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Commercial Airliner orders

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posted on Nov, 26 2007 @ 06:26 AM
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I see 3 or 4 airbus threads on the front page, and kinda thought it would be a bit tidier to leave this thread open for inclusion of future orders from any commercial builder (Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, Embraer etc)



PARIS, France (CNN) -- China has signed an €11.7 billion ($17.4 billion) deal for 160 commercial planes from Airbus, a spokeswoman for the European aerospace giant has told CNN.


CNN

Not bad... but what have they given up in return? Any technology transfer I wonder?




posted on Nov, 26 2007 @ 07:12 AM
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Airbus had a deal a few years ago to build a version of the A320 in China which was, I think, based on, or smaller than, the A318 model but this seems to have died, so there has already been quite a bit of tech transfer between Toulouse and Beijing I think.

Interesting to read in Flight this morning that Boeing are now considered to be where Airbus was five years ago in terms of knowing what to do next. An interesting piece warns that just as Airbus dallied with the A350 while the 787 came along and marched off with the lions share of the market to date in the 230-270 seat sector, the reverse might happen in the 300-350 sector.

This comes on the heels of Emirates order for the XWB, which includes 20 A350-1000's, Boeing meanwhile have still not decided how to replace the the 777-300ER, the options being a '777X', the 787-10 or the Yellowstone 3 project.

Richard Aboulafia, of Teal group, says "Boeing eeds to move fast....the A350-900 is nosing ahead of the fading 777-200ER but worse is that the A350-1000 might start to displace the all important 777-300ER"

Tim Clark, at Emirates, is one of Boeings staunchest supporters with 71 777-300ER's on order so the fact that they have ordered 120 XWB's and not one next gen airliner from Boeing is being taken as a serious warning.

Although I would have thought that after seeing Airbus' early botch up of taking on the 787, Boeing would not dare make the same mistake in this segment, it is reported in Flight that Boeing may have lost its appetite for any more new launches in the near future with the 787 delays and the 747-8 also underway.



posted on Nov, 26 2007 @ 07:42 AM
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Originally posted by waynos
Although I would have thought that after seeing Airbus' early botch up of taking on the 787, Boeing would not dare make the same mistake in this segment, it is reported in Flight that Boeing may have lost its appetite for any more new launches in the near future with the 787 delays and the 747-8 also underway.


They probably want to get the 787 out the door and running before making many more plans.

I reckon purely on personal opinion, now that that they are trying to mass-produce the 787 they are running into a lot of teething problems, and more than a few people in Seattle will be having sleepless nights.



posted on Nov, 26 2007 @ 07:48 AM
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Originally posted by kilcoo316
Not bad... but what have they given up in return? Any technology transfer I wonder?



Seek and ye shall find (its an older article on A320s)


Der Speigel (don't worry its in English)




The Chinese have long been working as subcontractors for aviation giants including Boeing and Airbus. But as the country picks up know-how from the Americans and Europeans, many fear it may use Western intellectual property to compete on the global market with its own aircraft in the future.


The People's Republic wants to get to work on the construction of its own giant airplane by 2010, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao recently announced. China has long been considered the world's factory, but it doesn't want to produce only for others anymore, whether the products be cars or airplanes. Asia's rising superpower is hungry for Western knowledge on everything from the design to the assembly process.

Now Airbus itself is fostering China's ambitions: In a recent deal, the company agreed to produce the new Airbus A320 in China from 2008 on in return for China's purchase of 150 airplanes. Where exactly the new factory will be located will probably be announced in the next few days*.



* Its at Tianjin Airbus

[edit on 26/11/07 by kilcoo316]



posted on Nov, 26 2007 @ 08:56 AM
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At least they will be able to put the crappy Y-10 behind them now. Although they did build MD-80's in China in the late 1980's and the new ARJ-21 looks very much like a shortened MD-80 too (could it be built on the left over tooling?)

ARJ-21



[edit on 26-11-2007 by waynos]



posted on Nov, 26 2007 @ 10:08 AM
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Originally posted by waynos
At least they will be able to put the crappy Y-10 behind them now. Although they did build MD-80's in China in the late 1980's and the new ARJ-21 looks very much like a shortened MD-80 too (could it be built on the left over tooling?)

ARJ-21



[edit on 26-11-2007 by waynos]


The wingspan seems very short... I think.



Something is out of proportion anyway - maybe its not the wings but something is.



posted on Nov, 26 2007 @ 11:26 AM
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That would also point towards it being based on the MD-80, for instance take a look at the DC-9-40 for a wing that looks far too small for what it is being asked to do




[edit on 26-11-2007 by waynos]



posted on Nov, 29 2007 @ 05:14 AM
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reply to post by waynos
 


This is the same story years ago with the A340 and the 777
Boeing has always been very conservative and they have shared a public timeframe for their next 2 planes.

One thing about the A350-1000 is when is supposed to be delivered. According to Airbus the plane should arrive by 2014 if the projects goes without glitches, would u bet on that?

But although people paint a bad picture for Boeing things are not quite like that.

The B777 still sells very very well it still has a couple of years and keep in mind that Boeing has evolved the plane and time goes on.

