World Markets Plunge - DJIA Futures Down Nearly 500 Points

reply to post by theebdk

I hate to say this but reading a book isn't gonna help
with investing in a failing economy or a failing dollar.

If you're investing in the market right now. I'd say .....
RUNNNNN !!!! while you still got legs

reply to post by SimonSays


Interesting change of events my Friend, I wonder also if we may become more tolerant to communism, we are already thanks to corporate America, but will we be more tolerant to Islamic extremist.

I think that US will change our mighty Army into a private mercenary force that obviously will have not problem been pay for when the need arises to protect our wealthy investors in the world.

I guess the term national security will be taking a new and improved meaning for now on.

reply to post by marg6043


Sorry no..this is a cyclical mild economic recession that has been predicted since as far back as 2005. As happens EVERY TIME, people will freak out and cash out, at huge losses. Then they will buy back in, at high prices. This happens without fail. That is because the average "joe" small time investor can't time the market, and trying to time the market results in you losing money over the long term.

There is nothing sinister going on here, except that the federal government is too busy pandering by offering worthless economic packages (when they should not be interfering at all) to get votes rather than staying out and let the cycle do its thing. That's not sinister though....that's just the federal government playing politics - as it always does.

The only people who should bother timing the markets are people who devote their lives to doing it - and even then, they lose often. Any amateur investor who plays into the media hype during these periods will find over their life time - they lose big. If your diversified right now, your fine. If your not, big mistake. Get diversified. But running into cash/gold/oil does not equal "diversified." Some of those things, yes, those things only just ensure you a loss over the long term.

I have a little bit of money in a retirement account that is aggressively invested. I'll lose $2,000-$3,000 tomorrow. I *could* pull out, sure, and take a noticeable loss. And then I'd have to buy back in at a higher level. The chances of me being able to pinpoint the bottom of a recession - as with all amateurs - is about 0. While I may get lucky, I'll most likely lose by trying. So I'm leaving it in there - its got 40 years to grow.



[edit on 21-1-2008 by LightinDarkness]

reply to post by LightinDarkness


Well if is a cycle, I will tell you that alreaady somebody else is dipping into the fall out and cheap sell out.

Look who's bailing out Wall Street

money.cnn.com...

If the fall out was in the hands of wealthy American investors we will say, what happens in American stays in America. but that is no so.

That is where the dangers comes.

reply to post by marg6043


This is a global economy, what happens here impacts other countries. But that's OK - because when it goes back up - so will the rest of the world. It is unsurprising that foreign investors see this as a buying opportunity. Any country with investment capabilities that doesn't take advantage of a cyclical recession will be slapping themselves later. You think this didn't happen in the 1980s recession?

Originally posted by marg6043
If the fall out was in the hands of wealthy American investors we will say, what happens in American stays in America. but that is no so.

That is where the dangers comes.

Marge you are dead on and a star
since we see eye to eye on this I have added you to my friends list
Hope that's ok ??

Headlines:
"America's Dirty Laundry for sale to world's highest bidder"

It isn't bad enough that we got "For Sale" signs on our lawns
but now we got them on the White House lawn. And to tell ya
the truth, that is a sad day in American History.

reply to post by SimonSays


Please re-think your statement. Social Security is a pyramid scheme that will eventually fail. Were you aware that the money that you invest in social security, and it is an investment, returns about 2% per year. Which is less than inflation so you are losing money every year. I do not recall how that 2% was calculated. A privatized social security would allow you to invest in money market funds, bonds, stocks, commodities, etc. Which over time all return more than inflation, except money market funds. Social security is a losing offering.

reply to post by SimonSays


America has already been put up for sale to the highest bidder:

Overseas Investors buy Aggressively in US

Last May, a Saudi Arabian conglomerate bought a Massachusetts plastics maker. In November, a French company established a new factory in Adrian, Mich., adding 189 automotive jobs to an area accustomed to layoffs. In December, a British company bought a New Jersey maker of cough syrup.

For much of the world, the United States is now on sale at discount prices.

