China establishing a military base in Iran?

China establishing a military base in Iran?

www.atimes.com

In the aftermath of President George W Bush's recent tour of the Persian Gulf, coinciding with a similar trip by France's President Nicolas Sarkozy, culminating in a deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for a small French base, Iran's security calculus has changed. It has almost reached the point of Tehran considering the option of reciprocating the perceived excess Western intrusion into its vicinity by allowing a military base for China at one of Iran's Persian Gulf ports or on one of its islands.

Without doubt, this would be a significant geopolitical move on both Iran's and China's part, bound to unsettle the US superpower that enjoys unrivalled hegemony in the oil region and which has
unsettled China with its recent civilian nuclear agreement with India, widely interpreted as a long-term "containing China" initiative.

(visit the link for the full news article)



[edit on 28-1-2008 by DimensionalDetective]

Uh-oh...Me thinks the U.S.-Iran conflict may have just gotten a little more complicated. This has been my concern for a while now. China and Russia are both stepping up the rhetoric in regards to th U.S. activities in the ME, and this takes it one step further. If China's militia sets up shop, and we get aggressive with Iran, then...well you can see where this may lead....

Not good.

www.atimes.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

[edit on 28-1-2008 by DimensionalDetective]

This jives with what I read lately, that US control of Iraq/ME would put the US in control of dispensing the oil from that region to nearby Asia, including the Asian giant, China. Beside China's need for oil to make all that plastic crap they send to the US, and its need for a growing population that demands more energy, China's military needs oil.
The US control of ME oil would act as a deterrent to any other country (China) who would want to rival the US world military supremacy. US citizens and businesses could go 100% green, and their military would still be in Iraq.

Looks like China maybe sees it that way, too.
Hmmmm, it does start to resemble a giant chess match.

I hope they do really. It has been shown that world order cannot be achieved by a body such as the UN relying on the integrity and goodwill of nations to abide by its rules (read US/UK). Much more effective is an equal and opposite force to US/UK imperialism under say a Russian/Chinese umbrella of influence . This is good news , I hope it comes to pass.

"almost reached the point of", this means nothing. Unless they actually do try to set up shop there this is just smoke and mirrors, that article says nothing. There is no agreement to set up shop there and even if there was, it would just mean another embassy building to bomb. China has no navy to go into the Persian Gulf that would last more than 10 seconds before it was resting at the bottom of the ocean by superior US naval power.

Sinking along with that chinese navy thou, would be your ability to borrow further and continue to spend and spend . Without the chinese to buy your debts and bonds you would have nobody else of consequence left in the world that would take up your debt instead, I think you wont be sinking many chinese ships.

Originally posted by Rahl Darc
Sinking along with that chinese navy thou, would be your ability to borrow further and continue to spend and spend . Without the chinese to buy your debts and bonds you would have nobody else of consequence left in the world that would take up your debt instead, I think you wont be sinking many chinese ships.

It's a two way street. With no customers their economy will collapse. Nothing gets out of China except on ships or planes. We control the high seas and the airways. We also do not have to honor any debt to China should war break out. So their investments in America will be gone and any property confiscated and assets seized.

WWIII is on folks, this time it's...

US/UK/Israel vs Iran/China/Russia

What the Chinese have to consider is if they take up Irans overtures and get involved there, what will the US do to Taiwan and other countries in and around China? How would the Chinese leadership react to an established base in Taiwan with NATO troops ?

They need to weight how much they want to sacrifice and how much they want to get involved, because even if the Chinese have a base it will mean nothing to the US military, where as a permanent NATO base in Taiwan would be something that China would not want. We could rapidly re-develop our relationship with Taiwan by first opening an embassy there and then a base. We can then test how eager really is china for a war and how far they will play the game. We have played this kind of game with the Soviets for more than 50 years, who were much more capable than China is today and we were able to match them move for move and better.

Originally posted by Rahl Darc
Sinking along with that chinese navy thou, would be your ability to borrow further and continue to spend and spend . Without the chinese to buy your debts and bonds you would have nobody else of consequence left in the world that would take up your debt instead, I think you wont be sinking many chinese ships.

We dont "borrow from the chinese". We sell the deficit through bonds on the open market which the chinese buy. IF not the Chinese, the Indians will buy. China is not irreplaceable.

It isnt what you already owe to China , it is their readiness to buy more of your debt that is crucial to the USA. You can cancel all you owe them and confiscate every single asset they own in the USA , but you can't make them continue to buy your debt if they choose not to . And that , not what you already owe , is most important .

I am sure India will rush headlong into buying bonds after the collapse of chinese interest after seeing their investments ..'confiscated' .

