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Asteroid 2007 TU24 has NASA concerned.

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posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 08:56 AM
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Even though many are saying "All clear", something does not feel right: why is this still not getting any coverage in the U.K MSM?

I hope this asteroid just passes by us whilst giving us nothing more than a fiery hello but I feel that NASA kept quiet too long, the world wide MSM kept quiet for too long and there's still no mention in the TV news or tabloid/broadsheet news papers in the U.K (at least, that I have seen or heard about). I don't remember the figures but I do remember that the (Asian) press releases I got to through Google (this morning) offered different figures for the asteroids closest point to Earth.

I'll keep reading here, it seems like the best place to keep up to date.




posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 08:57 AM
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Originally posted by V Kaminski
reply to post by Juicy
 


The Earth MOID changes constantly as it approaches. Most celestial bodies "wobble" and show some deviance from computed data. Don't worry unless you want to worry about something that can not be changed. It's coming and it's going to miss.

If the E MOID tightens up by another order of magnitude in the next couple a three days... then worry might be appropriate. It misses OK? If you don't think so phone an astronomer. Every sim says so... and yes they are only sims.

Amazing how many Indy-astronomers there are... and will be. LOL. I'm praying for good weather.

I'm surprised ATS doesn't have an Astronomer in Residence or something similar.

Cheers,

Vic


Okay V I am counting on you to come and drop a message on this board if it tightens up and let me know



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 09:06 AM
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reply to post by scrapple
 



Asteroid TU 24 will miss the earth see link posted here.

www.livescience.com...



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 09:07 AM
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Originally posted by mattguy404
It's not going to hit. Not without any, shall we say, 'intervention', hmm?
No, that's just feeding the fish in the tank...


Shame on you!



(I got slapped with a 20 point deduction for the above "one line" post. A warning given my short and quality career here would have been a better move. This board has now received a one star penalty on my board ranking system and has therefore fallen down the rankings of boards I will contribute to. You will probably earn the star back today so take it easy).

Ok what else should I write? That this bs has gone on long enough? The links pointing to the data have been posted over and over. If you want the TRUTH then read and digest the information presented about TU24. If you want to keep on being scared about this asteroid than ignore THE FACTS and allow your emotions to bounce up and down until this thing passes us at 3:33 am EST on January 29th, 2008.

[edit on 25-1-2008 by stikkinikki]



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 09:15 AM
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reply to post by Juicy
 



It's actually tightening at a rate that suggests a miss is certain... but the rates change and I'm partial to NEODys. It's really just mostly math. I'm on several alert lists... it won't make any difference. It misses. Comps come out daily.

If it (E MOID) were to have another zero to the right of the decimal? Yup, that'd be a real concern. At this point I'm just watching the media reaction... the the public reaction, then? Maybe someone will start spending serious efforts on NEOs.

As was said earlier by an astutue member they (NEOs) can almost pop-up out of nowhere and we as a species don't have much of an early-warning system that is... um, er, ah, public AND transparent AND possessed of enough resources just yet. Worse? No concrete publicly announced plans of how it "will" be dealt with. Just a bunch of maybes... from folks who have turned "maybe" into a career mantra.

There are folks working on this... not the ones read about either. A good number are waiting for the current US regime to go away... for a variety of reasons.

Cheers,

Vic



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 09:22 AM
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This is a test of the emergency system. I firmly believe this.

A late discovered asteroid coming (hopefully) close to earth has engaged the disconjointed players in this field who all have differing opinions as to how to deflect any current or future asteroid. There are varying technologies that the military industrial complex would I'm sure love a chance to test.

"Potential options identified in the NASA Report to Congress and discussed at the conference vary from slow-push techniques such as the gravity tractor and mass driver to more energetic impulsive techniques like kinetic impactors and nuclear explosives. Of course, technological development and verification is required for each, and the nuclear explosive option also requires addressing substantial public and international concerns."

I found this recent report fasinating and very informative

AIAA 2007 PLANETARY DEFENSE CONFERENCE

There are indeed protocols within this community that dictate a minimum 72-hour review before information is released to the public should a NEO impact risk be detected.

