Originally posted by northwolf
I know for sure that most NATO forces won't allow the srebrenicha to happen again[edit on 26-1-2008 by northwolf]

Do you really thinkt that this is why NATO intervened in the first place? Because U.S./NATO felt such sympathy for poor Albanian guerillas and separatists, who under slightly different circumstances would gladly take up a arms against Americans? Sure we all heard the sob stories by the Western media, about Serbians killing here, Serbians killing there... But the decision makers who decided to go to war, could not care less about Albanians, local civilians, or anybody besides their lobbyists and interest groups in the West.

Albanians were never U.S. allies. They never will be. NATO cares about them about as much as it cares about the Sudanese genocide victims. Srebrenica was nothing more than a pathetic justification for a biased intervention by NATO. If someone in the U.S. (Clinton?) didn't find a good enought reason to weaken the Serbs, you would have never known about Srebrenica. You know - ethnic cleansing continued in Kosovo after NATO arrived right?

Originally posted by northwolf
but are they capable of interviening if Serbs use heavy armor...

More like are they willing to intervene? KFOR does not want to fight, and it is not there to fight. They much rather abandon that mess of a country and go home. And Kosovo is hardly a military priority for the U.S. Serbs are more inclined to fight and have a better morale, because they are fighting to defend their country. Members of KFOR are policing to collect a paycheck and receive a service ribbon.

Originally posted by northwolf
I know for sure that for example Finnish force has 112mm APILAS recoilleses as their sole AT firepower, but if ordered to fight, they will...

And what does Finland stand to gain from such an engagement, where there could be numerous potential casualties? Who is Finland going to defend? Civilians? Guerillas and insurgents? Terrorists? You never know - you might be giving your life to save a terrorist who would not think twice about cutting your head off. You might be defending a bunch of insurgents who are making plans of killing civilians on the other side. It is not like Fins are defending their own country like in the Winter War. The other side is way more determined and passionate here.

Originally posted by northwolf
But i can't say that all forces will, swedes have been in trouble using force to break down riots, can they handle real battle?

Even if they can, they would hardly want to. It all comes to Swedish politicians who weight the consequences of the evening news reporting that dozens of Swedes are dead defending god knows what from god knows who, for no obvious reason.


That is the thing - If Serbia really gets up to fight, KFOR's patience and willingness to remain there is very questionable. And if Russia intervenes, KFOR/NATO will be paralyzed and might as well get out, for fear of igniting a conflict with Russia. Nobody needs Kosovo or cares about it as much as Serbs, not even local Albanians. To NATO it is just a matter to pissing off Russia, and believe me - that is not the most paramount of their priorities. And this is the reason why Serbs will be there, fighting long after after NATO leaves.

Maloy, You are correct that mostly countries contributing to KFOR wouldn't have the guts to engage anyone doing ethnic cleansing, unless they were sure that casualities stayed low.

Problem is that troops down there (from all nations) have a standing order to protect civilians. I have faith that at least some contigents would stand behind that order, unless ordered to stand down. But a politician that gives an order to allow a genocide to happen is a ex-politician in the western Europe. It's better to allow troops to decide... and i happen to know several officers in KFROR at the moment, they may give a suprise to you... And i'm certain that some other units would do the same.

Vojvoda, pray that we don't have to see if the 400 Finns will fight... but would the Serbs attack KFOR directly if they blocked their movement, because that woudl surely provoke a full on response. Unless ofcourse Russia blocks nato. It's a complex game of chess going on.

Reply to maloy

Guerilla warefare/insurgency in Kosovo with support from Serbia is more realistic and has more potential.

Guerilla warfare/insurgency of Muslims will Crush the Serbs and their puppets. The US will just have to send a few hi-tech weapons to them with a few fighters from Arab countries.

Its funny how the Muslims are being used to fight each others wars.
Russia uses Iran,hezbullah,Iraq,Afghanistan to bring US/Israel down.
US/Israel use Chechnya,Kosovo,Afghanistan to bring Russia down.

