Hypothetical attack on U.S. outlined by China

reply to post by xmotex


I agree. But, I seriously do believe that China will not be alone in aggression against the United States and that would make it even worse.

I was just thinking about where the 2008 Olympics are to be held, then I suddenly remembered....."China." I am not making any assumptions, but my thoughts on this are scattered to say the least. How many Olympics were held during wars in which the United States were involved in? I am thinking of one at the moment and that was WW2. Help me out here. Thank you.

Originally posted by xmotex
Their forces are not geared for long range power projection, it does not appear to be part of their strategy. They are interested in accruing soft (economic) power overseas, but don't seem particularly interested in foreign interventionism.

Again, the report mostly deals with antiaccess strategy, and does not focus on China's force projection capabilities. While I agree that a conflict over Taiwan will not likely happen because of the reasons you mentioned and others, it is not Taiwan that I am concerned about. China's sale of weapons to Iran, and the possibility of China getting involved, combined with Russia, if Israel strikes Iran's facilities is more the issue.

Well I think there is a keen awareness on the part of China and Russia that the US, especially the crowd behind the current administration, is attempting to appoint itself leader of the planet, and that they will take action to prevent that, sooner or later.

However I'm not sure if they would use direct action, or sucker us into a bunch of proxy wars of attrition until the US populace finally says "enough!" I don't see anything imminent anyway, I expect they are waiting to see what happens in the 2008 elections, which are likely to result in a less aggressive US foreign policy.

I pointed out their apparent disinterest in power projection only to point out that an invasion of CONUS as discussed before is extremely unlikely. The Chinese "military buildup" the Pentagon hyperventilates about so much (in order to keep defense budgets up no doubt) is hardly a "threat" to the United States, it's almost entirely defensive in nature.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Well, doesn't seem to me the Chinese are all that terrified of our "superiority":

The Chinese asserting themselves on the political as well as military front is not shocking or anything to be really concerned about, I personally welcome it. Nothing drives the US like peer competition, our greatest achievements and military capability have come from having peer competitors in the field. After the ignorant holiday which was the 90's we'll start to shift policy and equip our forces for another multi-polar world. Anyway, the Chinese know they cannot conventionally win a direct confrontation with the US military, they simply don't have the forces nor the experience, can they cause a lot of damage? Absolutely, but global wars aren't won without losses. If China was assured that they could defeat the US military as well as Japan/South Korea they would have already attacked Taiwan. In any case, asserting oneself in the political arena as well as limited military show does not really translate into anything other than a shift in policy. Anyone can bark, take Hugo Chaves for example, Venezuela would last at the most a month to a few months against the US yet that does not stop their President against acting like he isn't terrified of our "superiority".

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
…with all due respect that report is pretty substantial, and I just can't write it off as rhetoric as easily as you.

What report? The one listing a "possible" scenario? How many "possible" scenarios are there? Why not list the probable scenario? Why not take the time to research and understand military matters, history, capability, policy etc.. and then analyze the situation for yourself instead of relying on op ed pieces. For starters I recommend the Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of China (2007), as well as the links below. Don't by into the hype, if I took the time to write an article and sound like I knew what I was talking about I'm sure I could convince someone that China would lose in a month, when in reality that would be crap.

Chinese Military Power
Chinese Military Power 2

I highly recommend reading the following compilation of articles found at this site.
US Policy Toward China (MUST READ)

Chinese Defense Budget

US Military

US Military
US Military 2
US Forces

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
And what's more, westpoint, it seems those of us that express concern over China's capabilities are not limited to the mere ATS citizenry:

Umm… what else do you expect the Pentagon to say, it's politics, threats bring money, money brings forces and new capability. Now I'm not saying that China is a paper tiger, never have, just that they cannot yet win a direct war with the US military, they know it and we know it. But of course we will demand transparency and express concern at every opportunity we get. It ensures our allies we are interested in the matter, increases global pressure on China, boosts US military capability and it might just perhaps falsely boost Chinese confidence. The US military knows one day the Chinese will pose a more credible threat to us, as such is would be prudent to shift out focus on the pacific, and we have quietly done just that. When you're strong you play weak, when you're weak you play strong, oldest game in the book. Of course the US will publicly criticize China and overplay their capability in order to set the stage for getting the material it needs to take steps in order to ensure that when the day to really be worried comes we are prepared.

Pentagon Overestimates Chinese Military (Recommended Reading)

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
So it appears they are actively moving to control the Taiwan Strait. So what does Washington think about that?

It is not a good development, Taiwan alone in a sustained prolonged conflict is no match for the PRC. Can they attack Taiwan and cause considerable damage to it? Can they attack US regional bases and assets and cause considerable damage? Yes. Can they win a war against the US? No. I really don't see what you are getting at. Also, the US is aware of what's going on and what's to come, it has shifted military policy and assets to the pacific theater mainly to put itself in a better position to confront China should it decide to peruse a policy of expansion. Containment is already underway in the Pacific and the US will not concede a single square inch of sovereign ocean and land to the Chi Com's.

The chess pieces are moving in place, there will be more to come, trust me on that.

