching for the highest of grounds, to outer space.
Spacecast 2020 takes into account the unparalleled perspective and rapid access to Earth's surface.
Exploitation of these advantages will have a major impact on intelligence, communication command and control, navigation, force application, and many
other applications of Military and conventional control.
Spacecast 2020 makes very clear in this report that to seek the ultimate high ground it must be accomplished through technological capabilities that
are already being used and to future needs for the planet such as asteroid and comet interception.
1993 the Chief of staff of the United States Air Force directed Air University to undertake a study to identify capabilities for the period of 2020
and beyond and the technologies to enable them which will best support preserving the security of the United States.
This 10 month long effort became known as Spacecast 2020.
Utilizing a huge network of individuals to complete this monumental task they called in people from Scholars, analysts, and technologists, creative
thinkers, and assistance from a global data base of AF, University think tanks, and inputs from a vast array of specialties of a world wide data
call.
Spacecast in essence "stirred the Pot".
Global View is the enabler for Global View, Global Reach ,Global Power.
The single most important reason to be in space is to acquire Global View.
This means knowing what is happening in real time, creating a 'presence' which is a deterrent in and of itself and diminishing the loss of human
lives.
Spacecast does not claim to know what the future holds as the world is in a constant state of change and to claim other wise would be a fool's
errand.
Spacecast discusses 3 different types of technology, one is the basic like the computer you are reading now, and the second being slowed by the end of
the cold war era and the changing needs of the private sectors that support such items. They focus rather on the 3rd which is so complex and
expensive, it is slow in development that only Governments with sufficient need and resources can invest in them. This type generally has no immediate
civilian applications. Large scale weapons and space lift are examples. Transforming Technology into military space applications for global security
requires great awareness into current and future technologies.
Space Lift- Suborbital and on earth orbit
"Alexandria Concept" is that Information is Power and that attacking power at its source can help bring it's owner to heel.
Controlling any future enemies access to and use of the information sphere will comprise a significant portion of the total information warfare
concept.
Space based solar monitoring and alert satellite systems that will continuously monitor space plasma emissions, and solar winds an dradiation
forcasts.
Space modular systems and TAV (transatmospheric vehicles). I n this concept a large satellite will serve as the mother board, by supplying inclusive
support of power, communications and housekeeping. Individual smaller modules would then interact via common satellite interfaces. An orbit space
depot would then serve as the logistical interface with motherboards and modules. This functions would then be accomplished with (OMV)orbit transfer
vehicles.
The United States are in a position to shape the outcomes and nature of the planet in the year 2020 and beyond. The vantage and opportunities offered
by space are the means to do so,
Space allows wide area coverage without the constraints of terrain, weather or political boundaries,
Multi-layer back propagation network ( MBPN) shows us the possibilities of using every known sense such as sight, touch, taste in the possibilities of
future technology. An interesting concept that has untold possibilities. With the use and application of neural systems for vectoring and utilizing AI
technology to create reaction and response.These are the first steps towards interfacing biological units with solid state applications.
Near term technologies and operational exploitation opportunities:
Non Military omni sensory applications could bring outside interested partners that would greatly reduce the costs and increase the likelihood of
congressional acceptance.
Consumer uses would include such things as home security and air , water monitoring and quality control as well as entertainment spin offs. Even the
spread of disease could be easily tracked to stop the spread much like we presently track migratory birds using LANSTAT mulitispectral imagery.
Commercial uses will include air traffic control, mineral exploitation improvements,and major medical advances.Aircraft will be scanned when arriving
and leaving airports to provide new levels of security.Medical field patients could be scanned and the data fed into a computer for greater
efficiency for on the spot diagnosis and treatment.Exploratory surgery would become a thing of the past as Doctors would see the problem on the
screen.
The ATLAS system would fuse data from a variety of sophisticated sensors of the future. It will also enable the protection of the future the reliable
tools to get the job done right.
Space traffic control will take on new meanings by the 2020.
SPATRACKs will be the new form of space traffic control, it will be able to monitor objects as small as just a few centimeters which will help to
differentiate between space debris and NEOs,since it will be space based there is less chance of interference and accuracy of identifying objects will
be greatly improved from the current terrestrial based systems.
When space traffic or space transit using a transatmospheric vehicle become routine, this system will be essential.
21st Century weather support Architecture: The 21st century battle arena will be a highly lethal, cyberwar oriented arena.To succeed the the
warfighter must have access to key information to make quick and accurate decisions faster than the enemies. Weather will play an important role for
commercial and Military operators affecting the mission to be accomplished.
Increased knowledge of solar dynamics such as sunspot maximum and minimum will be greatly improved to give us the necessary lead time to make key
decisions. Earth based solar observatories are limited by such problems as cloud cover, atmospheric tenuation,and absorption of electromagnetic
radiation.
SpaceLift: By 2020 aerospace vehicles will be a reality. A National composite aerospace wing would include a squadron of TAV's (transatmospheric
vehicles). These Black Horse vehicles will be fighter size airframes capable of placing an approximately 5,000pond payload in any low earth orbit
(LEO).or delivering a slightly lager payload to any where on the earth. The spacecraft TAV is an innovative concept of the future will immeasurable
capabilities.
The name Black Horse has multipal origins. First a tribute to British Black Arrow and Black Knight programs which demonstrated the basic propellant
concept many years ago. TAVs will operate primarily on Hydrogen, and have the capability for horizontal lift off.
Education in the future will be more virtual in nature for both students as well as faculty.
IN the future virtual technology or what ever its predecessors is will be ubiquitous.The importance of virtual education cannot be over emphasized.
The reasons for using interactive technology are are many. A few of the reasons are, experiential learning, flexibility,timeliness,student centered or
self paced. Virtual realities area multimedia environment that gives users the sense of in realities different from their ordinary ones that are
unlimited.
This is a fantastic document that I highly recommend for anyone to read and enjoy. It was very well written in a clear and simple way as to be a must
have for anyone interested in the development of the latest technologies and their application in the world today and the near future. Much can be
said for the applications of space technology and the importance of funding through congress now to keep from falling behind in the single most
important issue we face today in maintaining our Global Reach, Global View and Global Power.
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Wow antar, great job. I always liked long materials like that and this is certainly one of them. After you've posted here I went through the pages
quickly and my eye caught something which sounded very interesting and realistic:
SPACECAST 2020 does not pretend to provide the vision of the future. The world in which we live is chaotic, filled with constantly changing, unknown
and unknowable challenges and opportunities. The planet's political, economic and social instability is a general condition, not always or even
necessarily a threat. Attempting to predict with certainty exactly how events and capabilities will unfold in an unstable world is a fool's errand.
We cannot know in detail what the future holds. We can, however, speculate in an informed fashion on the technologies that would be of most value and
wich are not beyond plausibility. We can also assess the relative merits and demerits of certain capabilities, consider the trade-offs among various
investments and their returns, and identify the show-stoppers, the items without which we simply cannot progress further. Technological progress is
one whose history has proven to be uneven, nonlinear and irregular and promises to be even more so in the future given the pace of change.
Nice and wise words. 
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