World Markets Plunge - DJIA Futures Down Nearly 500 Points

Well so far this is interesting, my husband just lost 4 thousand dollars in his investments this month.

I guess it was a reason why he didn't want to look into it until he had not other choice.

Well, I see it as a big lost, but for him he feels that he will recuperate at the end because is in his long term investments.

I guess we can take that to the taxes.

Now I see how this market trend can affect regular people like us.

Sorry to hear about your losses Marg While the percentages favor holding long positions in a bull market...entering the early stages of a bear (long) requires a titanium nervous system, and the stomach for unrelenting volatility & associated loss. The technicals show strong downside potential moving forward 08. If currently sidelined, this is an excellent opportunity to gather information, define financial goals, and develop a strategy with the help of a reputable investment advisor. In my opinion, the best buying opportunities lie ahead.

reply to post by OBE1


You hit that right on the nose. That is why I keep my options for 3 months at least and day trade futures. The market is volitile right now to make any money as far as swing type trades. Hold on for the next 3 to 6 months you will get your money back.

Thanks my friends, I guess my husband doesn't worry much about it because is his long term investments.

But he wanted to make me feel better so he said that he will look into maybe making some changes.

So I am going to trust him.

reply to post by marg6043


Thanks for you kind words. Most people think I am the enemy in here because of what I do. Only within the last 3 weeks have I become "non-bearish". I made a lot of money shorting stocks since last MAY and still am short a few that I do not think have finished going down. I am currently long only 8 stocks and 4 of them are financials. I got long the Friday before that big sell off and doubled my positions that tuesday on the morning when we gapped way down. The only stock I will give you is C - Citigroup. Picking up shares under $25 is insane if you ask me. I am still not a BULL yet, but yes...I am optimistic. The markets held my targets (except for the day thanks to that idiot in France). If we break below 1325 again on the S&P, I will probably exit my positions and maybe pick up a few shorts. The next target (my target) ont he S&P would be 1260 and not a good sign of things going forward. If we can stay above 1380 for a few day here I might pick up some more longs. We will begin to see a few more bargain mergers as some stocks have just gotten too low. Unfortunately some of these acquisiton will be foreign companies. Personally if I am long that company getting bought I don;t care who buys it, its a nice profit.

digging thru the archives i find a few gems which may be pertinent to the current situation in which the fed is trying to pre-emptively "kick start "markets" as many would be led to believe by speculators to prevent deleveraging of structured credit vehicles ( a deflationary situation) in the face of a about to be rapidly falling house values and more blood. or as explained by some financial journalists to "boost the economy" sure. any how here is a link to a analyst who seems to think he can read between the lines.

www.financialsense.com...

in a deflation (but not in an inflation) bond prices tend to be higher, and interest rates lower, than justified by economic conditions. This is what baffles the Bond King, and this is the “conundrum” of King Al. Be that as it may, this effect ought to be taken into account in reading deflationary signals, or in searching for inflationary signals

ok the above was from 05 from Antal Fekete who is looking into his crystal ball wants to show people what to look for to identify various situations and the signals for coming deflation and inflation which can be read in the bond market which are sometimes counter-intuitive and he continues below

he also states that in deflations banks make plenty of money and recapatilize their portfolio's thru bond's (where speculators ) are a force to be reckoned with. he states as fed lowers rates speculators will often ditch commodity's or stock's for bonds and use their knowledge of the fed's future moves (buying treasury bonds) and jump in with them and bid prices up, often at the expense of some commodity's although the latter can rise but will not provide the profits that the bond speculators reap and that most financial analysts don't get this.

