World Markets Plunge - DJIA Futures Down Nearly 500 Points

Light in darkness i think dispelling all unfavorable predictions of the "doom and gloom" variety may give some people the peace of mind to dismiss any serious consideration which may challenge their current beliefs that all is well.

but at the same time i know what you are saying about some people seeming to want everything to come crashing down, it can be very aggrevating, but i think many do it out of good intentions, that the system needs to collapse so it has the chance to be put back together in a better way.

[edit on 22-1-2008 by cpdaman]

When is the collapse coming!????!!!!! I was getting excited then as well, hopefully the recent US cut is a panic move and will backfire.

Originally posted by cpdaman
i think many do it out of good intentions, that the system needs to collapse so it has the chance to be put back together in a better way.

Amen. We must start over.

There's too much rampant corruption in every form of government, company, and people themselves.

"Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely."

We don't like to learn from our mistakes. Now its time we do.

"but i think many do it out of good intentions, that the system needs to collapse so it has the chance to be put back together in a better way."

He sees the light and speaks like a god.

Most Assuredly,

the 'guys' with money are -shorting- everything thay can
...because the U.S. market only sunk 128.11 on tuesday------

while the rest of the world markets tanked an average of 5.5%...

the Fed's 3/4% cut was designed for the astute money managers !
-> but not for the (myself included) clods & slobs of stocks/finance....


watch out for the 'falling knife' and don't any of youse guys think to
start buying-in to this temporary pause- thinking they will make a profit.


the USA will get a clear head and 'catch-up' to the rest of the global decline,
probably tomorrow.... [23 jan '08]





[edit on 22-1-2008 by St Udio]

Actually the whole point of the falling knife analogy is that the amateur investor should NOT be trying to time the market and cash out on a mild recession - because you will lose, you don't know when its going to be going back up. Invest whatever normal amount you invest every month, and you'll end up a lot higher over the long term.

Let the sheeple be the idiots who try to time the market. As much as everyone wants a depression, it isn't coming. And by the way, if one were to happen we wouldn't "start over." Your not going to be able to turn capitalism into some socialist utopia now matter how much you want it.

reply to post by cpdaman


On a related note to a completely #ed up system, I just paid the state of Arizona to get my tax returns.

Yes that's right. I paid money to have money come to me. How freaking messed up is that?

There is no possible way humans could come up with a more corrupt system. Even Rome and Babylon must have been a little bit better...

Originally posted by LightinDarkness
Reading some of the posts in this thread is comical. I can almost hear the audible groan that people didn't get the "economic armageddon" they had hoped and prayed for today. Sorry, doomsday prophets, your not going to get it any time soon - at least not from the US economy.

Whenever the stock market doesn't fall by some absurd amount everyone rushes to claim "ITS JUST TEMPORARY!" and "IT WON'T WORK" - yet when it goes down by a large amount, all of a sudden its "OMG OMG OMG ECONOMIC DOOM AND GLOOM DEPRESSION." I feel like some of the people in this thread are foaming at the mouth for a depression (by the way, anyone claiming this is a depression - you can't even begin to understand how wrong you are) and get very upset when it doesn't happen.

Its amazing how much people follow the mass media exactly like they want you to.

Seriously mate, give it a rest. You're starting to sound like Baghdad Bob in all these threads screaming that everything is OK and that we should all just move along and go about life as usual. The truth is that none of us know what is going to happen to this economy. What we as a country are going through right now is unprecedented in our history so why do you feel that you are so much more qualified than anyone else to say that doom and gloom is not in our immediate economic future? We've all heard you 1000x already so you really don't need to keep posting your comments with the same old regurgitated lines over and over which are basically nothing but your own opinion based on no facts. It's starting to make you look like a government shill telling the uneducated masses that everything will be fine.....We've all heard that one before.

Again whatever stimulus package the morons in Washington are going to come with, it will be fast and even before the income tax returns start to be handle in May.

This checks, cards or whatever means will be use to distribute them will create another nightmare like the one they did with the Katrina hand outs.

Then this only to boost GDP numbers from one or two quarters for election purposes insert deception here but they are not to fix te economy in any way because the problem with our economy is deeper and more complicated that our morons politicians in Washington make us believe.

So for those that will be receiving a bail ot check, go and do your patriotic duty and spend, spend and spend even more.

reply to post by Escrotumus


There is a difference between reality and what you want reality to be. Just because you want economic armageddon doesn't mean its going to happen, and your fallacious "analogy" proves it. Your the one sounding like bagdad bob, telling us all that despite all the evidence and proof to the contrary, *you* somehow know whats going on and its completely opposite of what all the evidence says.

