reply to post by xpert11
It is the leaders of Iran and the elements of the population that support that regime who want a war with the US. As for the level of
genuine support that the Iranian government enjoys from the local population is an unknown quality . IMO the anti Iraq war crowd grossly underestimate
the will the Iraqi people have to fight for there freedom and democratic way of life but that is another topic.
Well, I would not say Iraq had a “freedom and democratic way of life” in 1980-88 as we Westerners understand those 2 words. All Iraqi I have heard
describe the period prior to 1991 was this: lots of law and order and if you kept out of politics, not a bad place to live. That is the secret of a
long life in any totalitarian state. As Kenny Rogers sang it, “Know when to hold’em, know when to fold’em.”
Since the advent of Ayatollah Khomeini and the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, all decisions of consequence are subject to review by
the Supreme Leader who is the chief of state and is now the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The head of government, the Number 2 post, is President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad. [Note: I’ve compared Shia to Catholicism in Christianity and Sunni to Protestantism. Shia believe in saints, miracles and in the
supremacy of a hierarchical clergy. The Sunni don’t.]
We must assume the leaders of Iran whoever they are, are as well informed as anyone about the facts-on-the-ground in the region. And most likely are
much better informed than the United States Government is or ever was. After the March 18, 2003, Second Punitive Expedition to Iraq, as I like to call
it, harkening back to the 19th century British way of dealing with recalcitrant colonials, the balance of power was grossly disrupted.
And do not think for one minute the Arabs have forgotten the “mad dog loose” attack on Lebanon by Israel’s IDF in 2006, in which the US delayed
UN intervention for 34 days while the Israelis ran amuck killing who they willed. Aside: the 3 missing IDF soldiers are still missing. Hmm? Note: To
understand the endless conflict in Lebanon you must know what a “communion based republic” is or means. Quick: It puts the minority Christians in
charge of the government. End.
I am not aware of how many “enemy combatants” we have killed in Iraq. Estimates of Iraqi dead run from our 85,000 to the UN’s 120-200,000. If
the ratio of civilian-to-fighter deaths in Vietnam holds true in Iraq, then about 10% of the total (indigenous personnel) dead were “enemy
combatants.” That points to between 8,500 and maybe 12,000. (You may have read my black prediction the US will sustain KIA number 4,000 on March 9).
Balance of Power. Hegemony. As I have written elsewhere on ATS, there was a delicate balance of power after the drawing of national boundary lines by
the French and British around 1922. In 1948, Westerners who did not live in the region, introduced the survivors of the Nazi Holocaust into the
Palestine Mandate of the League of Nations. In 1967 the Jewish state of Israel reached its geographical zenith. The Temple Mount in Jerusalem is
included in this conquered territory. As you know, it is the Number 3 Holy Site in Islam. The Dome of the Rock and the al Akha mosque are sited
As long as Israel occupies the Temple Mount, there will be no peace in the Middle East.
Iran is exploiting that FACT we do not seem to be able to grasp on this side of the Atlantic. To us a Holy Site is Disneyland. A vacation destination.
Egypt is the only viable counterpoint to Iran in the region. But Egypt has so many people it is an explosion waiting to happen. Jordan is merely the
left-overs of the region. Lebanon is locked in an endless war of religions. Say Thank You, France.
Syria is influential but because of its location, not because it is inherently powerful. Saudi Arabia is like Egypt, an explosion waiting to happen.
It is an example how American c9lonialism works. We are keeping in power 300,000 members of the EXTENDED royal family of the Saudis. Who take most of
the oil revenues away from the 18,000,000 others living there. But the Saudi position is additionally complicated by their self-assumed Guardians of
Mecca and Medina status. Kuwait is merely an accounting device for the world’s major oil companies. Iraq is the only country in the region, other
than Iran, that has the potential to become an industrialized power of the Western type. And we’ve wrecked that possibility for at least one
Which brings us back to Iran. In reality, all they have to do is wait us out. We are not gong to remain in Iraq much longer. Even if we keep a Korea
size military presence - 38,000 - that force will be there ONLY to keep the oil flowing for ExxonMobil and TexacoChevron. Which is why we are in
Iraq. Everybody knows that but the US public. Hmm?
Foot Note: The Iranian Council of Guardians of the Constitution is a 12 member board made up of six clerics chosen by the Supreme Leader and six
jurists selected by the Majles (Parliament) for six-year terms; this Council determines whether proposed legislation is both constitutional and
faithful to Islamic law, vets candidates for suitability, and supervises national elections. Iran Facts: Area, 1.65 million km2. Population 65.4
million (2007) Median age 25; Ethnicity: Persian 51%, Azeri 24%, Gilaki and Mazandarani 8%, Kurd 7%, Arab 3%, Lur 2%, Baloch 2%, Turkmen 2%, other 1%.
GDP per person is $8,700. (2006). From CIA World Factbook.
[edit on 1/17/2008 by donwhite]