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Abstract: The International Monitoring System (IMS) for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) faces the serious challenge of being able to accurately and reliably identify seismic events in any region of the world. Extensive research has been performed in recent years on developing discrimination techniques which appear to classify seismic events into broad categories of source types, such as nuclear explosion, earthquake, and mine blast. This report examines in detail the problem of effectiveness of regional discrimination procedures in the application of waveform discriminants to Special Event identification and the issue of discriminant transportability.
In early November, the CIA announced that the August 16 seismic event located in the general area of the Russian nuclear test site at Novaya Zemlya was not a nuclear explosion. The CIA determination ended speculation as to whether Russia had abandoned its unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing and violated international law by defeating the "object and purpose" of the Comprehensive Test Ban (CTB) Treaty, which it has signed. Despite this announcement, however, the agency has not concluded whether the seismic event was an earthquake or an explosion.
Civilian scientists are strongly criticizing the Federal Government for saying that a seismic event that rocked the Russian wilds two months ago might have been an underground nuclear blast.
The scientists say the tremor was unquestionably natural in origin, and they suggest that bureaucratic foes of the nuclear test ban treaty are distorting the truth in a bid to torpedo the treaty's ratification in the Senate.