Originally posted by DevolutionEvolvd
Originally posted by buddhasystem
I'm not assuming that, however I think that's one instructive example of how this should be taken seriously. Fact is, we don't know whether there
can be runaway global heating on Earth. Until the models are refined to a degree that the calculations would deny such possibiliy beyond doubt, we
must consider such possibility.
Agreed. 
However, I would like to note that when the idea of a possible runaway global warming event occuring on earth was introduced it was
purely speculation. In fact, it was dismissed as a viable hypothesis by most scientists. This idea came about without the consideration of how
much closer venus is to the sun. Which for obvious reasons will cause the atmospheric temp. to increase. Nor did they consider the amount of heat
coming from within the planet itself.
I'm not denying the possibility, I am merely suggesting that certain obvious factors be included in these assessments.
But I digress. Back to the topic at hand. It seems to me that solar output definitely plays a huge role and could be the reason why the arctic sea
ice is re freezing.
Global Warming/ Solar Relationship
It has the usual role in the arctic ice refreeze, namely that it's winter and the Earths' inclination results in lower solar insolation on the
surface.
But the overall solar output---which is what matters for
global climate has not changed significantly.
At least 10 to 30 percent of global warming measured during the past two decades may be due to increased solar output rather than factors such as
increased heat-absorbing carbon dioxide gas released by various human activities, two Duke University physicists report.
New sunspot Cycle??
SOHO
SOHO has observed (Dec. 13, 2007) what may be the first indication of a "reversed" magnetic polarity region when compared to the current solar
cycle, something scientists consider to be a crucial indicator that the new sunspot cycle is about upon us.
If this is true, then the solar cycle is troughing, which indicates solar minimum. Now, we do know that during
The Little Ice Age solar activity was abnormally low for quite some time. So this may be just
another part of the cyclical nature of the sun - earth system.
It's no longer clear that the "Little Ice Age" was truly a global climatological phenomenon, or just one in Europe, where we have greatest records.
To assert that it is a "cyclical nature" of the Sun-Earth system requires physical mechanistic explanations, just like global warming from
greenhouse gases did (and it has been verified with experiments and observations).
All theories require backup.
The Sun's output has been quite carefully monitored for decades now with calibrated instruments. There isn't currently that much evidence of any
significant changes (i.e. some mythical "Natural Cycle"), or any reason to suppose the changes in the future will be in any beneficial (cooling) or
even more harmful (warming) direction versus the substantial contribution from increased greenhouse gases.
In any circumstance, the discovery of one new mechanism does nothing to eliminate other mechanisms (greenhouse forcing) which are very well understood
and validated with experiment & observations. It will just add to it.
Especially in terms of runaway global warming. They do have similiar attributes, but beyond that there are factors involved here that need to be taken into account before you start assumming that Earth has a chance of ending up like venus.
Now we've gone from global warming to an ice age!!!
This is terrible news as I had recently traded in all of my cold weather gear for bathing suits,
goggles and a snorkle - and it looks like it was all just a waste!
