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Air Materiel Command (Project Sign) Estimate of the Situation
An Estimate of the Situation is just as the name implies: how intelligence personnel perceive the situation to be at the time the Estimate is written. An EOTS is a common intelligence document for informing the command and staff of current thinking on an intelligence topic. Staff intelligence is supposed to be able to give the commander and his subordinates an assessment of the situation at all times. Ten minutes after an EOTS is prepared it may be superseded and made irrelevant by new information. As new information is added, such estimates are constantly revised or completely rewritten.
Ruppelt dates the start of work on the AMC EOTS, which concluded that UFOs represented interplantery craft, from about the end of July, with completion and dispatch about the end of September. His description of the physical appearance of the document and the contents of the EOTS are similar to the "Analysis." When the "Analysis" was found, some felt this document was the one to which Ruppelt referred and he had "hyped" its contents. Former Major Dewey Fournet confirmed the EOTS as described by Ruppelt did exist, and a copy survived in the USAF Intelligence files. From the _Memorandum for Record_ by Fournet it would seem that as late as June, 1952, he was not aware of the existence of the EOTS. Several other knowledgeable persons have referenced the EOTS or alluded to it. Fournet has said that the EOTS could probably be found in the Current Intelligence Files or the Air Technical Intelligence Center (ATIC) files at the HQ, USAF.
Several incomplete searches have been made for this document. I recently searched the Directorate of Intelligence, TOP SECRET Current Intelligence Files Branch 1946-1954, and all available ATIC documents at National Archives II. Current Intelligence files are not in chronological order. Most everyone who has visited the archives has gone through these. I estimate about 40% of the material was withdrawn at time of declassification in 1987. Everyone had a say on withdrawal, CIA, DOD, USN, British Government, etc.
A report summarisingthe results obtained from analysis of the data and a technical investigation of the engineering aspects of the object described, is nearly complete, and a copy will be forwarded to your headquarters in the near future.