It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

US Recessions "Has Arrived"--Merrill Lynch

page: 1
5
<<   2 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 06:00 AM
link   

US Recessions "Has Arrived"--Merrill Lynch


news.bbc.co.uk

The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch.

It said that Friday's employment report, which sent shares tumbling worldwide, confirmed that the US is in the first month of a recession.

Merrill Lynch said that the figures showing the jobless rate hitting 5% in December were the final piece in that puzzle.

"According to our analysis, this isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality," the report said.
(visit the link for the full news article)




posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 06:00 AM
link   
Well they ought to know, being in the thick of the subprime meltdown and all...

And in typical Wall Street fashion, they are cocky even in dispensing the bad news:


[The report] also objected to the use of euphemistic terms for the state of the economy.

"To say that the backdrop is 'recession like' is akin to an obstetrician telling a woman that she is 'sort of pregnant'," the report said.



news.bbc.co.uk
(visit the link for the full news article)



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 07:16 AM
link   

Meryl Lynch forecasts a recession in the next 12 months with 100% probability. They were correct in predicting the 1991 and 2001 recessions by using this method. Former Fed Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan has raised his odds from 30% to 50%.

If we hit a recession and the Fed continues to lower interest rates (which will continue to lower the dollar), we have an even higher probability of a world wide economic crisis and possible collapse. Be advised.


infopatriots.blogspot.com...

From a different site, but many places are saying the same thing. I read in one article that the fact that Meryll Lynch is admitting to it, means that it is going to be real bad, because they should be the last ones to admit it due to the financial impact that they will face from the news.

I like Greenspan saying that there is a 50% chance.... sure. That is about as believable as Bush saying the markets are strong and solid.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 10:58 AM
link   
reply to post by Karlhungis
 


Yikes that's a cheery spin your source gives on the news. Agreed Greenspan is talking through his ahem, for which he has an unparalleled talent, and we only have him to thank for this--the unwinding is what he wound up in the first place.

It's an impossible position and this recession will tank the dollar. That much is obvious.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 11:07 AM
link   


It's an impossible position and this recession will tank the dollar. That much is obvious.


Actually, in a recession, the velocity of the money supply slows, which should actually have the effect of actually strengthenng the dollar. It should also serve to tame inflation. If the recession gets bad enough then i think we will actually see deflation of prices.

The gold bugs need to be careful. They may get what they expect economicly, but the result of those expectations will most likely turn out much different then they expect.

Me , I keep buying stocks and stock funds. 20 years until retirement, 30-40 years in retirement, gives me a time horizon 0f 50-60 years. Nothing will be better than stocks over that period of time.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 11:41 AM
link   
Its hard to tell really because the US does not go by the recession method which the IMF and World Bank. From what I've read/studied, a recession in the US economy does not always mean negative growth.

I'm surprised this has not hit the major headlines on CNBC and Bloomberg



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 12:04 PM
link   
and you wont because the government doesnt want you to know that are economy is in shambles. I posted about this awhile ago here
www.abovetopsecret.com...'
I urge you to read but I think if people knew the real status of this economy people would be selling houses, stocks, and whatever to get green in their pockets. Whats sad is the rich will sell long before the working class which we are starting to see and by the time the normal class goes to cash in there it will be to late.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 12:16 PM
link   
reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity
 


You analysis is logical but this looks to be a kind of perfect storm, with the subprime crisis undermining the major financial players and knocking out the only solid consumer pillar that the economy had left. Europe and Asia have far less exposure to this, and at least in Europe they don't gamble like we do here. The Fed is pumping money into the system right now at a staggering rate and all this is not going unnoticed. This could get very nasty and past recessionary models may not apply.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 12:21 PM
link   
The sky is falling. Need I say more? I think not, but I will. I must return later though. Excellent info!