[edit on 28-1-2008 by Rahl Darc]

If this is true, I suspect the window of opportunity for a US attack on Iran is about to close.

Starting a war with Iran would dumb.

Attacking Chinese forces in an attack on Iran would be beyond simply stupid, it would be insane.

Originally posted by TheoOne
WWIII is on folks, this time it's...

US/UK/Israel vs Iran/China/Russia

China and Russia don't care for Iran. They just want influence on a quick expediant war where they get a guaranteed share of the pie and the least interuption in oil flow.

Originally posted by Rahl Darc
It isnt what you already owe to China , it is their readiness to buy more of your debt that is crucial to the USA. You can cancel all you owe them and confiscate every single asset they own in the USA , but you can't make them continue to buy your debt if they choose not to . And that , not what you already owe , is most important .

Already addressed! REad my post before yours.

There are plenty of people with money who will finance the deficit spending. Also it would be a good thing for America, as it make our Congress give up the idea of deficit spending and put an end to the Reganomic idea of deficit spending that we used against the Soviets .

I believe this thread is related:

Gwadar Watch Thread


China has been very much involved there for a long time already.

It is a question of confidence . Who would invest in the USA , a nation that would declare war on you and seize your assets and wipe their debt with you clean at a stroke. Why not Brazil or Indonesia instead , a much safer and profitable prospect. Who wants your USD anyway , people are looking for ways to sell not buy .

Russia does care for Iran . They (russians) have out manouevered the US in the caspian sea / southern asian gas pipelines diplomatic battles of 2007 totally . Putin has won every single move .. like a russian grandmaster chess player against a texan fool . Those pipelines will dictate european policy over the years to come.

Already you see Italy and Austria leaning towards Russia. Iran is still the country with vast gas reserves that are not within Putin's pipeline monopoly , it is able ( if pipelines built) to pipe gas through turkey to europe , and break the putin pipeline stranglehold . So russia wants Iran too, but as a partner . not a competitor . Iran would likely see a partnership with russia beneficial too. considering the ways the west .. namely US and UK has tried to steal from it (oil) in the past.

reply to post by xmotex


Not really, any US led or involved military operation upon Iran would be limited, in context, and solely focused on their military power projection capabilities first, WMD program, and perhaps political leadership. The Chinese, even IF they had some sort of token facility on an island somewhere on the Gulf would not be involved nor a matter of concern. I agree that starting a war with Iran at this point is not the best overall solution but not because of these ridicules China, Russia world war etc… nonsense.

We would not plan to directly and openly attack Chinese forces in a limited strike upon Iran. China as of now has no bases on Iranian areas of operation or soil, token or otherwise. China as of now has no, proven or otherwise, mutual defense strategic pact with Iran. As such the Chinese, even IF they should be in the region would be bystanders, nothing more. The US military is vastly more capable and the Chinese do not care, nor are they in a position, to wage war with the United States on behalf of a pawn by opportunity.

Keep in mind what Section Eight and IAF have posted, there are other things to consider as well. And we already went to war with a country hosting the Chinese, and we even bomber the Chinese, by accident of course, and people protested. Move on people.

I think, when the chinese embassy was 'mistakenly' bombed .. when you 'supposedely' used the 10 year old tourist maps for that .. 'mishap' .. you were not economically dependant on them as you are today. If it were the case back then I am sure your little mistaken bomb drops would be dropped on some other innocent nation's embassy instead ( that hadn't towed the US line and needed an uncle sam warning ) . Didn't the chinese capture and keep one of your spy aircraft/crew ( crashed on chinese soil ) not many months before that event ?

Those days, China was a rural agricultural backwater, not the asian economic superpower it is today, so you are not really telling the whole story with the 'we already bombed them' and a dismissive wave of their relevance as compared to a similar event happening today and it's potential consequences .







[edit on 29-1-2008 by Rahl Darc]

Originally posted by Rahl Darc
...you were not economically dependant on them as you are today.

Eh, the US is a big factor in fueling China's rapidly growing economy. Either way I digress, the US military is still dominant in power and force projection. Which at the end of the day would be the point of any souvenir shop the Chinese may, if, when, open on Iranian soil, somewhere. Also, for the record, I am of the opinion that the attack on the Chinese embassy was indeed a careless error and not a premeditated attack.

Originally posted by Rahl Darc
Didn't the chinese capture and keep one of your spy aircraft/crew ( crashed on chinese soil ) not many months before that event ?

No, the Hanin Island Incident which involved an EP-3E Orion aircraft and a foolish Chinese stunt occurred on 1 April 2001, almost two years later.