I completely forgot about this article and it is of perfect relevance to today's discussion topic.

I hope you actually read it folks, its good stuff.

You all have me dizzy j/k

I don't know if someone updated what was happening in the Asian market but it isn't looking too good:

Asian markets continue plunge

HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- Japan's Nikkei index plunged below 13,000 for the first time in more than two years Tuesday as global markets tumbled on fears that a U.S. economic slowdown will lead to a global recession.

After dropping more than 3 percent on Monday, the Nikkei fell nearly 5 percent on opening Tuesday. Across the Korea Strait in South Korea, Seoul's KRX 100 index was down about 4 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which fell 5.5 percent on Monday -- its largest percentage drop since the September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States -- fell another 5 percent in opening trading on Tuesday.

Isn't this going to put unbearable pressure on the US markets when they finally open tomorrow?

reply to post by LightinDarkness


Is a big difference the 1980s was not as bad as it is today, Americas industries were still the wealth builders of the middle class and the bread and butter of the nation.

Now is no base wealth builders in this nation unless you think Wal-mart is one of them.

In the last 20 years we have gone from a nation of producers to a nation of consumers on credit.

In the last 15 years we have gone from job makers to outsourcing our wealth builder base.

In the last 7 years we have grown into an outrageous deficit a nation indebted and dependent on foreign money to be able to finance our wars.

Is a different world out there and the nature of the cycle will be greatly influenced by who foreign nations are buying now a piece of America.

Is more than just a market woe what is going on right now.

[edit on 21-1-2008 by marg6043]

reply to post by marg6043


The 1980s wasn't as bad as today? I hope your kidding. Just show me one measure of how that is. For example - were gas prices to be adjusted to 1980s oil crises levels right now and inflation, wed be paying $20 dollar a gallon instead of $3. The 1980s was so much worse, but of course everyone likes to always think theyre in the next "economic doomsday." If you want to assert that this is in any way worse than black tuesday, please give one piece of data for that. A piece of data where you examine an indicator in the "worst" time possible in the 1980s, and then inflation adjust it for today.

In the last 20 years we have gone from a nation of manufacturing to a nation of services and technology.

In the last 15 years we have gone from outsourcing to focusing economic development on sustainable industry that focuses on innovation instead of mass production.

In the last 7 years the deficit pattern has continued, and in the last 7 years the deficit has not grown out of proportion with any other period. Yes its large, and I wish it wasn't, but its how government has always worked.

Its a cyclical recession. And while I realize everyone loves to think its economic doom and gloom (doom and gloom is much more exciting than boring old good times), it's not going to be the disaster you hope for. But - no worries - in about 15 years it'll be time for everyone to freak out again.

People just love the excitement that comes with doom and gloom.

reply to post by SimonSays


Most of the invesstment services (not books) told people to go to cash weeks if not months ago. I already ran and now I am relaxing on the sideline. May be a while before I get back in but I will let the market tell me when it is time.

Originally posted by LightinDarkness
You think this didn't happen in the 1980s recession?

during the 1980's recession, I worked a full-time job
for a whopping $150.00 a week salary (for a college grad).
That was one of the lowest paying jobs I had ever had.

Funny thing is my boss was Israeli and shipped internationally.
He was also former Mossad and so was his sister the vice president
of his company. My boss and his sister was here on work visas
and had to report back to Israel every 12 months else lose their
Israeli citizenship. But those were the people I worked for
during the 80's recession. Jobs were scarce so I had little
choice at that time.

Funny how lil things like a recession triggers the memory.

reply to post by LightinDarkness

speaking of black tuesday

just wait til tomorrow and you'll see another one

reply to post by LightinDarkness

The 1980s wasn't as bad as today? I hope your kidding. Just show me one measure of how that is. For example - were gas prices to be adjusted to 1980s oil crises levels right now and inflation, wed be paying $20 dollar a gallon instead of $3.

I could be wrong but I remember just a couple of years ago when the gas prices started to rise, they did a comparison and said that even if the price went to 2.50gal national average it would be less than the adjusted for inflation price paid during the shortage of the mid 70's which was around 2.80gal.

