The american denial of global warming..., page 5
Pages: <<  2    3    4    5  >>
ATS Members have flagged this thread 5 times


reply posted on 6-8-2008 @ 08:20 AM by melatonin
reply to post by Johnmike



From my OP:

"As I said, very good talk. If you are interested in the basic history of the science, and its denial, well worth the hour."

It's a talk by a historian of science about the history of climate science and its denial. It isn't meant to be a thorough analysis of the scientific evidence.

If you want the scientific evidence in detail, perhaps read the latest IPCC report.

repeatedly states that there's an overwhelming consensus, going as far to compare it to there being hundreds of thousands who are on the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming bandwagon (note catastrophic and anthropogenic) to three who aren't.


She uses this thousands of physicists vs. three to criticise the political tactic of using the 'fairness doctrine' in the media to give apparent equality for the position of the deniers (even using threats of lawsuits to ensure this illusion). A BS tactic used for FUD.

It clearly shows that these groups have little scientific credibility and go direct to the media to give an illusion of there being some serious debate over the basic scientific position (just like the dishonest creationists with intelligent design).

This tactic has been shown to work, but it's nothing more than dishonest tactics from industry funded think-tanks. The same tactics were used by many of the same people who were tobacco industry shills (and CFC denial etc). On examination, she argues how the media shows about 50/50 split between positive and negative stories for climate science - the illusion of balance. Yet in the scientific literature, there is a consensus and has been for decades.

Of course, the general public tend not to read the scientific literature. The shills are using mass media to create FUD - a BS political game.

no actual evaluation of anything, including the "consensus."


Naomi Oreskes has assessed the scientific consensus. That is her claim to fame. Her work is in a paper published in Science.

Moreover, she also describes the presence of a scientific consensus nearly 30 years ago about where we were heading (e.g., JASON and Charney reports), and even a bipartisan political consensus. She also outlines predictions made decades ago that have been verified. Then she goes onto the question of what happened since then - the rise of the industry shills and conservative/free market fundie political shennanigans.

I think your comment is pretty disingenuous. But, hey, no surprises.

[edit on 6-8-2008 by melatonin]


reply posted on 6-8-2008 @ 09:38 AM by melatonin
Originally posted by undermind
...the sun can be eliminated as it has been going nowhere for the last 50 years.


really o


Yeah, really.

The same can't be said for the Hockey Team. What are you, like fourteen or something?


Not quite.

www.climatechangeissues.com...

WARNING! The above pdf is purest heresy to Team world.


What the hockey stick debate is about is more of the dishonesty and misdirection of a certain group of deniers. About a dozen studies have essentially verified the original findings of Mann et al.

Hockey stick, medieval warming, grapes in england, Mann blah blah. Rinse, wash, repeat.

This thread is really about the denial industry. It's not really about the evidence, tbh. That's pretty boring to me. Almost every whine you have I've seen dozens of times. If you have anything new, I might be interested.

[edit on 6-8-2008 by melatonin]


reply posted on 6-8-2008 @ 04:37 PM by melatonin
Originally posted by Johnmike
Hey, I just thought it didn't go over anything properly. There was barely a history lesson outside of "They've been saying it would happen! But you didn't listen!!!"


Oh, come on, JM. Be fair.

She starts all the way back at the embryonic stage of climate science with Tyndall in the mid 1800s, then to Arrhenius. Then Callender, Revelle and Keeling up to the 60s. Then to the more modern organisations before the IPCC and after its conception, all the time showing how the data has collected and become more robust over time. That's a pretty good coverage of the history.

It doesn't say much about "the American denial of global warming" aside from some passing accusations of fake science propagated by the industry. It's basically a bunch of claims and a description of a couple scientists. I know you didn't claim that it was on par with a scientific paper, but I still think that it's nothing more than a bunch of claims.


Well, in this second part she covers the history of the main movers and shakers of the denial industry, particularly old stodgy Fred Singer and his history in tobacco and CFC denial. Also pointing out the history of one of the major denial think-tanks - George Marshall - from its roots in defence industry lobbying and free market 'fundamentalism'. This stage covers much of the dirty non-scientific tactics used by these people and groups.

