Whew! And I thought we were going into one of the worst recessions in the last hundred years. Well, I feel sooo much better now. Must be the result of picturing what I am going to do with all my "freed up capital." *rolleyes* The man is nuckin' futs. I can't believe even the MSM would dignify that speech with an article. I would think they would be too embarassed to print it.

I think it's time for Cheney to stop feeding mind-altering drugs to poor old George. Such a smart man, the only thing that could be holding him back is hallucinogens.

Remember who Bush's "base" is-- in his own words-- "the haves and the havemores". And they're doing just fine in this economy-- taking advantage of plummeting value to scarf up even more for themselves on the cheap.

And then there are the poor shmucks who actually believe him, even as their lives are falling down around them. Go figure.

The american economy and thus the world economic growth (to a large extent) depends on american's willingness to spend, spend, spend.

when things were getting tight in 2001, the fed's unleashed the property bubble, to inflate american's sense of wealth, and keep them consuming, which keep's other nations employment up (and exporting to us).This was great for a few years, as it kept the good times going.

Right now Bush's NUMBER 1 job is to minimize the negativity of whatever the consumer believes is going on now, he is to shape their reality, into the best possible and believable context, which will keep the consumer spending to avert a severe slowdown in the economy. For every person who thinks this will just be a blip on the economic radar their are two others IMO who think it will be more (which is an accomplishment considering B. Spears is the biggest thing in the headline's now). The reason the economy is sooo fragile is because it depends on consumers being extended more and more credit to shop, and this shopping and spending maintains employement for a large percentage of american's.
Housing values are falling rapidly this year as banks sell the homes they "repo'd" for cheap. Lenders are not lending any money,despite how low the fed drop's rates, so people are struggling to get their "credit fix". Costs of living continue to rise, especially food and energy, insurance and the like, this at the same times, house values and credit is tanking, and stock markets are tip-toeing lower (but with enough wild swing to make one very uneasy). Risk has been globalized in the last decade. The economy is going to be getting hectic, civil unrest will grow, and the media will be doing their best job to keep american's convinced this is merely a cycle, (since the "blip theory" will not work for many anymore) and we will rise again, which to be realistic is far fetched, at least to the standards of living many have been accustomed to and things will have changed to say the least. Their is much uncertainty at to how we will get were we are headed, and just how far down we get, but in short this is not a down cycle as in "ordinary recession".


[edit on 12-2-2008 by cpdaman]

Read the headline and thought, "That means they've got a few wars in the pipeline."

War is the MOAB--the Mother Of All Bubbles.

Cheney: "Move over Bernake, we'll show you how to keep an economy going!"

Economists and Political Heavy weights have been no stranger to understanding the fact of the unsustainabe ways in which the world economy has been operating, in which growth is thrown on the back of american consumer spending and the ability for them to take on more debt (and people to prosper at all levels of this process) , including thru creative financial alchemy. The same reason or to be fair (basic concept) Bush must massage people's perception's of uncertain times into the best possible context is the same reason no one on bubble vision came out 10 years ago and said look: right now we are enjoying what can be likened to a drunken delusional mania in the economy, we have a few "tricks" up our sleeves and a few more "bars" to hit, but after that we must suffer a "hangover" and most likely go into AAA, and restructure the way our lives (society) is to function. The elite's have seen the big picture or that a new way to structure society would be necessary when this "debt hangover" hits, the closest to it in print, that has been aired recently is when Soros said this is the worst financial crisis in 60 years and the end of a great boom period which occured post WWII. I don't know exactly what the map is for the elite's new global engine or way of doing business and what level differenty country's ( eliminating soverign laws is supposed to be part of the goal of the tranistion period ) will enjoy in this machine or "NWO" . They have something planned, and things like GW are one of the few "exits" they have funded to get us there more willfully. People will probably be tricked or marketed in some way to feel very guilty for the damage we have done to the enviornement and that in this shame we will adhere to the lower standard of living that was going to be inevitable (no matter what was the case with enviornement (not to mention the military is the biggest polluter) due to the unsustainable financial and economic system we have led ourselves toward. I don't necessarily think the world economic beating that is to come will drive society into the ground, but it just may set the stage for a global war, which out of the ashes may come the "new global business/societal model" or NWO.

(a war is not necessary for this , but quite possible because to put it bluntly their is not a sustainable system going forward in our capitalist/ materialistic society for the amount of people (population in the world today) to enjoy an even decent type and level of employement (long term i.e 20 plus years) with the amount of debt that is already saddled on people, the solution is to some how reduce the ratio of consumer debt and some form of depopulation, the possibilities for the latter are surely thru war and other mass hunger or disease (which i think have proved most efficient (as sickening as that sounds) thru history.

the banking system in this country is desperate and will be doing deperate things to "help" or makesure more homeowners don't walk out of houses and make the usually smarter decision to rent than be a "debt slave" as the value of their home is falling for a while, while the payment is not. Bankers had a intellectual breakthru in lending years ago (as economist Micheal Hudson) has said, that they came to realize the "poor" are honest and believe it is a matter of honor to repay their debts, well the mortaged lenders bet heavily on this, and will soon be offering deals to test these psychological "soft spots" that they knowlingly and maliciously took advantage of. They would much rather re-negotiate some mortgage and enjoy continued payments on principal and intrest then dump a house for a dirt cheap price. what a wicked web we have our selves in.