In the first case bond prices are high and rising, as they would be in deflation. If there was no bias, then speculators would resist the rise and take profit in selling the bonds. But bias is introduced by the central bank’s buying of bonds in an effort to combat deflation. Therefore speculators will let their profits ride. What is more, they will pyramid. Rather than opposing the central bank, they will join its buying spree with all what they have and finance their bond pyramiding through liquidating their holdings of commodities, causing prices to fall

This man also likes R. Paul for pres because he think's it will be important to jump start the monetary system with some gold or silver backing like R.P proposes, before the Chinese (who supposedly are sitting on a mountain of silver decide to do) or russians who he thinks are hoarding gold may attempt out of what FEkete thinks will be the ashes of the dollar if we don't act to back it by something before other's may. The criticism i have of this is that Paul doesn't stand a chance to cut the FED bank out of the picture. The Fed may dare to go back to a gold or silver standard but they will not allow someone to cut them out of the loop and lending money to govt's that aint gonna happen. and paul being a strict constitutionalist will push for this. China and Russia i can't speak for and would require some research but the main point of this post is Fekete's point that bonds play a dominating role and their speculators have a favored position due to the the way the fed operates. Fekete continues with

It is unrealistic to assume, as most financial journalists do, that speculators don’t take advantage of profitable opportunities in the bond market inadvertently created by central bank intervention. Actually they do, and have done so since the 1930's when the Fed first started using what has come to be known as open market operations, in line with Keynes’ contra-cyclical monetary policy prescriptions. It is not recognized in the existing economic literature that bullish bond speculation played a big role in prolonging and deepening the Great Depression. Unfortunately, the deficient understanding of the Great Depression will result in a repetition of the mistakes and may be instrumental in bringing about a Second Great Depression, worse even than the first

[edit on 3-2-2008 by cpdaman]

reply to post by traderonwallst


You work on wall st and think that single SocGen trader is to blame for what happened over there? lol.

Citi won't exist in a year, wouldn't touch that stock with Bea Arthur's %$#@

[edit on 3-2-2008 by CyberSEAL]

reply to post by CyberSEAL


No cyber...what that rogue trader did was cause a situation. The situation is what caused the 1 day panic around the world because SoGen panicked and created a lot of problems. A lot went into that day and a lot of reactions came out of it. The 75 bps move by the FED that day was strictly in reaction to the markets. If that sell off around the world did not happen that Monday while our markets were closed the FED would not have acted that day. A lot goes on behind the scene s you don;t know about. I knew that morning the FED was making the move. No need to tell how, but I knew. CITI is here to stay buddy. People who make comments like that.....really should not be posting here. And if you do insist on making asinine statements, please explain your thought process. I could use a good laugh or two tomorrow.

GIANTS WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For full disclosure I am long C at just under $25 and then more at $26.25. Backed up the truck for that steal. I am still short one of the bond holders, but short at above $60. I already covered the other one.

Anything else you want to know???

Why did Citi need the cash infusion from Dubai so badly? Didn't they get it at something like 8%? Couldn't they have borrowed it cheaper from another bank in the system or directly from the Fed at the Discount window at a rate much cheaper than what they got from Dubai? I don't trust that one bit. I do believe there are going to be once in a lifetime deals on some financials in the near future but I'm not willing to hop back in just yet. I want to see what happens with the Feb CP rollover before I buy into any financials. I also may wait till the next round of ARM resets and see what happens there before buying any finacials even for the short term.

No major public homebuilders BK yet, no major banks publicly insolvent yet, investigations started but no indictments yet, still many thousands if not millions of '06 vintage ARMS about to hit the first reset, the monolines requiring banks in Europe and US for capital infusions to retain thier credit ratings, and lets not forget the ratings agencies and thier complicity in the current crisis. I'm not willing to make any long term investments in financials just yet.

I hope that works out for ya trader. I really do but don't banks historically drop down to around 70% book value before a bottom is in during financial crises like these? If I had to invest in a bank right now i'd find one that kept pretty much traditional underwritting standards and has no LVL 3 assets on there balance sheet.

There has been talk of a CITI breakup as recently as November 5th when they sent Prince packing. So it's not out of the question. As far as that poor scapegoat at SocGen, you just have to feel sorry for the guy. There is no way that a 'Junior' trader could have done that much damage. To believe otherwise is truly naive and that's just what the Bankers count on.