Additionally, there WILL be a test of deflection technologies with this asteroid in my opinion. Why, on earth, would this opportunity be passed up? There is considerable disagreement within the NEO community that going nuclear as the U.S. desires is the best solution. It is even suggested that any deflection efforts may create increased risk.

This recent conference also clearly focuses on the liabilities associated with informing the public about an impact risk and I quote,

"In addition, major legal and policy issues related to planetary defense need to be resolved. An example is liability for predictions that prove false or deflection missions that only partially work or fail completely, resulting in an impact. Other examples include:

· A prediction is made that an impact may occur in a specific area, and residents and businesses that might be affected leave. Are there liabilities associated with the loss in property values if the prediction is wrong?

· A nation makes a deflection attempt, but it fails to change the object’s orbit enough to miss Earth. Is that nation now responsible for the damage inflicted?

· A NEO threat demands the nuclear option, but public perception is that the possibility of a launch failure and subsequent damage is more acute than the threat from the NEO. What are the liabilities and political and policy implications associated with a launch failure during a deflection mission?

These types of issues should be discussed and resolved before they are raised by a serious threat." End quote

Guess what folks....they haven't discussed and resolved this yet.

This is a test of the emergency system. One of these players, in my opinion, is gonna play with 2007 TU24 and they don't necessarily want the whole world watching this excercise play by play and knowing every single detail. Just my take.

I'll let our illustrious leaders close this post in their own words:

Based on responses to past disasters, predictions are that an impact would result in initial confusion at all levels of leadership. The lack of understanding of the characteristics of a major impact event and impaired command and control are likely to result in delayed initial response efforts and resulting additional loss of life and suffering. As noted by Michael Chertoff, Secretary, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, in his testimony to the Select Committee Hearing after the Hurricane Katrina disaster: “This tragedy ‘once again’ emphasized how critical it is that we ensure our planning and response capabilities perform with seamless integrity and efficiency in any type of disaster situation—even one of cataclysmic nature.”

I'm not saying this is cataclysmic but being prepared and communication are not our government's best practices to date....

[edit on 25-1-2008 by DancedWithWolves]



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 09:33 AM
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reply to post by Bayman
 


Yes but.... That data is old, based on MOID .0038xxx. The newest number from nasa/jpl small object site is .001250. Harvard has it at .00099.



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 09:33 AM
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reply to post by V Kaminski
 


I think you have a good head on your shoulders. So you are the one I am counting on and I will be on the board on and off checking your comments.



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 09:34 AM
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reply to post by Larry B.
 



But Harvard doesn't have the means of necessities like NASA does as far as equipment goes, right?



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 09:54 AM
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Originally posted by Bayman
reply to post by scrapple
 



Asteroid TU 24 will miss the earth see link posted here.

www.livescience.com...



Bayman - I am sure it will;however,

considering the amount of data you have presented here, I still dont see how you clarified my question you are replying to: (Which is)


how the nominal distance achieved via radio and visual observation back on Jan 18th is exactly the same number now identified by the new, closer and more accurate Jan 24th radar track?



From Jon Giorgini, 2008 (Jan. 24)

Solution #24 (2 Doppler, 1 delay)

Date (CT) Body ________CA Dist, MinDist, MaxDist, Vrel
---------------------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------
A.D. 2008 Jan 29.35651 Earth .003704 .003704 .003704 9.248



From Jon Giorgini, 2008 (Jan. 18)

Date (CT) Body ________CA Dist, MinDist, MaxDist, Vrel
---------------------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------
A.D. 2008 Jan 29.35570 Earth .003704 .003702 .003706 9.248


Yet Nasa has now cancelled all further calls for visual observation, when the latest data suggests that visual and radio tracks were dead on the money accuracy - a week before radar was even up and running.....

What are the odds that 'updated' planet-to-asteroid proximity distances derived from radar' are the same 'exact' number provided a week earlier?