How did that figure jump to $20.00 gal adjusted price, please point me in the right direction.


I did find this Cato study from 2006 which has the ppgal around 4.30 back in the early 80's, still no where near 20 a gal.

Gasoline Prices in Perspective

Now let's look at 1981, the year Ronald Reagan took office. Gasoline sold for $1.38 that year, the equivalent of $2.74 in today's currency. Adjusting for the change in disposable per capita income, prices would have to be $4.30 today to have an equivalent impact.

ed:add article on comparison of gas prices.


[edit on 1/21/2008 by JacKatMtn]

Originally posted by JacKatMtn
Isn't this going to put unbearable pressure on the US markets when they finally open tomorrow?

yes it is
and I'm afraid the US won't be able to hold up the
weight put on it's shoulders.

I'm expecting no less than another 500 point drop tomorrow
and I'm expecting a bottom of around 7.000-8,000 by mid march.
but that is just pure speculation on my part. I think the
decline will be gradual at first cuz folks will try to hold on
claiming there's no recession.

But as history has shown, you can only hold on to the
end of the rope for a while before you fall.

"It's like a funeral in here,"
"No one knows what's going to happen tonight in New York. It's like we've gone blind, you don't know what's coming.
"Until we see New York, all we can do is sell,"

Hmmm typical ATS conspiracy madness?

ANSWER FOUND HERE

well dow futures have gone up from low 500's to low 430's for now.

Lots of people getting into cash.

The biggest difference between today and the 80's my friends is that debt as a percentage of GDP is much higher And our jobs are much heavier concentrated into service sector (which is often dependant on discretionary (extra income) and available credit.

Credit is being less and less available and will get much worse as banks lose capital and ability to lend

in 2001 it was tech stocks, not banks who took the brunt. thus the recession was not as wide spread, today we are talking about Banks getting pounded along with housing values falling steadily, throw in the cost of living (all insurance's, food, energy, etc) growing and consumers are getting squeezed. Now tack on the fact that the very people who insure bonds are about to likely become insolvent. AMBAC and MBIA? The markets are panicked and the panic spreads thanks to globilization. Me think things could get a lot worse than they were in the 80's.

costs of living are getting higher and as the consumer mentality becomes more defensive , retailers will get hammered , so will resteraunts, spa's , nail salons, as consumer psychlogy changes from spend-spend-spend to crap-save-oh sh%t, and a cycle of unemployment and less consumer spending will result, unless of course the gov't does some kind of Major Bailout (cutting rates aren't gonna cut it) and then we will still see a recession, instead of a VERY STEEP recession, or potentially worse, but that is not yet predicatable, but indeed a possibility .

[edit on 21-1-2008 by cpdaman]

FYI: I just noticed yesterday that I have a channel called CNBCWorld,

Direct TV CH 357 which covers the globals, and right now a sI type the DJIA futures are -466 NASDAQ -63.50 S&P -54.90

I am just posting in case you might be interested.

reply to post by JacKatMtn


In all this talk of oil and gold I made a big slip and started inserting the word gas and gas prices, the more adequate proporational price would be oil. Of course, gold is another example.

My point is simply that this happens every 15 years or so, and people always love to freak out. For the amateur investor with a time horizon of greater than 5 years, running will only guarantee that you LOSE. If your about to retire or a pro, it's a different matter. But...as always...the sheep will withdraw money like mad and run around like it's the end of the world. Its literally so predictable its pathetic. You can even see it in this thread - people are going around starring any post that endorses the gloom and doom. Its generally a good idea to do the opposite of the sheep, and that remains true in this case.

The few non-sheep tomorrow with the capital to invest will be making money hand over fist as the amateur panic ensues.

Sure, they'll pull out tomorrow and not lose as much as I will in the short term, but I'll be up hundreds of thousands of dollars over all the sheep tomorrow when it comes time to retire

[edit on 21-1-2008 by LightinDarkness]