No one knows whats ever going to happen exactly, but there is such a thing as making an educated guess. And all data point toward no economic doom and gloom/disaster/depression like people want there to be. All data point toward a recession that has been predicted and advertised since 2005, or depending on who you ask as far back as 2003.

We've all heard you say 1000x over and over that the sky is falling/economic armageddon/doom and gloom, so we don't need you to keep posting your comments with the same old regurgitated lines over and over which are basically nothing but your own opinion based on no facts. It's starting to make you look like a mass media shill telling the uneducated masses that armageddon is coming to get up the hype and emotion.....We've all heard that one before.



[edit on 22-1-2008 by LightinDarkness]

Does anyone believe that the FED can continue to save the markets at the last possible moment like they did in August and today? Shorts got their butt handed to them by Ben in August and mostly only left only "lotto ticket" positions for today. Anyone who didn't take profits from any short position friday was just being pigish, and though pig's deserve to be slaughtered they probably still made money as long as they didn't open the position near close friday.The market was still negative and that 3/4 bp cut couldn't even push the DOW into positive territory. They can only cut so much and the fiscal stimulus that the politicos will be available May/June at the earliest. At this rate we will be at a 0% or negative FFR/Discount rate by the time the helicopters arrive in May.

Personally I'm all in cash and short term treasuries at the moment, but if we get a nice rally on this i'm gonna load up on some long puts for when the next shoe drops. When is the next round of ARM resets? April, May maybe hmmmm.

Those checks are so far off in the future as to not even be viable. It would be June before any of us see them. I for one would be loathe to even cash it for knowing what they would be doing to our childrens' future. Robbing Peter to pay Paul is not a very good solution. Running around telling everyone that this is cyclical and that everything is going to be OK is not a good solution.

I've been through my share of these downturns in the economy and none of the previous ones had any of the perfect storm of ingredients that this situation has. I have watched my house drop 110k in value in the past two years. I have watched as my town has been ransacked by illegal aliens. I've seen gas, natural gas and heating oil go through the roof. Groceries have jumped up 30% in the past 6 months alone. 5 bucks for a gallon of milk??!! Stock markets up 200 one day, down 300 the next, up 300 the next, down 200 the next. The volatility of the economy is written all over the wall for anyone to see.

A war that is costing us trillions and they are sending Americans $800 each to buy a shiny new plasma tv?? Subprime loans in default possibly in the trillions before all is said and done and they are doing this? AMBAC and MBIA both a gnats breath from going under and not a peep about what they plan to do about that. All financed through China or the Middle East who after the 3/4 drop in the interest rate today can't be too happy about what that means to their holdings.

LightinDarkness, you may very well be right or you may very well be wrong about how this plays out, but to act like this is just another cyclical event in a long history of economic mishaps is a bit on the disingenuous side don't you think?

Wouldn't it be great if everyone took those checks and paid off an interest bearing debt with it. If it comes that's what I'm going to do. Maybe get a month ahead on the mortgage so there is a cushion in case I get laid off. What I will not be doing is spending it on anything that I don't need.

LID: And you also come across as very pompous and arrogant which is why I single you out. You don't know any more than anyone else does or you'd be out raking in the millions. Heck, even the real experts have no clue. For every Harvard educated expert you see on TV claiming that this will all blow over, you find another one saying that it's economic Armageddon. None of us knows. We will all hope for the best regardless of this insane position that you seem to have that we all secretly desire doom. I've endured my own bit of economic Armageddon already in the past 2 years with massive home devaluation, outrageous real estate tax increases and foreign invasion so I am not too hip on adding to that.

[edit on 1/22/2008 by Escrotumus]

reply to post by Escrotumus


You seem pompous and arrogant, decrying everyone who disagrees with you as being a "government shill." I suggest you stop acting like you know more than everyone else. Everyone who does have capital right now _is_ raking in millions off the sheeple. I've made very big gains given the small capital I have to invest, but you see I don't feel the need to type out numbers to impress you...because I'm not pompous or arrogant. Again, that people want economic armageddon - which by the way, is not hidden as you see people in this thread openly proclaiming it - does not mean it will happen.

