World Markets Plunge - DJIA Futures Down Nearly 500 Points

A depression differs from a recession in duration and/or Depth of decline

and after depression we have economic collapse

en.wikipedia.org...

Sidney J. Harris distinguished terms this way: "a recession is when your neighbor loses his job; a depression is when you lose your job."

difficult to compare the problems today with any time period since their are credit instruments failing today that have never been around before.

what we do know is the formula's for these exotic instruments are proving to be inaccurate especially because people appear to be defaultng on their mortgage payments more than/and before credit cards (which historically was the opposite) and is one reason why losses may be bigger than was anticipated (at least according to formula)

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...

also we do have the world reserve currency today and other country's do need us more than they did in the 20's.

we also lack a manufacturing sector that we had in earlier decades of economic troubles so we are vulnerable IMO to a consumer spending decline- increasing unemployment spiral that is re-inforcing






[edit on 5-2-2008 by cpdaman]

Originally posted by Nailer
DIJA down 309. pts as of 5 ,minutes ago..
.

and then it closed at -370.03

which means that the astute investor sees many of the DOW 30
selling off .....


i've read that the DOW might sell of to about 8,000
but i only see a drop to 10,500 or there-abouts

(keep in mind that i forecasted a 8,500 bottom during the last
dot.com bubble year beforehand---& thats when i scarfed up on
12 Dividend-Reinvestment Plans)
You all do the same this time around !!!


bottpm lime ==== the USA has a fantastic military & super-power
status with Nukes.... to 'back-up' the power plays on
the world economic stage/theatre

reply to post by St Udio


If you look at the charts, we are heading for a major sell off.

We've had periods of lows and highs, each time hitting a fresh low. I'd agree about the 10,500 mark. The likely hood we will see a few more days of a sell off, then a rally and back to a sell off again.

The markets have not priced in a recession (yet)

reply to post by infinite


We should thank the fed for boosting the markets everytimes they lowe the rates.

I heard in the news that this year we may see rates to go as low as 2.00 before the mess is over.

Now what we as consumer need to be doing forcing the banks to pass this rates to us.

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by infinite

 

We should thank the fed for boosting the markets everytimes they lowe the rates.

I heard in the news that this year we may see rates to go as low as 2.00 before the mess is over.

Now what we as consumer need to be doing forcing the banks to pass this rates to us.

Yes but every time the feds lower the rates the value of the Dollar drops causing you to pay more for goods and services.

[edit on 5-2-2008 by marg6043]

[edit on 5-2-2008 by marg6043]

reply to post by Nailer


Yes that is the down side of the deal, but as you can see we as a nation can not build wealth anymore as our manufacturing base is gone outsourced.

Our own government doesn't even want to address the issue here, but thinks that giving stimulus packages to American people will boost the numbers.

No jobs, no manufacturing, a trillion dollar deficit, a trillion dollar a year war and a debt up to our necks with foreign nations is bound to kill our nation, our economy and the once mighty dollar.

Sometimes we most wonder if this is the decirable outcome after all. . .

Ive said it once Ill say it again the Fed just gave a crack whore a little crack to put it in perspective. Now that that high is gone reality comes back into play and reality is no fun right now. Things have to change. We need to fix our monetary policy first off. I like Paul's ideas. We need our tax system fixed. I happen to like Huckabee's ideas there. Healthcare well I think Obama's is probably the best although not perfect. The job outsourcing issues..well any democrat especially Obama is wanting to fix that issue. Energy issues I like hillarys idea of pulling subsides from big oil and using it for research on new energy. With the profits big oil is pulling in they shouldnt need subsides. Tough election I dont know who to vote for because I like ideas by them all.

I apologize for the triple post but my computer just went blank and I guess that every time I tried to refresh he page it just kept on posting.

Crazy thing.

Originally posted by St Udio

bottpm lime ==== the USA has a fantastic military & super-power
status with Nukes.... to 'back-up' the power plays on
the world economic stage/theatre

that didn't stop the USSR from going under.

IMO Putin jailing khodorkovsky saved Russia from another even further drop in standard of living, because (good for russia/bad for u.s.a unfortunately) Khodorkovsky was ready to sell the oil which he privatized to exxon before he was sent up the river.

Now oil is Russia's Strength.

Anyway back to USA .

A fed survey of lenders came out showing that while the fed is loosening monetary policy the lenders are tightening strongly.

Japan is down about 5% tonite.

The amount of credit is evaporating faster than the printing presses can be run. And even the banks that are getting the capital are not lending it, they are hoarding it because their solvency may depend on it, when/if bond insurer's get downgraded. The only agency able to bailout the monolines is the Gov't.




[edit on 5-2-2008 by cpdaman]

reply to post by cpdaman


The markets are almost back to where this thread began, with the FED meeting now months away is there anything left to prop it up?