And Muslims are With both and Against both. Later they use the same weapons to fight ex-friends.

Its a Game.Its all about who gets the 'Super Power' Trophy.

Originally posted by maloy
I don't even see why EU cares about the issue so much. It is not like anyone expect independent Kosovo to suddenly bring peace to the region. And do South-European countries like Greece, Italy and Austria really want another "Albania" near them? Albania is the armpit of Europe as it is, and Kosovo stands to become another failed sovereignty.

Cyprus is major opposition and they will be forever. And it’s obvious why . Also Romania, Greece, Slovakia and Spain don’t support Kosovo independence. But they are under heavy pressure, but by time, they can’t resist pressure from USA and major EU countries (UK, Germany and France).
Italy is for independence but just because Romano Prodi is prime minister as he was 1999 head of EU Commission and he was for NATO campaign. Contrary, Silvio Berlusconi is against it but he is opposition. When he was PM he opposed independence. Austria is, after all, OMV lost deal in privatization of NIS.

Originally posted by maloy
Well Russia still can't behave too recklessly. It has major energy deals going in with NATO members, and it does not want to jeopardize its main income stream. But I do want to see Russia get involved. At the very least NATO will back-off the region, and think twice before minding the business of sovereign nations again. NATO's intervention was illegal in the first place, and all Russia had to do in 1999 was come in with a couple thousand troops and spread them accross strategic Serbian bases to prevent any NATO attack.

That is correct, but still Russia can send troops to Kosovo as they were part of KFOR. They still have right to do that.
What I wrote: Another thing concerning Russia - Russian ambassador Alexeiev in Belgrade said last month that if Serbia would seek military help from Russia they will help. And I am pretty sure that one Russian general confirmed it.

Originally posted by maloy
Oh I know it can. It held its own in Bosnia and the Kosovo in addition to a few smaller strifes. But if NATO decides to intervene full force again, then Serbia stands little chance by itself.

NATO won’t do anything. It’s not 1999 . World changed for 8 years.

Originally posted by maloy
I'd like to see Serbia get some of the new toys from Russia, like the S-400 and other associated airdefence hardware, as unrealistic as that is.

No, not S-400. Serbia is not good for such a large AA system and almost don’t have air force. Buk M2 is for Serbia perfect .

Originally posted by maloy
What is funny is that everyone holds the notion that the U.S. was there to help poor Albanians and prevent them from being ethnically cleansed. In reality U.S. couldn't give two ****s about who is getting cleansed where and who innitiated the conflict. U.S. interevened to weaken the Serbs, that is all. That is why I believe that Albanians cannot rely on the U.S. to help them again, because U.S. was never really helping them in the first place.

Actually, some US companies want to take vast mines in Kosovo.

Originally posted by maloy
But what about the Serbian airforce. What is left of that?

4 MiG-29s are in Russia in modernization. They’ll soon come.

Originally posted by maloy
Why should he? I don't know much about Serbian politics, but aren't the radicals fairly popular?

Yes, Radicals are very popular but not because of nationalistic talk, but because of poor standard of many people. People vote for them because of social revolt.

Originally posted by northwolf
Problem is that troops down there (from all nations) have a standing order to protect civilians. I have faith that at least some contigents would stand behind that order, unless ordered to stand down.

You know 17th March 2004 Albanians started massive ethnic cleansing and burning churches and monasteries. In Area South under control of German KFOR they did greatest damage. In area where Greeks, Italians, Americans, and French they were stopped.

Originally posted by northwolf
Vojvoda, pray that we don't have to see if the 400 Finns will fight... but would the Serbs attack KFOR directly if they blocked their movement, because that woudl surely provoke a full on response. Unless ofcourse Russia blocks nato. It's a complex game of chess going on.