I hope you realize that your situation is not generalizable to the entire population. People always seem to think that just because X bad thing has happened to them, it *must* mean that this is so for the rest of the nation/world/whatever. I've seen property values in my area continue to increase even when the housing bubble burst. I've seen gas, and oil be up near the range of historical highs inflation adjusted, but still far below the cost of any other nation. I've seen gold still be less than 50% of its all time inflation adjusted highs. Stock markets that have always been, and always will be, volatile.

A war that costs us billions, not trillions, with a budget of worthless social programs that makes the war look like a drop in the bucket. If I had it my way we'd end them both: the war, and social programs. But as a part of the federal budget, the iraq war is laughably small. Still a waste of my tax money, but a small waste. Axe the social programs, and the war - but neither is happening.

Comparing this to every other economic cycle is right on - because its the truth. Let see. 1980s. Raging oil prices. Check. Raging gold prices. Check. Falling stock market. Check. Out of control government spending. Check. Media freaking out and amateur investors withdrawing and losing a ton of money instead of not acting like sheeple. Check.

How could this be? Because...it happens every so often. Yep, yet another cyclical recession it is. But I'm sure when it ends naturally in 1-2 years all of a sudden whoever is in power (assuming they are of your opposite political ideology) will be praised for somehow "ending" it.

[edit on 22-1-2008 by LightinDarkness]

The war will cost trillions easily and factoring in the cost of Halliburton and other service based corporations that are sucking on the teat of the taxpayer it is already well over a trillion. I agree with you on cutting social programs. As far as I am concerned, the welfare state needs to end NOW and anyone suckling on the teat needs to be put out on the side of the road picking up trash or painting road lines. There is PLENTY of community cleanup work that needs to be done and the perpetual welfare recipients are perfect candidates as far as I'm concerned.

The subprime and insurance fallout is where the difference is between this recession and the last recessions. The major S&L scandal was nowhere near what this will be when all is said and done. Easily trillions if the full force comes to bear. Most of the ingredients of previous recessions are there, just on a much more massive and corrupt scale.

OK...my take on things

On Friday I closed out the last of my 2007 short positions. It was my best year of trading ever. That said, I got long 6 stocks on the close Friday. 4 of the were financials. I have long been in favor of melt down of the markets. Yes, thats right I favored it. The market needs a cleansing every now and then in order to proceed in a upward trend. People get complacent and stocks do too. Things were too easy for too long. We experienced one of the longest bull markets in history since 2002. Things got way out of control for numerous reasons and I am not getting in to it. Just here to say things are not that bad. Take what I am about to say for what you want as its only my opinion. I traded through the markets of 2000-2001 when I worked on Wall Street and I am old enough to remember 1987. I am gonna take a lot of heat from the NON-Americans here, but again its just my opinion.

This correction has been extremely healthy for the US markets going forward. Although I would have liked the FED to react differently at different times to make it a bit more palatable. But if any of you have read some of my posts I have made since August, I have been calling for a close in the DOW below 12,000 (got it today) and a close of the S&P right around 1325. We closed at 1325.19 on Friday and was why I began to get long the market. I did not expect the meltdown around the world monday and tuesday, but nce that happened, an almost final piece of the puzzle took place. The 75 bps reduction by the FED. Now, I fully expect the ECB and the Bank of England to concede tomorrow and also have some rate cuts. If that happens the markets are done going down. There will be down days, but the US markets are in for a trend change. WHY???

Well here is where I will draw criticism.. Despite what everyone thinks/says our markets are still the strongest markets inthe world. When it comes down to it we also have the strongest economy in the world and the most resilient economy. All that money that flew out of India (-11%), Taiwan....Kuala Lumpur....you name it...where did it go? People ned to stay invested, so it goes to US companies. There was REAL buying today on wall street. not just bottom fishers, but people building positions (myslef included). i doubled down on the investments I made on Friday and on some stocks I was up 10% today alone.This new/old found safe haven will allow more money to come into our markets and will help with liquidity problems. Now, I do not want another rate cut next week, but I am pretty sure we will get it. Probably 50 bps too (way too much). But it will aid investment here. I will be buying more companies and adding to current positions over the next week.

Do not fear. The markets are safe. I know AAPL had bad news after the close, but even that stock down another 10% is probably a good investment. I am not going out and buying real estate right now, but stocks are a good investment at this point I feel. I am not a stock broker, I am not making recommendations, just giving you the jist of what I see out there. I used to be an equity trader years ago, but now I am a risk manager for an international company based here in new york city. being the risk manager is what got me short 40 stocks in June. 38 of them financial and housing related. I am not ashamed of shorting America, sometimes its called for. I am still short a few stocks that I shorted in 2008. I shorted a bunch of solar companies on January 10 and covered 6 of them today. Still short 4 of them. up 23% on the ones I covered. I am also short a few of the Agriculture stocks. About 6% up on them, shorted them 2 days too early and held through a squeeze (agriculture report hurt me). Also short Chinese stocks in 2008. But now building a portfolio of longs. All American companies.