Indeed, the same tactics are used to this day.

As for global warming itself, I'm still on the fence. I have no idea what to believe. Analyzing the data is hard (do you know that site that had the up to date satellite temperature records? it was great) and I'm not just going to believe in something because I'm told to, you know?


I suppose it is hard without access to the primary literature, but the IPCC report, in spite of denial industry canards, is the best place to start.

If you want the up-to-date satellite data you'd really need to go to the source. Thus, UAH for one set of data, and RSS for another.

RSS is
here.


reply posted on 7-8-2008 @ 05:17 AM by undermind
reply to post by Johnmike



Steve McIntyre's story


On August 1, 2005, I was invited by IPCC to act as a reviewer. (I guess this makes me one of the 2500 scientists who support IPCC conclusions, although my review comments have all been ignored as far as I can tell.)


You have been nominated to serve as an Expert Reviewer for the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. The first draft of this report will be available for expert review from Friday, 9 September 2005, with all review comments due by Friday, 4 November 2005.


I accepted. In September 2005, I noticed that the Paleoclimate chapter cited two then unpublished studies by D’Arrigo et al (later D’Arrigo et al 2006) and Hegerl et al (later Hegerl et al J Clim 2006). In order to carry out my responsibilities as a reviewer, I wanted to see the supporting data for these studies and I accordingly wrote to the IPCC Technical Services Unit at UCAR in Boulder on Sep 20, 2005 as follows:

I have been unable to locate supplementary information or data archives for several of the articles posted at the pdf location for Chapter 6 and would appreciate assistance in this regard.
1) Hegerl et al, submitted. Can you provide me with an ftp location for the proxy data used in this study (which does not even list the proxies used) or post it at your website.
2) D’Arrigo et al, submitted. Again, this data has not been archived at WDCP. Can you provide me with an ftp location for the proxy data used in this study or post it at your website.


On Sep 22, 2005, Martin Manning of the IPCC/UCAR TSU wrote back refusing to provide this data in the following terms:

… It is normal practice that expert reviewers of scientific works check the references given and the way they are used. We certainly expect this during the review of the first draft of our report and are grateful that you have identified an issue that the authors will need to deal with in the next draft if that can not be done now.

The second issue is availability of data used in cited literature. As you have recognized some of this is available at data centers. Often the original authors of the cited papers will release their data on request. However, the IPCC process assesses published literature, it does not involve carrying out research, nor do we have the mandate or resources to operate as a clearing house for the massive amounts of data that are used in the climate science community or referred to in the literature used by our authors. Given the many different approaches to intellectual property and data release in different countries and agencies such an undertaking would in any case not be possible.




SEE THE DATA?!? ARE YOU MAD?!?

In truth I can see where the IPCC are coming from: according to the hand that feeds them, they're not there to assist in the actual scientific investigation of global warming. The science is a given. They understand this, like the good little highly-paid munchkins they are.

The problem is, they need real scientists to put their name to what amounts to self-fulfilling prophesy, and some real scientists like Steve McIntyre actually have this nasty habit of wanting to see the data.


[edit on 7-8-2008 by undermind]


reply posted on 7-8-2008 @ 05:33 AM by undermind


My request for data pertains to two papers which are presently unpublished and for which the data is unarchived. One of the papers does not even list the data used. I request that you simply contact the authors who submitted the articles in question and ask him/her to provide an FTP location for the data so that it can be reviewed. The request can be made through a simple email and does not require resources beyond those available to you. You could have submitted the request as quickly as it took you to draft your reply to me. If the authors refuse to provide their data pursuant to a request from you, then that would be a factor in my review, as it should be for IPCC itself, as to whether the article should be referenced by IPCC.


The next day, Sep 23, 2005, Manning made the following shirty reply:

Let me repeat - If you wish to obtain data used in a paper then you should make a direct request to the original authors yourself. It would be inappropriate for the IPCC to become involved in that communication and I have no intention of allowing the IPCC support unit to provide you with what would in effect be a secretarial service. There are over 1200 other scientists on our list of reviewers and we simply can not get involved in providing special services for each. I gave you the courtesy of a detailed response earlier to ensure there was no confusion about our process which is my responsibility. Acting as an intermediary with other scientists is not. I will not be responding to further correspondence on this matter.


