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OIL: March NYMEX crude trading at about $93.79, up $2.02 on the day
after Venezuela's Chavez threatened economic war on the US after oil
giant Exxon-Mobil obtained a freeze on Venezuelan assets as it seeks to
halt nationalization of its assets in Venezuela. Analyst Win Thin of BBH
notes though that "the interesting thing about Venezuelan oil is that it
is very sour (high sulfur content) and that not too many refineries
worldwide are capable of handling this oil (most are located in the US).
It would be virtually impossible for Venezuela to simply sell its oil
elsewhere, and so Chavez is unlikely to follow through on this immediate
threat." Thin does not expect Venezuela to risk becoming a global pariah
by halting debt payments or defaulting on loans but he cautions "Look
for Chavez to make more inflammatory comments in the coming days, but
without actually following through on these threats. Either way, we do
not think Venezuela (with GDP of only $225 bln) is large enough to cause
any sort of EM-wide selloff."