OK people....just my opinion but fire away.

reply to post by Escrotumus

You're starting to sound like Baghdad Bob

Ah, he was a funny fella, wonder what happened to him?

so why do you feel that you are so much more qualified than anyone else to say that doom and gloom is not in our immediate economic future?

Good question..

I personally prefer reading ATS's economic pundits better then some Main Stream Media pundits.. St. Udio, Cpdaman and several others.. they have all, including my self and many others, said that the economy could not hold up with the current conditions.

This was back in June.

Guess what? .. Since 14,000 the DOW has been as low as 11,600 (this morning's open) .... I would say their predictions have been correct 100%, we are in a recession. And when the gov and the Fed said "its all fine" we saw through it, called it as it was and guess what? .. The Fed panics and the Gov is scrambling to get a "stimulus" package to "save" the economy.

Go ATS'ers

And I think you would agree (you may not Light) that Cpdaman, St. Udio and the others know what they are talking about.

marg6043:

Again whatever stimulus package the morons in Washington are going to come with, it will be fast and even before the income tax returns start to be handle in May.

If Republicans get their way, I will never see a "stimulation" .. If the Dems get their way, I probably will, but it will be 150billion spread over 40% MORE of the original plans expectations...

Which means very little stimulation.

So now instead of Bush's 1% stimulation package, it will have to be more (because honestly, is it not the poorer people suffering the most???) ..

So I would say, firmly, NO it will not reach the public in the next 2 months.. the partisan bitching is split on what plan to use, Bush sideing with upper middle class Americans, Dems favoring working class Americans.

Not to mention, with the massive War spending bill and the inflated Budget this year already, do we honestly have the money to hand out over 150 billion dollars?? .. It will be borrowed from the same banks that got us into this mess.

but they are not to fix te economy in any way because the problem with our economy is deeper and more complicated that our morons politicians in Washington make us believe.

From the most recent polls on MSM like CNN and Fox, the vast, and I mean vast, majority of Americans have said they will use the rebates to pay credit cards or put them into savings... not many at all want to go have "fun" with it, as they are hoping you will go buy something pretty.

So for those that will be receiving a bail ot check, go and do your patriotic duty and spend, spend and spend even more.

Mindless and irresponsible spending is the American patriotic duty!!

LIGHT:

There is a difference between reality and what you want reality to be. Just because you want economic armageddon doesn't mean its going to happen

I don't think any one here actually WANTS an economic collapse light, but it would be ignorant to say "all is fine in the world" .. We are into a recession now, and "how big" it will be is yet to be determined, but it is by far not all fine.

This morning Yahoo joined the likes of Bank of America, Country Wide, Myrll Lynch, Sprint, and many others that will be laying off thousands within the next few months.

Yahoo is actually firing off hundreds perhaps thousands by JAN 29th 2008.

We are seeing the largest losses on Wall Street and the most predicted job cuts since the Dot Com bust and 9/11.

jefwane:

Does anyone believe that the FED can continue to save the markets at the last possible moment like they did in August and today?

No, and the biggest companies don't think so either, which is why they are selling out to major international investments, the biggest being Dubai, China, and Singapor (all by state owned banks)

CNN: Big Businesses Getting International Infusions

CNN Why the FED Cannot Save US

Originally posted by LightinDarkness

You seem pompous and arrogant, decrying everyone who disagrees with you as being a "government shill." I suggest you stop acting like you know more than everyone else.

And stop using my lines in some type of infantile reversal of roles to try and paint me as what I've already painted you as. It's very childish. I'd expect more from someone who is obviously so educated and wealthy. We all get it. You think we are all peons who have no idea what is happening and who are all running around screaming the sky is falling. We get it, we get it: We are not worthy....

reply to post by Escrotumus


You know exactly what is going on behind the rethoric been played here that everything is just a cycle.

Now,

Cut in social programs? that is not what the morons in Washington have in mind actually they want to combat the low pay jobs and lack of wealth builders in the nation giving away more welfare checks and more food stamps.

Somebody have to keep the low income mases happy in case they become antsy, angry and create a home grown insurrection.

We don't want riots prior to elections in the land of the opportunity and the free.