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Mathematicians .. what are the odds

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posted on Feb, 22 2008 @ 03:27 PM
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I feel I can ask this question of you budding Mathematicians out there, now that the Bush era is coming to an end. What are the odds of two skull & bones candidates (Bush/Kerry) running for President in a country of 300 million ?




posted on Feb, 22 2008 @ 03:32 PM
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Pretty high seeing that the Skull & Bones are specifically oriented towards aggregating people with a high likelihood for political influence.



posted on Feb, 22 2008 @ 03:50 PM
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I'm guessing your not a Mathematician, I was hoping for some numbers my friend.



posted on Feb, 22 2008 @ 03:59 PM
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Everyone who is a member of the Skull & Bones has some sort of political or governmental influence:

If you research speculated members of the skull and bones:
List of S&B Members
you will see that the statistics you want based on US population are rather arbitrary.

[edit on 2/22/2008 by Choronzon]


sty

posted on Feb, 22 2008 @ 05:02 PM
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as I understand , there are about 800 members from this organization.

Expecting that all the citizens have the same probability to become presidents (lol, they don't ) then the chance of one to be president is 1 in 375000

The chance for 2 members to become presidents on a row is as obvious 375000x375000 or about 1 in 140 billions. This is because we started with the wrong supposition that all the citizens got equal chances.



posted on Feb, 23 2008 @ 10:46 PM
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Hold on.

300million population

Skull & Bones have 500 at most during any one time.

Do it from that.

From that, it still is pretty astonishing though.



posted on Feb, 29 2008 @ 10:07 AM
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You won't get a proper figure using those devices, for one if there's 350 million people in America, and 500 S&B members, and everyone in America is able to run for president then there's 500 chances out of 350 million, presuming everyone has an equal chance. But this isn't the case obviously. Remember that, presuming the universe is infinite, and then, possibly, the number of American presidets will be infinite, and in that case well then the next 100 presidents in a row could be S&B members, if not the next 1000, its not impossible just improbable. If 4 people out of let's say 15 running for president are S&B members then at the very beginning you have a 4 in 15 chance, but as with bookies as the race moves on odds change.



posted on Feb, 29 2008 @ 10:23 AM
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It's already happened. So the odds are 1:1.



posted on Feb, 29 2008 @ 10:29 AM
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Does he not mean what are the odds of it happening AGAIN?



posted on Feb, 29 2008 @ 10:31 AM
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Okay, the mathematical answer to that question is that there are way too many variables to calculate it with any degree of confidence.



posted on Feb, 29 2008 @ 10:33 AM
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Thats what I was saying. its not black and white, you need to take in countless things. As I said, in a flat out race with 4 of 15 candidates running you have a 4 in 15 chance of getting a S&B member, but as soon as the race commences the variables change per candidate.





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