[edit on 12-2-2008 by cpdaman]

oh and Warren B. offering to take MBIA's Ambac, and FGIA's most dependable and profitable line of business away from them is not gonna happen.

These monoline company's have enjoyed steady profits from insuring muni's for almost 15 years, and they just got greedy trying to ensure the other mortgage backed bond crap (thanks to the huge returns during the housing boom).

One of the 3 has already declined and the other 2, well i just don't see how it would make any sense from their standpoint, it seems to me if that were to happen then MBIA and the gang would be left with only the crap they have much of their losses on and have a higher chance of default which would (pump up the need for a governement bailout) because other wise mutual fund and mortgage bond losses would be huge in a default by these companies.

it shows how desperate markets act irrationaly, becuase if buffet was insuring muni's that means the company's would tank and losses would be large. sure muni's get some level of certainty, but not holders of mortgage bonds. I would like to say i would like to offer some good news and some good spin but these are the realistic takes on the situation that is being spun as a "good news" in the markets.

[edit on 12-2-2008 by cpdaman]

I have been on top of it Cpdaman, that was the first thing I heard in the markets news today.

Warren trying to profit from the bonds insurance, but hey they said no, perhaps because the problem is bigger and they want no exposure or either they are waiting for a better deal.

Today the markets are looking good, but is because the infusions by the fed again.

The new round of infusions is starting again.

"LMAO" ?

This is hardly a laughing matter. And is it me, or do people around here seem to "want" the US economy to collapse?

You people cannot possibly comprehend that just maybe...this thing might blow over cooler than many here expected. Everyone is wrong at one point in their lifes. Do not live in denial.

gottago ain't that the truth

and i know that the messenger always get's shot

It's pretty amazing that this guy's been in the white house for 8 years!! I sometimes almost think he really believes what he says!! No, not a chance. HE'll go down as one of the worst presidents of All TIme. Right next to the guy who let the Fed take over!! Was it woodrow wilson?? Go to Paraguay GW!! Take the rockefeller clan with you!! We the american people will TRY and put the pieces back together!! Might take 50 years to correct the Bush/CLinton years though!

Originally posted by cpdaman
oh and Warren B. offering to take MBIA's Ambac, and FGIA's most dependable and profitable line of business away from them is not gonna happen.

These monoline company's have enjoyed steady profits from insuring muni's for almost 15 years, and they just got greedy trying to ensure the other mortgage backed bond crap (thanks to the huge returns during the housing boom).

One of the 3 has already declined and the other 2, well i just don't see how it would make any sense from their standpoint, it seems to me if that were to happen then MBIA and the gang would be left with only the crap they have much of their losses on and have a higher chance of default which would (pump up the need for a governement bailout) because other wise mutual fund and mortgage bond losses would be huge in a default by these companies.

it shows how desperate markets act irrationaly, becuase if buffet was insuring muni's that means the company's would tank and losses would be large. sure muni's get some level of certainty, but not holders of mortgage bonds. I would like to say i would like to offer some good news and some good spin but these are the realistic takes on the situation that is being spun as a "good news" in the markets.

[edit on 12-2-2008 by cpdaman]

FYI: (my opinion)
We talked about this at work today and the fact that Warren made the offer has pretty much decided the fate of the so-called mono-lines. The NYS Insurance department was gearing up to force the banks to bail them out. I know it was in the best interest for the banks so there would not be billions upon billions in write downs, but there was not 1 bank that was willing to go along with the Insurance regulator (yes, I have sources on the inside of those bank meetings, but it is already public knowldege).

Warren made the offer and the banks see this as their out. The NYS inurance regulator know longer has any clout over these banks and can not talk them into the bailout. There is another option. An option the banks like, Buffet's name is golden to them. The monolines can say no all they want... They can either sell out now and attempt to save the rest of the company, or they can sell out later in a forced liquidation.. Either way, everyone now know Warren will be there to buy the muni portfolios. This is good news for the states and municipalities as it will sure up their ratings an allow them to continue to raise money.

For full disclosure I covered my shorts in ABK way to early, but I am still short MBI from the mid $60's. Yes, I think there is no value left in either company and intend on covering my short under $5.

Also, I am a firm believer that the markets are not going to be as bad as you all seem to think. We held the 1325 level on more than one occasion. I have been trading a range on the S&P's of 1325 - 1385. Buy the dip sell the top. I have done this 3 times now and am currently long again. I just want you to know I am not just talking positive on the markets, but actively trading this range. I firmly believe the low end of any range will be 1260 on the S&P and 1425 on the high side. I also believe that by the summer we will trade above the 1425 level. Right now I am happy making the range in both directions.