It really doesn't look to good, where's the bottom? 1000 pts lower DOW, 2000?

You are correct with the banks hoarding the money, that is a travesty IMO. It is great to have you and the other members chime in and actually care about what is happening.

Most people are blind and waiting for a stimulus check in May.

posted by traderonwallst
A lot goes on behind the scene s you don;t know about. I knew that morning the FED was making the move. No need to tell how, but I knew.

Forgive me for asking, but was it your peers at the 'meeting' that were the behind the scenes thing you're alluding to in your latest post? Because your earlier post makes it sound like you were surprised by the 75 bps cut. Whereas your last post sounds like you had insider info.

[edit on 4-2-2008 by HimWhoHathAnEar]

No no no......Just been around to long. Everything was calling for and the time was right. Sorry if I worded it wrong. When I say I knew...I mean.....Gut feeling....the right time to do it....can act without question. Obvious.

No inside people at the FED. If that was the case i would be retired somewhere in the Caribean.

i don't think gold going much higher is any gaurantee and i think ole jim may be a bit biased, but he is very intelligent and has a good handle on ton's of information, but the potential is there. I read him, Mish Shedlock, anything by Michael Hudson and a few others.

Political decisons around the globe and close to home will determine wether the economy takes the inflationary or deflationary course.

[edit on 5-2-2008 by cpdaman]

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by Nailer

 

Yes that is the down side of the deal, but as you can see we as a nation can not build wealth anymore as our manufacturing base is gone outsourced.

Our own government doesn't even want to address the issue here, but thinks that giving stimulus packages to American people will boost the numbers.

No jobs, no manufacturing, a trillion dollar deficit, a trillion dollar a year war and a debt up to our necks with foreign nations is bound to kill our nation, our economy and the once mighty dollar.

Sometimes we most wonder if this is the decirable outcome after all. . .

Yes true, the Noose tightens a little more everyday slowly strangling the USA .

What Happened in the Last Recession and Bear Market?

Like most Americans here in the United States of Amnesia you may have already forgotten, but the last bear market and official recession we had was in the Y2K and stock bubble collapse of 2000-2003.....

As you can see, gold was a stellar performer as the dollar was devalued to combat the downturn, even though we saw a brief whiff of deflation in M1 during this period, although most probably do not remember the big deflation scare. Full Text

The current inflation/deflation debate sounds familiar (recovery of 2003). The deflationists were wrong then...I believe they will prove wrong again. I have a perverted faith in world central banks

One title: Inflation vs Deflation - 2003...comes-up with 100,000 entries.

I'm not on board with Shedlock...only read him when I happen across tid-bits. I wonder if he still feels like he did back in 2006 when he wrote: How Will Deflation Play Out?

"Gold is a likely winner in this mess. Gold and money in general are historically trash in disinflation and hoarded in deflation." - Mish

Sinclair receives a-lot of flack from the anti-Gold crowd, and with good reason. If he seems biased, well, he's a consumate Gold trader. Doesn't call intermediary tops & bottoms, but a quick review of his archives will show that his mid - long term trend analysis has been impeccable. Even Harry Schultz temporarily balked, and missed the move to $800

Ideally, it's a long term trade requiring full commitment to fundamentals. If sudden prices moves are a problem, I don't recommend Gold at this stage. Maybe an ETF...but only as trading vehicle.

the central bankers are in over their heads in this financial crisis. it is out of their hands. they can influence currency exchange rates and thus indirectly add pressure to country's w/ dollar pegs though.

government intervention (and the level of which) will determine wether we have deflation or not.

hyperinflation of the dollar would require a military and political break from the U.S. from partners in trade.

and yes shedlock still thinks deflation will play out the same way he outlined in 2006 (in a future forecast).

i see assets falling and inflation going toward keeping our banking system solvent in the near term (if a political and military break from the u.s takes place) then hyperinflation becomes possible for the gov't. also i think stimulus packages will be issued multiple times toward consumer's (to keep them from revolting) and in order to keep unemployment and consumer spending out of a death spiral as housing values plummet.

IMO i do not see a severe military or political break from the dollar system, oil shieks are getting billions of dollar, whose purshasing power is steadying at least in respect to other fiat, and china needs to finance our consumption for their employment and GDP growth, at least for a while.

[edit on 7-2-2008 by cpdaman]

Well this is the result of banks corrupted way to create wealth from thin air.

As I was getting educated by how the bond insurance will affect the retirement accounts of many baby boomers, (my husband one of them) it makes me realized that we may be in the biggest scandal (after enron) facing our economy.

We need to keep an eye on the next casualty of the mortgage crash that till have not show its ugly head completely, credit is now the issue, but still our friend in the bond business has not told the entire story yet.

Well it seems that today will be another sour day in the markets, so the Dow is expected to plunge again, do to the unemployment weekly reports, bad news in the credit markets and also bond insurance again showing his ugly head.