You just didn’t understand my post. If Albanians start violence like was 17th March 2004 after UDI and KFOR do nothing, Serbia will be forced to send troops to protect non-Albanians. Why should KFOR interfere? Neither Serbian troop would attack KFOR.
Finland is not even a NATO member; it’s neutral so I don’t see why your post is militant.
If anybody would try to intervene against Serbian Army it would be German and Turkish contingent. There are many soldiers from countries friendly to Serbia. Do you expect that for example Greek soldiers would fire on Serbs?

Finnish contingent:

Unit: MNTF C - Finnish Contingent
Home Base: Units specifically created for Operation “Joint Guardian”
Commander: Colonel Arto-Pekka Nurminen
HQ Location: Lipljan
Role/Task:

* Responsible for Area of Operation (AO) centered around Pristina region
* Provide a Safe and Secure Environment
* Provide humanitarian assistance

Structure: The Finnish Contingent is composed of:

* Members of HQ MNTF C (Camp Ville, Lipljan)
* Multinational HQ & Logistics Company (Camp Ville, Lipljan)
* Motorized Infantry Company (Camp Christina, Lipljan)
* Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Company (Camp Ville, Lipljan)
* Members of Multinational Military Police Element (Camp Victoria, Ajvalija)
* Members of KFOR HQ (Camp Film City, Pristina)
* Liaison and Monitoring Teams

Main Equipment:

* SISU XA – 180 Armoured Personnel Carrier
* SISU XA – 180 APC Ambulances
* Heavy Engineers Vehicles and coaches

In theatre since: 25 August 1999

Originally posted by kangjia57
Guerilla warfare/insurgency of Muslims will Crush the Serbs and their puppets. The US will just have to send a few hi-tech weapons to them with a few fighters from Arab countries.

Do you know that 1999 when NATO planes bombarded Yugoslavia there were several offensives by Albanians and Mujahedins from Albania who tried to break border between Serbia and Albania [Prokletije Mountain]? UCK terrorists and Mujahedins where de facto NATO infantry in those offensives and they were crushed.

Don't be surprised to see a Union of Russia and Serbia coming to a planet near you.

Russia was incapable of doing anything when Bill Clinton launched into the Balkans. Today is an entirely different story, and it seems like the Russians are gearing up to settle a few scores ... like Serbia.

Originally posted by kangjia57
Guerilla warfare/insurgency of Muslims will Crush the Serbs and their puppets.

Well they weren't able to crush the Serbs in the 90's, even with the help they were getting from the Middle East. In fact the KLA (AKA the Kosovo Insurgency Thugs) was nothing like the separatist forces in say - Chechnya - in terms of success. They were weak, disorganized, and behaved like thugs - for the lack of a better term - pathetic. Sure they could attack civilians - some major bravery there - before Milosevic decided to intervene. But when the Serbian army came to clean up the province, the KLA were decimated in 1998. No insurgency, no matter how well funded and sponsored, is undefeatable. Sure you have to use some dirty tactics to root the bastards out and play some clever propaganda, but insurgents are usually the ones to innitiate a "dirty war". Too bad many civilians on both sides pay the price for these degenerated gangsters who think they are some sort of freedom fighters.

And who are Serbian puppets? Kosovo is part of Serbia, therefore there are no Serbian puppets there, just Serbian citizens.

Originally posted by kangjia57
The US will just have to send a few hi-tech weapons to them with a few fighters from Arab countries.

Oh I am sure U.S. wants to do just that. Arm a bunch of gangsters with hi-tech weapons, which will no doubt find their way into the ranks of Hezbolah and Al-Quida within months. Genious. While I do not doubt the U.S. is capable of doing something as idiotic as this, I think the lessons from Afganistan and Taliban are still fresh in everyone's mind.

Originally posted by kangjia57
Russia uses Iran,hezbullah,Iraq,Afghanistan to bring US/Israel down.