[edit on 25-1-2008 by scrapple]



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 09:56 AM
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This one is almost certainly going to miss.
Apophis comes even closer in 2029 - half as near again, and nobody is ruling this one out at all, as a tiny change in orbital parameters will swing it right into us, or further out.
The ones to worry about are those that will come in from the Oort cloud (Comets) - Kepler belt NEO (Asteroids) are not the major source of concern, as most are known.
Comet Impact is frankly overdue - serious extinctions occur every 62 to 65 million years, and The KT event was now 65 million years ago.
Oort Cloud comets - Long Period ones - are usually going to blind-side us.
With the earth about to enter that weird interstellar field any time now, things could indeed get interesting.



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 09:57 AM
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reply to post by ncuncfan2006
 

Pardon me for being worried. No need to put me down. Thank you.
_________________________________

Anyone, so where do we stand with this today?
Any further news?




posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 10:01 AM
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guys im sure we have a world plans if this thing comes for us, just like in futurama

they will prolly get everyone to pass gas in one direction to move the planet out of the way. simple. lol


whatever happens maybe homer will be right, an it will burn up in our atmosphere an be no bigger the the head of a chiwawa

[edit on 25-1-2008 by Tranceopticalinclined]



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 10:09 AM
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Originally posted by Larry B.
reply to post by Bayman
 


Yes but.... That data is old, based on MOID .0038xxx. The newest number from nasa/jpl small object site is .001250. Harvard has it at .00099.



You got it Larry B.

Unless we are not getting correct information, and decimal loss here can mean a few hundered or a few thousand km.

The updated JPL radar distances are now given in ACTUAL distances between bodies, so they are saying as I read it, that they didnt even have to do this last (and only) radar track - as the radio and visual telemetry a week earlier gave them 'just as good to the given decimal place) accuracy - and assurances.

I again dont think it will hit, but what's up with these number?



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 10:14 AM
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reply to post by scrapple
 



Harvard has some smart people, sure, but they do NOT have the equipment like NASA does. So I imagine that their info would be more guestimation than hard evidence.



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 10:17 AM
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Originally posted by DancedWithWolves


Thanks for that. The damn thing about space policy is that most of the population is absolutely held hostage to the 1% who can give accurate data. That's partly our(my own) fault for not being a Kepler or Hawkings, but people can only do so much. In this area we require absolute trust in the governmental authorities, and its a simple fact that as of 2008 that trust has ebbed - for good reason.

I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if on Monday night bush jr, gets up on the stupid box and looks us all in the eye and says " folks we've determined that this little asteroid will not hit 'this' time around, however, we have one orbit to get a plan in place for the next pass - as our best scientist (who, I squelch regarding climate change) tell me that the Global community is threatened by potential impact.....we will all have to sacrifices in this effort........)



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 10:22 AM
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Originally posted by Juicy
reply to post by scrapple
 



Harvard has some smart people, sure, but they do NOT have the equipment like NASA does. So I imagine that their info would be more guestimation than hard evidence.


Go back and look at my post that is from the same person - old and new data and I am fairly sure its from the Goldstone/NASA/JPL radar track made jan 24 - NOT harvard - who (I agree with you) may be simply compiling the Nasa numbers!



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 10:26 AM
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Originally posted by Rapacity
Even though many are saying "All clear", something does not feel right: why is this still not getting any coverage in the U.K MSM?


Because there are more important/interesting news stories. Science stories like this only find time when they are used as fillers between wars, rumours of wars, political resignations, the awful state of Britain today, celebrity gossip and global warming


"Small space rock passes Earth next week, not visible without an expensive telescope" just doesn't cut it when the country is over-run with Romanian Pick-pockets .....

[edit on 25-1-2008 by Essan]



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 10:29 AM
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Originally posted by Essan

Originally posted by Rapacity
Even though many are saying "All clear", something does not feel right: why is this still not getting any coverage in the U.K MSM?


Because there are more important/interesting news stories. Science stories like this only fuind time when there are fillers between wars, rumours of wars, political resignations, the awful state of Britain today, celebrity gossip and global warming


Sorry to hear about Your Northern Rock. The US Taxpayers will be asked for the same sacrifice shortly!



posted on Jan, 25 2008 @ 10:30 AM
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Obviously I agree... as you fellows may or may not know the Italian government fell yesterday.... so the news is talking only this subject.. politics politis and more politics

...there was a thread about a black hole being created artificially...could we create one of these things and just le this asteroid go into it??


ciao folks!



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