What Are Australia's Defence Needs?

This post is directed more at people such as Winged Wombat and others on here who know far more about defence issues than I do. After reading the thread Review into Australia's Air Combat Capability I went to the Air Power Australia website which I'd bookmarked some time ago. Until now I'd only skimmed over some of the debate over the F-35 and the SH. Then last night I found the article China's Rise as a Regional Superpower (Warning: very large PDF file!) and read it before heading off to bed.

Silly me.

I had a restless sleep as I realized for the first time that my defence thinking was at least 20 years out of date and Australia is not the isolated and hard to reach place I thought it was. Much of Australia is now within China's reach with conventional weapons using a combination of long range bombers and cruise missiles. And I hadn't even thought of sub's sitting off the coast launching cruise missiles at Australian targets.

Before I continue I must point out that the article is not saying that China is a threat and is likely to attack Australia but is an exercise in "What if?" should China's government change and given the amount of firepower they now have. The article also mentions that other nation-states (not just China!) are able to buy advanced Soviet weaponry that could seriously impact on Australia's security. The authors are examining how Australia could possibly defend itself in any future scenarios.

What really got me interested again in the defence debate were some comments by a now banned member of ATS in this thread that Australia has an "automated missile defence" - whatever that is - and some other more exotic - and perhaps terrifying- weapons. This member also seemed to believe that it is just a matter of time before China invades Australia for our resources. The question of how much credibility we give these claims is not the point of this thread and I leave that up to you. However, it did serve to raise my awareness on the kinds of threats Australia faces and how we could defend against them.

Then a couple of days ago I read an article from The Age newspaper regarding Australia pursuing so-called "Smart Power". The online version is found here. This is a fascinating article and raises some valuable insights on the issues we face as a nation (roughly 20% of the world's land area with 0.3% of the population) and some clever ways we can defend ourselves. I was particularly interested in the idea that Australia should have more submarines which are cruise missile capable.

Then of course, I read the Air Power Australia article which has prompted me to ask this question of others on this board: What are Australia's defence needs?

So... Winged Wombat, Willard856, Harlequin, Thebozeian, Mattguy404, Atlasastro and any others with more knowledge and experience than me - what's your view?

Some of the answers will come from studying what happened in WW2 with Japan's advance.

My suggestions include creating a forward base on Timor and working more closely with that nation.

Second, laying a grid of sea floor sensors like a carpet well out to sea to detect vessels passing over them.

Australia's biggest vulnerability is the huge size of it's land mass and the inability to defend the interior against invasion. Maybe it needs two distinct defence capabilities. One to deal with invasion, the other to deal with threats off shore.

As in 1942, New Zealand was a vital link in keeping it's rear covered so Australia needs to warm defence ties there.

Singapore may be keen for a military base in the region within flying distance of Singapore itself.

I think a logical step would be to forward base in Brunei as it is likely that if China were intent on taking resources by force (including the Spratleys) then Brunei will be on the front line.

A good deal of Australasia's oil comes from Asian refineries.

Sophisticated hunter killer sub capabilities would be useful.

The former Russian carrier Varyag has now been refurbished at Dalian and renamed as Shi-Lang for the former Chinese general who invaded Taiwan in 1869.

Thanks Sy-Gunson, some interesting thoughts in there.

I have to wonder how much NZ could do, though - no offence intended to NZ - but their armed forced are so small and haven't they experienced some severe cutbacks? I'm not questioning the capabilities of NZ personnel - just their ability to project enough power to watch Australia's back.

Also, I can't see the Indonesians allowing us to build a base in Brunei - unless, of course, they feel very threatened by China.

Originally posted by answerman
What Are Australia's Defence Needs?

What is there in Australia worth stealing?




Is the amassing of a massive (and it would have to be massive - D-Day would look like a puddle jump in comparison) amphibious invasion force feasible?

No it isn't.



Australia has no defense needs outside of coastal patrolling for drug smugglers etc.

But due to the stupid pissing contest that goes for international politics, they decide they need a sh!tload of aircraft to be big players - even though their uranium resources guarantee that anyway.

How interesting kilcoo316....

So if uranium isn't worth stealing, then what is ? And here's me thinking that uranium was worth its weight in... well, uranium.

The Winged Wombat

Originally posted by The Winged Wombat
So if uranium isn't worth stealing, then what is ? And here's me thinking that uranium was worth its weight in... well, uranium.

You have to balance the value of the uranium against the cost of developing, building and staffing a fleet of amphibious vessels with support infrastructure to invade Australia.



Obviously, it is a total mismatch. The cost of invasion would absolutely dwarf the resources that would be attained IF any invasion were successful.

Its not just uranium!

Its not just about the resource crunch here.
Its about a strategic entry into the Indian and Pacific Oceans which is at a sizable distance from the corresponding hostile naval powerhouses of that region: India and the US.
Its about the ability to arm twist economically and politically when required.

Much needs to investigated and the geographical strategic value of Australia in the 21st century. Can our resident ATS Australians can take the lead on that?

I'm certainly not an expert on the topic, but i happy with anything our country can do to protect it.