US Military Shifts Force, Thinking in Pacific
US Military Moves Against China in Pacific
US China Confrontation
US - Australia Pact Shifts Balance of Power
Global Military Alliance: Encircling Russia and China
New US-Japan-Australia Alliance
US Moves Ballistic Subs to Pacific
US Shifts Bulk of Attack Subs to Pacific
Raptors in Alaska Increase Pacific Air Force Capability
F-22 Raptor Squadron Will Be Based in Hawaii
New Build Up in Guam
Japan - US Build Missile Shield in Pacific
Japan Military More Assertive, Builds Up Forces
Japan Involved In Taiwan Straight
F-22 Deploys to Okinawa, Will Deploy Again to Guam Other Pacific Bases
US Navy Hold Largest Exercise in Pacific Since Vietnam
New Biennial Exercise Established in Pacifc: Valiant Shield
Northern Edge 2006 Exercise Aimed at Crisis in Asia Pacific Theater

[edit on 31-1-2008 by WestPoint23]

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Well no. Actually the Chinese understand our logistical and military machines quite well. And have devised a viable strategy against both. But of course if you had really gone in there and read the report, you'd know that.

And all I have to say to this argument that China would never crap where it eats, is it would be rather ignorant to think that without the US, China could not find other plentiful markets to make up a good portion of the loss.

This report focuses on what they could do to severely limit US access to not only Taiwan, but other areas as well. I thought it was worth a look. Sorry it is mere kiddy play to all the brilliant, report-reading intelligence in this thread.

Now that I've read through the article and other articles regarding this Chinese fantasy, it sounds as absurd as the move "Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon". What they propose to do is something even the US military would be hard to pull off. Which is ridiculous. The most laughable being their plan to detonate an atomic bomb in the atmosphere over the pacific, like something a child playing a video game came up with. Its all nonsense and sounds more like a plot for some Hollywood Apocalyptic fiction than any sound military doctrine come up with a sane mind.

Just consider, to cripple all the US bases and assets in the Pacific Theater, in Japan, S.Korea, etc detonating a nuclear bomb inside the atmosphere over international waters, invading a country and hoping to maintain to hold on to it, is a fantasy that even that crazy Kim Jung in N.Korea cant come up. Effectively China would declare war on Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan and US/NATO at the same time! Is that even a rational position for anybody except the suicidal ? Yet you call this a "viable" option ! Who is more deluded ??

If this was truly the case and the Chinese are able to pull it off it would make the Pearl harbor look like traffic accident. Even if the airforce is "somehow" crippled, they are forgetting about the dozen Ohio Class subs scattered around the world that would surface off the coast of China and launch their Trident 2 missiles( they carry 34 each!) with 4 nuclear warheads (total of about 3.2 mega tonnes each!) obliterating one Chinese city after the other into rubble. The USN itself is capable of warding off any Chinese advances to Taiwan, forget the airforce.

The most dangerous thing that would result due to this brilliant "plan" would be that China would maybe gain Taiwan but loose China itself to nuclear destruction and nobody in the international community will ask the US to stop!

That was a hell of a lot of work you put into that reply, westpoint, and I truly appreciate it. That's the real ATS of old talking there folks, take notes.

Your posts give me comfort to a degree, I must admit it. We are very powerful. No question. But not invincible. Two distinct recent cases illustrate the point:

1) The recent surfacing of a Chinese sub, undetected, in the middle of a US military exercise;

2) The test firing of the anti satellite missile.

I believe both of these surprised the crap out of the US military, did they not?

West, you know as well as I that one of our biggest problems with assessing Chinese military capability is their secrecy. You know about the non-concensus on what what their defense budget actually is. But then again, with all our black ops projects who really knows what ours is either?

I need not remind you with all the study you have done on the subject of China's inner tendency to stick to their oldest mantra: that an inferior force still can win over an overconfident, superior enemy through surprise and deception.

The real fact is, and even our top leaders acknowledge, that we don't really know exactly what they have. And the above cases tend to point out that some of our detection systems may have been compromised.

It is this component of secrecy that is the most troubling to any attempts on assessment. Reports I have read, including some of the ones you provided, make this quite clear. And events such as the ones mentioned above tend to substantiate that predicament.

While we may have knowledge of 90% of what they are doing, that other 10% could potentially come back to haunt us in any engagement. I am not by any means claiming that what you have presented is inaccurate, really, but merely making the reader aware that what you and many others present as overwhelming confidence in our capabilities should be tempered somewhat with the issue of China's secrecy- a barrier that has still not been broken.

The question of a US invasion has never come into play here for me in this particular thread. Any references to it are by nature off topic, because this report deals with China's disruption of our forward deployed assets, not an invasion of the USA. It is easy to lump sum it all up into one, and I can see how that can happen. But let's stay focused.

I would have to disagree on the part about China would have already invaded Taiwan if they felt they could get away with it. The human tragedy and continued war they would bring upon themselves in such a case is formidable, regardless of whether Taiwan had help or not from foreign forces. The detriments far outweigh the benefits, or else in the opposite case I do believe they would have already done so. With a pro-China government now in power, the likelihood of a serious confrontation between the two has been somewhat reduced. Even so, I still believe there is a large portion of people in Taiwan who will never give in to a forceful attempt at reunification by Beijing.

As I read your posts, and links, and then go through some other articles I am finding, it is becoming increasing clear that both sides feel confident. China remains entirely confident in its capabilities to defend itself and the Taiwan Strait, as well as insistent that Taiwan is its territory:

From China.org

Taiwan, Nansha Islands and adjacent waters are all inseparable parts of Chinese territory, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Liu Jianchao said at a regular press conference on Tuesday.

Liu made the remarks when asked to comment on Taiwan "leader" Chen Shui-bian's planned trip on Saturday to Taiping Island, the largest among Nansha islands.

Liu reiterated that China possesses indisputable sovereignty over Nansha Islands and adjacent waters.

"We have confidence as well as capability to safeguard the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity", Liu said, adding China remains committed to maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea.

So who's right? I honestly hope we never find out.