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 12:24 PM
link   
reply to post by gottago
 


The key is that the money the Fed is pumping in, is just going to replace money already lost, thus the total money supply is not really increasing. Only people that can borrow money at this point are the ones that do not need it. Dollar falls due to increased supply and at this point we are not seeing increased levels of money supply. As asset values fall, money supply also starts to diminish,meaning that the dollar should start increasing in value. By the end of the year, I expect the dollar to increase in value vs the euro by at least 20 percent. At least thats my take. Every black cloud also has a silver lining.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 12:39 PM
link   
reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity
 


Quite truly I hope you're right and we do see a strengthening dollar but there is the flipside in that we see a flight to stability from a deeply wounded dollar into the Euro, which is entirely possible given our current economy and politics.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 01:33 PM
link   
Keep in mind that there is a lot of talk about a new "Amero" monetary unit being rollded out soon. If this crisis gets as bad as I think it will, the North American Union will become reality. And that's just the start of it. Look at the currnet climate of international politics. The Great Depression precipitated the last World War. I predict the third World War will be well underway in less than five years. With the significant pressure of a failing global economy, people will become more fearful and desperate. It would not be difficult to trigger global warfare under such conditions. The detonation of a rogue nuclear weapon for example, would be far more catastrophic than the direct blast effects. I worry about the situation in Pakistan when contemplating rogue nukes, but something far more mundane could suffice to trigger a holocaust the likes of which man has never known. Remember that the Great War was triggered by an asassination. The Second World War was a direct result of the first. This is some very bad juju my friends.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 01:50 PM
link   
World War 3 has been going on since the end of the Second World War... it's just that the CIA and the news media have been instrumental in downplaying everything... but now, it looks as though things have been brewing to a head since 9/11...and the market is just steps away from the cliff... once the new depression really hits, which will come first? the draft or martial law?



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 02:13 PM
link   
First the Fed is not pumping that much money into the system.

most of these new "injections" you read about are just "rollovers" when last months "injection" expired and needed to be rolled over, because it didn't do squat

the fed is a private institution it is not going to give away enough money to make a dent in the problem. they are trying to give an illusion that they have the ability to "fix" this. This allows the unwinding to be more orderly. THEY DON'T have the tools to "Fix" this. They are pushing on a string. Their is no good solution. They can't IMO inflate out of this, because they can't inflate away consumer debt ( at least i haven't read of gov't doing this before). Gov't has inflated away their Own debt, but as far as consumer's go. NO deal. And consumers have reached the end of their ropes thanks to falling home values. good luck stopping the deflation from a housing bubble, especially when banks don't trust each other and are desperate for capital. And to make maters worse the Agricultural industry is consoldiating so that 4 company's control most of the world's food, and they are using mostly GMO seeds and strong arm tactics to oust the small farmer. The great minds behind this push, have no problem culling or should i say sterilizing the useless eaters. If were lucky we will have a food shortgage ( real or artificial) and rapid food inflation as the multi nationals hoard natural resources and as usual profit handsomely.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 04:42 PM
link   
reply to post by cpdaman
 


Plus we're debt junkies to country that has something we want/need and that looks about as stable right now as the gulf stream.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 11:05 PM
link   
Not suprising, ML is a major cause of this; they should know.



posted on Jan, 9 2008 @ 01:31 AM
link   
I don't know much about economics, but is it possible that the dollar is MEANT to crash so the Amero can come gallop in on a white horse and save the day? If the Amero does take the dollars place what happens to the Federal Reserve then?



posted on Jan, 9 2008 @ 01:04 PM
link   
The Federal Reserve will just be renamed, if they even bother. After all, it is a privately owned corporation. Federal Reserve is no more federal than FedEx. There business will just shift to the Amero. It's a corpoarate expansion, not a shutdown.



posted on Jan, 9 2008 @ 02:02 PM
link   
Goldman Sachs doesn't say that a recession has "arrived", but they
are stating that one is likely in 2008.
1.9.2008 Story:abcnews.go.com...

I'm sure these gloomy forecasts didn't stop any of the brokerage
houses from giving out huge Christmas bonuses last month. I have a
friend who received a $42,000 bonus and he's just an entry level broker
at the low end of the bonus scale. Compensation in the financial industry
is amazingly lucrative it seems. -cwm



posted on Jan, 9 2008 @ 02:21 PM
link   
Wow! A recession. There have been many recessions, it is a cycle. Just like our own lives are a cycle. It won't be the end of the world. Well, unless you bought Enron stock.

The United States will not end, because of a recession.

Merrill Lynch and other large bank entities are reporting on a problem they helped create.....Lending money out to bad risks. That takes so much talent, and that is why the big shots still get there big bonuses.

They learned from the Savings and Loans scandals in the 1980's. Do stupid things and you still make money. 'Cause Corporate welfare is more acceptable than helping out people that need help......Boo hoo....rich Wall Street guy has to fly commercial fist class instead of private jet. Lets start a charity fund for them.



new topics

top topics



 
5
<<   2 >>

log in

join