We have a lot to protect. Of course there's the uranium, the vast supply or coal and iron ore and tons of other natural resources. But the biggest thing i think that needs to be protected in the Governments eyes is the joint US Australian instalations in Pine Gap and other secret sites in the Northern Territory.

Our government and the US are certainly keen on protecting and hiding what they are doing in the Northern Territory. There are constant troop movements in the area.

As i said i'm not an expert, but it certainly seems to me that we are an important chess piece.

my vote goes with the usual residents of bondi beach

I would be more worried about Indonesia. We have one of the best organised and toughest military force in the world to, although compared to China, we are tiny

I actually thought our relationship with China was quite ok, at the moment. I think the problem would be if the US and China go to war and we intervene.

reply to post by OzWeatherman


Are you really worried about Indonesia? I seriously can't see them doing any damage to us. I know they have a bit army but surely we would have the upper hand. Although i would be worried if China was in bed with Indonesia. That's not out of the question.

Originally posted by dingleberry77
reply to post by OzWeatherman

 

Are you really worried about Indonesia? I seriously can't see them doing any damage to us. I know they have a bit army but surely we would have the upper hand. Although i would be worried if China was in bed with Indonesia. That's not out of the question.

Only because we are close to them and we have Pi**ed them off heaps. They have a huge army population to.

Although we have a couple of military bases up here in the top end. A large one in Katherine and Darwin Airport is a joint military commercial airport

reply to post by OzWeatherman


I know we've pissed them off in the past, but we get along ok now. Although i'm sure they are getting pissed off with our fellow citizens trying to smuggle tons of drugs out of their county. I'm sure they think we're a bunch of drug monkeys.

Back on point. We do have a huge base in Darwin don't we. That must be there for a good reason. Is it there because of Indonesia, or because they are fearful of attack from the North from China and the like?

reply to post by dingleberry77


I think the base is here due to the Japanese attacks from World War 2. Darwin was bombed and so was North West WA. Up here we had our anniversary of the Darwin bombings on Tuesday.

From what I have heard, if Darwin is attacked, F-18's from Tindal airbase (in Katherine) can be here in 18 minutes, although there is also usually military jets and helicopters here

Hi everyone - thanks for your contributions!

Anyone care to comment on the Air Power Australia article China's Rise as a Regional Superpower? Also does anyone have any thoughts on The Age article on Smart Power?

The current plans are to have a permanent FOB (forward operating base) in Dili, similar to Fort Butterworth in Malaysia. This will allow Australia to conduct training and similar operations out of country at a low cost. It's a great idea and will save millions of dollars.

Indonesia isn't a threat to Australia at all. Their military is primarily tied up with supporting the government in regional areas such as Papua, Suliwesi and Kalimantan, any efforts to move troops out of there will promote more instability. Their miliary is really a different type of police.

China is the biggest threat, but not to Austrlia to the USA. In the next ten years their growing demand for resources will increase more and more and the USA will not be able to compete with China's demand. They will have more money and buying power to outbid the USA in any market.

I read a paper about 5 years ago outlining the next world war and how effectively it will be between the USA and China over resources. It said that the USA will attempt more and more open "resource protection" strageties and this will promt an attack on China. Even Bush has said that resource protection is their number one foreign policy.

G'day justsomeaussie and thanks for your input.

I read a paper about 5 years ago outlining the next world war and how effectively it will be between the USA and China over resources. It said that the USA will attempt more and more open "resource protection" strageties and this will promt an attack on China. Even Bush has said that resource protection is their number one foreign policy.

Do you have any suggestions on how I might be able to read that paper you mentioned?

I've not been to Australia yet, but from what I've seen in documentry's Australia itself is a good deterrent from invasion, the north is a hot/harsh desert and sub tropical forests. Which makes it one of the most inhospitable places on earth. Thats why the Austrailian SAS are so good, thats where they train. that combined with some of the most dangerous critters alive that live there. Salt water Crocs, poisonous snakes and spiders, it would be a nighmare for any invading army.

just my thoughts


peace...

Answerman, can't help you with the paper, it was an internal document at the time and untill it has been released under the FOI I can't do much about out.

Rock Ape,

Australia isn't as bad as the media you've been seeing makes out, just as the American military isn't what we see on tv. Remember everything is enhanced and exaggeraged. I've spent a fair bit of time in the bush and still haven't come across too many snakes that can kill someone, mostly they are more afraid of you than you are of them. As with spiders, they can't kill an adult (generally unless you are allergic) are really are more than a nusance than something to go nuts over. Salt water crocs are only a worry if you are in the area and then it's quite easy to put yourself in a position where you won't deal with them.

Trust me, if you are from the USA you are more likely to die from your gun control (or lack there of) laws than anything in Australia.

Australias defences are more than fine at the moment. If any force came and tried to invade us, we'll just tell a couple of yobbo's in Cronulla that they bashed a lifeguard. The texts will be ffllyyyiiinn' and we'll have the full force of the DAYA (Drunken Australian Yobbo Army) to meet them at the beaches.

Complete with a sad mis-use of the Australian flag, racist slurs and a never-ending supply of beer.

I DARE someone to invade us.