posted on Jan, 14 2008 @ 11:35 PM
St Udio i do appreciate the links
going back several years thru jim's archives one can see that he is a bit flamboyant with his writing but it may be because he knew the type of
trouble we are in for down the road (which is what he stated in his old posts which are very informative)
although since he writes for a gold website he may have a bias to interpret things more toward gold's liking ( but that is just weak speculation) on
One thing that i get is that should China decide to allow it's curreny to strengthen (which the idiots/ or as&holes in congress) were begging for
would lead to rapidly inflating prices in consumer prices in america.
It seems damn near the whole world is in some type of configuration where u.s consumers were put on a pedestal where we can live above our means and
be supported by credit which helps create the export demand for china and japan where the yen and yuan are supressed to keep their exports and trade
surpluses in tact and our prices low and deficits bulging.
the problem seems to come in to play when our consumers stop buying their crap, it would seem the path of least resistance for them to take would be
to develop more agressive relationships with emerging markets such as india and possibly arab country's where possibly they could keep there game
going just w/ different customers. (so the effect for american's would be modestly rising prices) but nothing "hyperinflationary". this may
include selling some of our debt and us depending on Gulf nations or secret gov't actions to purchase are debt or watch our intrest rates rise
this decline in our dollar (accelerated if the European Central bank does not cut rates) would allow moderate price inflation to become more apparent
and energy would probably begin to level off although gas prices tend to surge during summer, and a iran conflict would prob = oil shock.
it appears that libor rates have begun to level off and since these are tied to long term mortgage rates, perhaps people would benefit from
refinancing (thus allowing them to continue to live with some sort of piece of mind.
the biggest threat i see for the regular economy is unemployment and reduced consumer spending leading (in part thanks to lowering home values)
spiraling out of control.
as far as the financial economy is concerned i think banks will have pro-longed pain and be begging for SWFund injections as foreigners gain more
control of american corporations. If the credit markets stabalize i think gold will have a bit of a sell off, but i really don't understand all the
intrecacy's of the credit markets well enough to predict anything with a high degree of confidence coupled w/ the fact gov't rescue programs and tax
cuts or raises will play a part. if i was betting i would say the financial sector may have temporary spurts of normalcy (like we did last year from
late september to mid novemeber) but then get worse for awhile (sort of like a roller coaster).
This continues to be a topic of most intrest to me as far as the world is concerned just slightly more so than the new book "seeds of destruction"
that i am reading.
[edit on 14-1-2008 by cpdaman]