U.S. government prosecutors are investigating whether Swiss banking giant UBS misled investors by reporting inflated prices of mortgage-backed securities it held despite knowing those valuations had eroded, the Wall Street Journal said Saturday.

www.cnbc.com...

Wonder if they can find some poor 'Junior' lacky at UBS to burn at the stake?

Edit to Ask:

posted by traderonwallst
We discussed the markets that day and the inherent risk to the economy. We all agreed that immediate action would be taken. I figured 50 bps so they cut another 50 bps at the actual meeting. The 75 bps was a surprise.

posted by traderonwallst
A lot goes on behind the scene s you don;t know about. I knew that morning the FED was making the move. No need to tell how, but I knew.

Forgive me for asking, but was it your peers at the 'meeting' that were the behind the scenes thing you're alluding to in your latest post? Because your earlier post makes it sound like you were surprised by the 75 bps cut. Whereas your last post sounds like you had insider info.

[edit on 4-2-2008 by HimWhoHathAnEar]

reply to post by traderonwallst



We won!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I lost my voice from so much screaming

Anyway back to the subject, yes all the major financial institution has been receiving infusion from various nations, but greatly from Arab Nations.

They have been doing this since early last year, so the problem has been there but as usual the consumer is the last to find out.

The MBIA is to receive some kind of bail out this week in an effort to keep their ratings.

If this doesn't happen we may see another plunge.

AntiSpin

Jim Willie audio interview posted today. A passionate expat speaks-out on the US banking system (Mussolini fascist business model)...the credit crisis...Citigroup's recent purchase of Panamanian bank; Grupo Cuscatlan...precious metals...more

reply to post by OBE1


WOW!
I just listened to that interview OBE1 and I am actually scared.
Willie is yet another who believes we are headed into hell.
I believe him and others like Celente and Schiff.
He actually moved to another country to avoid all the civil unrest that will happen soon.
I just can't do that though.

reply to post by worried08

worried08 - Thanks for taking the time to listen to the interview. Given the creepy circumstances surrounding JW's decision to relocate outside of the US...it's to his credit, and our benefit, that he remains one of the truth-tellers in the spin-ridden...topsy-turvy, now & then that lies ahead.

A note from Jim Willie, re: Costa Rica

* kosmicjack's post today

Markets woke up with a hiccup today

Will he MBIA be pulling down the markets today? as they has no been able to find somebody to bail them out.

Hopefully everything will be fine and is nothing than a hiccup.

reply to post by marg6043


Im glad I jumped out of all my longs yesterday. I think we will be tanking for a few now that the gleam of the fed cuts are out of the system and reality is coming back into the picture. Nice rally while it lasted though.

reply to post by mybigunit


I agree, its sad that we all knew that it was temporarily, because the problem with our markets and our economy run deeper that our government wants us to believe.

Sad really, but actually I welcome more rate cuts due to me waiting patiently for the Right rate to refinance my 7.2 loan on the house.

So I know this is killing the dollar but hey, that is our government's problem.

I am right there with you Marge but I don't see the banks passing on these low rates to the consumer. Banks are loathe to loan to people these days and there just is no incentive for them to lower their rates when they do. I am going to refinance to a 30 year fixed when it reaches 5.2 or lower but the weekly trends lately since the FED dropped its rates has been steadily upwards. I know it takes a month or two to filter to the end user after a rate cut, but with all the trouble in the markets now I don't see 5% rates happening which is really the point where we need to be to spur home purchases in a market this bad. 5.75% and rising is about the best I can find now and those are few and far between.

DIJA down 309. pts as of 5 ,minutes ago.. Sing low the dollar as the feds are going to destroy you more. The recession began last year and we(the feds) are working hard and fast on the Depression.

Originally posted by Nailer
DIJA down 309. pts as of 5 ,minutes ago.. Sing low the dollar as the feds are going to destroy you more. The recession began last year and we(the feds) are working hard and fast on the Depression.

Do you even know what a depression is? America certainly is not heading for one. The factors are much different from 1929.

Depression is just a recession over a long period of time.