Originally posted by citizen smith
Is it just my imagination (or too much coffee...) or does it seem that someone is trying to play both sides of the coin? Bhutto killed by someone
wanting to pin the blame on al queda, tribal-heatland chiefs killed by someone wanting to pin the blame on alqueda...a case of creating unity against
a common foe with the mantra of 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend' kinda thing??
Yes, a common enemy has been created. Hopefully this will finally allow Pakistan to get a grip on the Warizstan area. Unfortunatly this will simply
result in the Taliban and AQ shifting their Ops back to Afghanistan.
The new deal in Warizstan
8/28/06 Hellmutt started a thread called Gwdar Watch
. The thread is about a new
deepwater Port and related infrastructure being constructed in Pakistan, and financed by China. During that time the local tribes rebelled in an
attempt to create their own fiefdom in the area. His third post in the thread notified us that Pakistan President Musharraf was having difficulty
getting the region back under control because he was already fighting another front in Warizstan.
Then Hellmutt started a new thread
to cover that. It reported that Musharraf cut a
deal with the Taliban in Warizstan. The deal basically turned over control of Warizstan to the locals. The locals were allowing Taliban and AQ from
Afghanistan to stay there and perform operations from the area. This deal allowed the Pakistan military to focus on Baluchistan in order to put down
the rebellion there. That would enable the completion of the Gwdar Port on time.
The deal was successful from the point of view that the rebellion in Baluchistan was put down, and the Gwdar Port opened on time. The person most
responsible for putting down the rebellion was the Governor of the territory, Owais Ahmed Ghani. It turns out that he is very good at double talk. He
offered the hand of peace on one hand, and war on the other. While talking peace, he managed to have the military kill the leader of the rebellion,
Nawab Akbar Bugti
. There were some reprisals after his death, but basically that
ended the fighting in Baluchistan, and the rebels and Taliban moved their operations to the Helmand area of Afghanistan, and up to Warizstan.
The architect of the Warizstan deal, (called the Warizstan Accords), firmly believed that this deal would allow Warizstan to be more easily controlled
without the need for the military. He felt that the locals would be able control and contain the Taliban. This would result in a more peaceful
However, as we have all seen, the accords failed. The locals have unable or unwilling to control the Taliban. They continued and escalated
operations in both Afghanistan, and Pakistan. They took control of South Warizstan, and expanded operations in North Warizstan. Recently their
extended operations managed to take over complete control of the Swat valley.
During this time Musharraf has resigned as head of the Pakistan military. This has had the effect of allowing Musharraf to focus more on politics, and
allow the new military leader
to focus on restoring order. The difference is now
As reported back in September, 2007
, the military had begun a push of 90,000 soldiers into the area,
and reprisals were to be expected because of this. They have seemed have gotten bogged down though, or at least holding back due to political
pressure, since they did not make much progress. But recently, the tribal leader, Baitullah Meshud, has been accused of being invlolved in the
assasination of Mrs. Bhutto, and is currently being pursued
military. Since the death of Bhutto, the climate has changed even more dramatically.
A few days after the death of Bhutto, the Governor of the Warizstan territory, (the broker of the Warizstan Accords),
resigned his position
. The new Governor is now Owais Ahmed Ghani, the man who put down the
rebellion in Baluchistan via the murder of that rebel leader.
Now the military seems to be fully re-engaged on several fronts in Warizstan despite the fact that
they are not really looking for OBL
. Military attacks are not the only
tactic being used. Elecrtical power, and food deliveries
have been brough to a standstill in many
In the Swat valley they have almost regained control
. Bombing and taking over rebel strongholds,
bringing much needed supplies to the area, and capturing key rebels
. Even so, Taliban leaders are
telling their people to attack the military
in order to regain the ground.
The push by the military has caused some of the rebels to move out of the area, back to South Warizstan, and thousands of people are fleeing the
fighting by returning to Afghanistan
. Recent reports
speculate that the military is preparing to take over more areas, and begin building more bases to enable maintaining order in the area. The rebels
have fought back, and demanded that military operations cease within 2 days or there will be all out
In keeping their promise, the militants have attacked military outposts
. As pointed out by the
article posted in this thread, tribal elders who attempt to negotiate with the military are being killed,
attack checkpoints, and
In short, the old deal is completely null and void. The gloves are off. The new deal is a focused military occupation of the territories, now that
Baluchistan is stable. You can expect to hear many more reports of
, deaths, and kidnappings in the very near future.
I hope NATO in Afghanistan are aware and prepared for the influx of Taliban/AQ. They will certainly leave the Warizstan territory and shift
operations back to Afghanistan to escape the new war. Thats how its been done for years.
[edit on 1/7/08 by makeitso]