Originally posted by RuneSpider
Speaking for somebody in the metal fabrication part of business, work for us is down, has been getting slower and slower over the past few years. I
work on screw machines, lately the work for those has been so slow, you can't sell the things anymore, warehouses are full. Most of our steel
contracts are gone, we make by on aluminum. Most of the folks not in my job area may not feel it, white collars fair better.
I would have though a business like that would increase its exports with the dollar being so low.. but what do I know of metal fabrication business?
One thing I HAVE noticed this year.. and much to my liking because I live right next to one.. is mall traffic is down substantially! .. I mean, its
empty compared to what it should be. I can actually get a parking space up close for one, stores are not packed by any means .. to me this could be a
sign that the worst part of the economic numbers will come out in the next quarter when retailers post substantial losses due to low consumer
Or maybe every one is shopping online because of gas prices, but believe it most likely people won't be spending as much.
I would find it very unlikely that the government can "fake" numbers with that many people and that many levels of government involved. Finally, if
government was faking numbers, why would they show any negative numbers at all - ever - why not just spoof the entire economy?
The Federal government, and more importantly the Federal Reserve cannot exactly fake numbers.. but they CAN and HAVE held the stock markets propped up
with buy out systems, stocks drop, Fed picks them up so as the market is not shocked. The other aspect of this is in the past 8 years after the dot
com bust and 9/11 interest rates where so obscenely low that banks and loaners over used and over loaned. All of this has lead to a high inflation ..
and while the Federal Reserve would indicate that inflation is "lower then average" taking into account that the US Dollar has dropped almost 25%
since 2001 alone should speak volumes.
So while they cannot exactly fake numbers, they can manipulate it easily, and they do.
There is inherent in this assumption some sort of connection between minimum wage and economic prosperity. Only 520,000 of a 200+ million work force
gets paid the minimum wage. How is it that raising it is going to create any real impact on the economy?
Double edged sword.
By not raising the minimum wage and with the devaluation of the dollar leading to increasing cost of living in such a short period of time, increasing
prices of oil by 100% from 2001 alone takes up a good portion of a minimum wage earners salary.. eventually the live to work to drive to work. The
economy left them behind because for so long no one bothered to raise it..
However.. once it was raised, the US STILL did not see a significant or even normal rise in Middle Class salaries. The number of millionaires went up
11.8% in 2006 while in 2006 the Middle Class reached its breaking point, leading to the 2007 financial melt down and real estate bubble bursting..
millions more are going to tarnish what little credit they have and loose their home.
And with the minimum wage raising this January I believe is when most state officially change, the price of average goods will eventually rise to the
equivalent of what the minimum wage once was, making everyday items even more expensive on the Middle Class, and the lower class..
Actually, inflation adjusted prices for oil are steady.
Not at all.. from 2001 - 2007 the price of gas at the pump has risen over 100% .. on top of that the oil companies shattered every record for profits
over any industry in history .. and the government brought in record taxes off it as well. The adjusted price for the 1970's oil crisis would have
been almost $88 a barrel .. I think we passed that a while ago no?
China has only threatened to reduce their holdings of US debt. It was merely a political thread in an attempt to gain some political capital - which
failed. China has yet to reduce its holdings of US debt.
China's biggest oil importer is Iran, who has officially stopped exporting in American Dollars, and instead chose Euros.. China is dumping certain
amounts of American debt and reserves for Euro reserves.. Since China also imports energy from Russia, it also has to diversify in Rubbles since
Russia also is now refusing American Dollars. Japan as well had to start building up Euro reserves for energy needs.
Currently China's biggest economic partners are India and Europe, Europe is set to out pace the US's economic investment within a few decades,
relieving China of a one nation survival plan, diversifying its investments.
I do agree that the Dollar is in an economic cycle, but I also believe the Fed has and is doing everything to make sure the cycle does not take its
natural intended course.
Housing prices have soared, and are now falling. Consumers were in a state of irrational buying and the house market gravy train is now ending.
Man, the rate that houses inflated their prices .. its insane. Luckily for America it was not an American problem .. the problem is actually far
worse in some European countries like the UK and Ireland. Ireland for instance, a house in the 1990's that would have cost 70k now cost over 400k
Outsourcing has been going on en masse since the early 1990's. Is there any evidence to show that this somehow creates a huge impact on the economy
now? I do not find any evidence for that.
I find the insourceing of personnel to be an even bigger problem. We outsource jobs, we create high tech jobs, we then import scholars from around
the world and saturate our own markets like the IT industry with Indians, Chinese, Japanese etc. Essentially we don't want to pay hard workers good
wages, and we don't want to employ our own educated people for high tech jobs, because again, they cost to much.
I have no doubt that a subprime credit crunch is real. But this does not indicate any sort of recession.
I think it could easily build into a recession .. not a depression, but a recession for sure. We have seen the markets slow and industry fall over
time, and this holiday season may turn out to be proof that consumers cannot consume like they used to .. a driving force in our economy. Consume,
I know all people are getting from me is a card.