Now I had presumed that a unit entitled Technical Services Unit would not view “secretarial services” as beneath their dignity. Perhaps they’d been watching too many episodes of 24 and got the TSU and CTU units mixed up. In addition, by requiring me to contact the authors directly, obviously the anonymity of the process was forfeited.



The
entire story is at Steve McIntyres Blog climateaudit.org (winner of the 2007 weblog awards Best Science Blog).





[edit on 7-8-2008 by undermind]


reply posted on 7-8-2008 @ 09:03 AM by melatonin
Originally posted by undermind

It's not really about the evidence, That's pretty boring to me.


Yes, I can see that.


Har Har.

I've been discussing the evidence for AGW for years on this forum and others. What I quickly learned, is that most of the deniers here don't particulary care - not much better than discussing with some wacky creationist. I can spend numerous posts which required a lot of research and preparation, but they tend to be unable to process the information and quickly fallback to inane oft-refuted BS like SUVs on mars, solar system warming, Mann Hockey stick blah, etc .

Indeed, some of the people in this very thread are still repeating the same old oft-refuted crap in other threads. They have nada new, and it quickly becomes groundhog day-like.

Part of intelligence is being able to apply effort and time in an adaptive way. Repeating myself over and over and over and over and over to people with fingers in their frontal lobe, is not worth the effort.

So, this thread was not really meant to be about SUVs on mars or other inane BS like the anon blurted above. But it's sort of a ritual in this subforum.

.....

As for the IPCC, they don't produce the data. They are an organisation that surveys and integrates the literature, producing the best overview possible of the current state of knowledge. So your faux shock is wasted. That is their remit.

The problem with people like McIntyre is that they show confirmation bias in shedloads. I think the temperature station data analysis by his mate Watts is a great example of that. Indeed, it all went pretty quiet when it was obvious that their data was just a great confirmation of the NASA-GISS methods and data.

They love to bleat about negligible changes in the data, but when they produce data that supports the current data? All suddenly goes quiet, heh.

They are just part of the FUD team, another George Marshall dude. Feeding the conspiracy BS with cherrypicking (excellently shown in his recent Hansen whine article), confirmation bias, innuendo, and windbag bleating. Bit like a creationist that runs to AIG for his serving of ideological programming, climate deniers with preconceived ideas run to CA or Watts blog and regurgitate drone-like.

McIntyre. A real scientist? Rofl. No more than a parasite. A person who sits on the sidelines whining and bleating, reassessing data and cherrypicking for the good of FUD.

[edit on 7-8-2008 by melatonin]
Pages: <<  2    3    4    5  >>    ^^TOP^^



Lake Vostok Antarctica: breakthrough imminent.
  Posted 11 days ago with 176 member flags
Sky Sounds 1/25/2012 Atlanta, GA Personal Video/Audio
  Posted 19 days ago with 146 member flags
Strange sounds warn us of incoming, and very soon...
  Posted 7 days ago with 136 member flags
Volcano in Iceland Erupting Alongside The Aurora Borealis (pics)
  Posted 8 days ago with 121 member flags
6 of the oldest trees from around the world.
  Posted 12 days ago with 108 member flags
West Coast USA: Pay Attention, Cascadia May Be Ready to Rupture
  Posted 9 days ago with 87 member flags
CONFIRMED: Global Warming \'Ended 15 Years Ago\'
  Posted 15 days ago with 75 member flags

Newest topics getting flags, in real-time:

This Hoax Effects Everyone!!!
  Political Conspiracies, Posted 12 hours ago, 55 flags
My opinion about this site's purpose
  Rant, Posted 15 hours ago, 45 flags
Rothschilds Want Iran’s Banks
  World War Three, Posted 13 hours ago, 30 flags
I'm sick of all the KOOKS!
  Rant, Posted 13 hours ago, 22 flags
New Topic Fire-hose censoring
  Rant, Posted 8 hours ago, 12 flags