I seriously doubt that Iran or Hezbolah are bringing anyone down anytime soon. For the time being they are glad they are still in existance, especially Hezbolah - which Israel could have obliterated in weeks if allowed to do so by the international community. Hezbolah is but a pawn, and Iran is but a way of creating contention. Nobody seriously thinks these are the glorious weapons that could destroy the West.

Originally posted by kangjia57
US/Israel use Chechnya,Kosovo,Afghanistan to bring Russia down.

Again neither of these is a major threat to Russia. Chechnya was somewhat sponsored by the West, but the separatists have been largely destroyed, and now amount to nothing more than a sorry bunch of bandits. Afganistan ceased being of any priority to Russia about the time that Soviet Unions ceased to exist. And Israel has nothing whatsoever to do with any of these three conflicts.

[edit on 27-1-2008 by maloy]

Originally posted by northwolf
Problem is that troops down there (from all nations) have a standing order to protect civilians.

From what I heard the troops down there don't really know what the hell the are doing there. They are there so politicians in their home countries can say they are doing something to further the ubiquitous world peace. I had a chance to speak with some soldiers, alas not from Finland, who got back from there - and they do not believe they are helping anyone. No longer do they know who they are protecting from whom - Serbs from Albanians or Albanians from Serbs. Ultimately if ethnical cleansing starts again, both sides will find ways around the KFOR, while KFOR won't even give out a yawn.

Originally posted by northwolf
I have faith that at least some contigents would stand behind that order, unless ordered to stand down.

And who are they gonna face to to uphold that moral duty? Serbs? Albanians? Are they going to choose sides again based on some politician's bull****, and alow a filtered genocide, where only one side gets to play? I think KFOR is not there to protect civilians - it didn't give any indication that it is anyway. It is there to prevent the Serbs from putting up a fight when U.S. comes with big scissors to cut up the nation.

Originally posted by northwolf
But a politician that gives an order to allow a genocide to happen is a ex-politician in the western Europe.

Unless that politician happens to have access to some brilliant PR (read propaganda) sympathizers in the media.

Originally posted by northwolf
It's better to allow troops to decide...

Perhaps, but KFOR is not exactly made up of field officers who are given an innitiative to trust their instincts. KFOR is all politics, and whether soldiers want to fight or not, they are controlled by politicians and by NATO commanders. Remember American withdrawal from Lebanon and Somalia? That is how it works.

Originally posted by northwolf
but would the Serbs attack KFOR directly if they blocked their movement

The Serbs are not interested in attacking KFOR - after all there are alot of Serbian sympathizers there. I am sure the Serbs can find a way around KFOR. The problem will likely not be Serbs at all, but Albanians. What will happen when new Kosovo Albanian Army (ex-KLA terrorists) will enter Serb towns? Are the Finns going to stop the Albanians? Are they going to protect the Serbs? Are the Finns going to monitor what will happen? I am not convinced.

Originally posted by northwolf
Unless ofcourse Russia blocks nato.

That is the wild card. For all we know there may already be contingency plans between Serbia and Russia for when Kosovo declares independence. Putin's administration might use this as its last chance to show their power and increase solidarity among Russians before the election. Or Putin may put moral convictions and nationalist priorities aside, and focus on economy and readying the country for Medvedev's more economic-focused reforms.

[edit on 27-1-2008 by maloy]

Last time when Albanians went hunting for Serbs a few years ago, there were know Serbs killed, nor churches burned in Finnish sector as majority of KLA (UCK?) leaders in that area were already indetified and taken into "protection" immediately when the troubles started... so it's possible to protect both sides at least to some degree.

But lets hope that we don't have to witness any fighting or astrosities in Kosovo, even if Kajinga here wants a genocide.

Vojvoda, I'm not militant about our forces there, but as i said i know some of the men down there. And i wouldn't bet on them to stay out of a ugly situation, even if ordered to... if they see that they can protect some "innocents" (btw, same guys say that they prefer working with Serbs in CIMIC ops, as it's easier to get to the same "wavelength" with them.)