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One early popular proponent of a pole shift theory was Hugh Auchincloss Brown, an electrical engineer who advanced a theory of catastrophic pole shift. Brown argued that accumulation of ice at the poles caused recurring tipping of the axis in cycles of approximately 7 millennia.
This is an example of slow pole shift motion, which displays the most minor alterations and no destruction. A more dramatic view assumes more rapid changes, with dramatic alterations of geography and localized areas of destruction due to earthquakes and tsunamis. Several recent books propose changes that take place in weeks, days, or even hours, resulting in a variety of doomsday scenarios.
Originally posted by jpm1602
Think about it carefully. It would be a planetary surfride. Gas lines exlpoding. Water lines exploding. It would be a party. Some will survive. They always do.
[edit on 3-12-2007 by jpm1602]
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Originally posted by jpm1602
I have felt a bad moon riseth for some time now. Dragon, IMHO suppose everything that was one pos, would be neg, and visa versa.
Originally posted by jpm1602
suppose everything that was one pos, would be neg, and visa versa.
Oak Ridge National Laboratories estimated that only a solar storm just slightly stronger than the 13 March 1989 storm (Dst = 589 nT) would have the capacity to produce a cascading blackout involving the entire Northeastern sector of the United States. So the question is “What damage would a spawned geomagnetic storm like the one of 2 September 1859 (Dst = 1,760 nT) bring?”
Would it simultaneously degrade and damage several unique large electrical transformers at key electrical generating stations taking down the massive power grid? Would the long lead-time required to manufacture and install replacement equipment result in major year long electrical blackouts, rolling blackouts and brownouts? How would a long-term lack of stable electricity affect advanced civilization?
Originally posted by squiz
As I said earlier the potential does exist for power grids to be wiped out and transformers destroyed if they are not shut down, shutting them down is costly and time consuming as I understand it and there will be a very small window of opportunity for this to take place.
Originally posted by Pilgrum
Electrical generation and distribution systems have extensive high speed protection systems that operate in milliseconds. The major components such as generators & transformers are majorly sturdy pieces of plant and the weakest, most sensitive part of the overall system is the protection system itself (all electronic these days) and perhaps the generator excitation control systems. Losing enough transmission lines and generators due to protection operation will cause a cascade effect resulting in a total blackout which could take many days to put back together for a large country.
There is a singular aspect present in the very largest solar storms that has the potential for creating a global disaster, potentially knocking civilization to its knees. The very largest solar storms have the potential for simultaneously destroying key elements of the electrical power grid infrastructure. These elements are unique, expensive and have long lead times (greater than 1 year) for replacement.
GICs can cause transformers to be driven into half-cycle saturation where the core of the transformer is magnetically saturate on alternate half-cycles. Only a few amperes are needed to disrupt transformer operations. A GIC level induced voltage of 1 to 2 volts per kilometer and 5 amperes in the neutral of the high-voltage windings is sufficient to drive grounded wye-connected distribution transformers into saturation in a second or less. During geomagnetic storms, GIC currents as high as 184 amps have been measured in the United States in the neutral leg of transformers.13 The largest GIC measured thus far was 270 amperes during a geomagnetic storm in Southern Sweden on April 6, 2000.
If transformer half-cycle saturation is allowed to continue, stray flux can enter the transformer structural tank members and current windings. Localized hot spots can develop quickly inside the transformers tank as
temperatures rise hundreds of degrees within a few minutes.3 Temperature spikes as high as 750° F have been measured. As transformers switches 60 times per second between being saturated and unsaturated, the normal hum of a transformer becomes a raucous, cracking whine. Regions of opposed magnetism as big as a fist in the core steel plates crash about and vibrate the 100-ton transformers which are nearly the size of a small house. This punishment can go on for hours for the duration of the geomagnetic storm. GIC induced saturation can also cause excessive gas evolution within transformers. Besides outright failure, the evidence of distress is increased gas content in transformer oil, especially those gases generated by decomposition of cellulose, vibration of the transformer tank and core, and increased noise levels of the transformers (noise level increases of 80 dB have been observed). GIC transformer damage is progressive in nature. Accumulated overheating damage results in shortening transformer winding insulation lifespan eventually leading to premature failure.
August 2, 1972 – A solar storm caused a 230,000 volt transformer located at the British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority to explode.
December 19, 1980 – A very expensive 735 kV transformer failed 8 days after the Great Red Aurora of 19 December at St. James Bay, Canada.
April 13, 1981 – A replacement 735 kV transformer at St. James Bay, Canada also failed the next year during another geomagnetic storm.
March 13, 1989 – At 02:45 EST on March 13, geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) inundated the transformers of the Hydro-Quebec power system and overloaded them with current....
March 13, 1989 – The solar storm destroyed a $12 million generator step-up transformer owned by the Public Service Electric and Gas Company of New Jersey.
October 30, 2003 – A power grid in southern Sweden located in Malmo experienced a 20-50 minute electrical blackout affecting 50,000 customers due to a strong solar storm. The same storm caused significant transformer damage in South Africa. Over 15 transformers in South Africa were damaged, some beyond repair.