Y3, the 777-747 replacement plane is set to debut around 2013 so when the A350 is about to begin it's operation it will be pitted against a brand new aircraft just in time to replace all those brand new 777 of today

Also Boeing acknowledges that their is still one version of 787 the -10 but Boeing hasn't finalised specs or offer it to anyone (I guess they first want the 787 off the ground)

Now some people forget that the A350 is a couple of inches wider than the 787 (literally) but far less than the 777 so is some cases the plane will be a downgrade for passengers

As side notes

First Y1 the replacement for the 737 and the real money cow is to debut around 2012 and 2013; However Airbus doesn't even have the money to fully paid for this A350, Boeing might have made the decision to burn the 777 (like they did with the 767) and push their resources on getting the small aircraft first than Airbus and really crush the A320. This could be far more dangerous for Airbus than any 787, A380 crisis.



posted on Nov, 29 2007 @ 08:43 AM
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Originally posted by waynos
That would also point towards it being based on the MD-80, for instance take a look at the DC-9-40 for a wing that looks far too small for what it is being asked to do


Having flown many, many times on an MD-80 (or variations thereof), I can attest to the fact that they give a very smooth ride in most kinds of weather.

Believe it or not (and based solely on my own experience), the regional jets offer a smoother ride and more room than the big jets.



posted on Nov, 29 2007 @ 10:34 AM
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Originally posted by carcharodon

One thing about the A350-1000 is when is supposed to be delivered. According to Airbus the plane should arrive by 2014 if the projects goes without glitches, would u bet on that?



The EIS years for the A350XWB family are as follows:

2013 - A350XWB-900
2014 - A350XWB-800
2015 - A350XWB-1000

And yes, I would say these are certainly achievable, and I would not expect any delays at all for the following reasons:

1. The A380 delays were extraordinary in appearance, and Airbus has taken an indepth look at their entire design and manufacturing chain since then, so don't expect a repeat

2. The A380 timeline before the delays was only 4.5 years from launch to EIS, 7 years after the delays. The A350XWB timeline from launch is 7 years for the -900, 8 years for the -800 and 9 years for the -1000. Thats a substantial amount of buffering for potential problems.



But although people paint a bad picture for Boeing things are not quite like that.

The B777 still sells very very well it still has a couple of years and keep in mind that Boeing has evolved the plane and time goes on.


The B777 will sell well for the same reasons the A330 is about to beat, and infact double, its all time annual sales records even in the face of the 787 - its the only aircraft available new for the next 5 years or so. The 787 is sold out until 2012 to 2013 and thats driving A330 sales.



Y3, the 777-747 replacement plane is set to debut around 2013 so when the A350 is about to begin it's operation it will be pitted against a brand new aircraft just in time to replace all those brand new 777 of today


No, the Y3 hasn't even been announced yet, and its supremely unlikely to make an appearance before 2018. The next project Boeing will be engaging in is Y1, the next generation narrowbody which will be available around 2015.

Boeing is being very cautious about Y3 because its supposed to replace both the upper 777 and the 747 - and of course they have just spent several billion developing the 747-8 series.



Also Boeing acknowledges that their is still one version of 787 the -10 but Boeing hasn't finalised specs or offer it to anyone (I guess they first want the 787 off the ground)


Boeing has been offering the -10 to several customers recently, and is on the path of formally freezing the design.



Now some people forget that the A350 is a couple of inches wider than the 787 (literally) but far less than the 777 so is some cases the plane will be a downgrade for passengers


Passengers don't care about the width of the aircraft, simply how crowded the airlines make it via 9 abreast or 10 abreast.



First Y1 the replacement for the 737 and the real money cow is to debut around 2012 and 2013; However Airbus doesn't even have the money to fully paid for this A350, Boeing might have made the decision to burn the 777 (like they did with the 767) and push their resources on getting the small aircraft first than Airbus and really crush the A320. This could be far more dangerous for Airbus than any 787, A380 crisis.


Firstly, the Y1 will not appear before 2015, this is from Boeing themselves.

Secondly, Airbus are currently funding A350XWB development from cash flow, although the rising dollar is hurting this. They will however have absolutely no problems finding funding for it if required, as its well on the way to breaking even already with nearly 400 orders and commitments to date.

Thirdly both the A320 and 737 series are selling extremely well, so neither Boeing nor Airbus want to prematurely kill that area of income - the Airbus A320 line has nearly a 3,000 frame backlog currently, making it essentially sold out (apart from the odd slot here and there) well into the next decade. The 737 line is in a similar situation.

The moment Airbus or Boeing put their next gen widebody offering on sale, if its done too soon you will see a vast number of those backlogs being converted as soon as the airlines can humanly do it. Thats what both manufacturers want to avoid at all costs.

Do not expect either manufacturer to put their next gen narrowbody replacement on offer until 2012, 2013 at the earliest.



posted on Nov, 29 2007 @ 06:01 PM
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But u see the A350 in many respects is far more complex for Airbus than the A380

First thing is Airbus limited experience with composites, Boeing is having some delays with the 787 assembly and well they had a lot of past experience through military projects (remember that the 787 assembly line was taken from the X-32 project)

So Airbus has changed how its going to make the plane several times (Panels, full section) over and over. Also they have problems finding partners to help them accomplish the tasks since Boeing pretty much is working with the big players in carbon composites (would u trust China for building your airplane?)

Second like I said even some A executives have stated that they might need lunch aid from the EU (say bye to the tanker contract)

So thing are not that easy. Airbus needs to present a plan for all those things and then build the plane, the I will believe their timeframe; and I do think Y3 would be ready to replace the brand new 777 of today, like u say if both Airbus and Boeing are happy with the A320 and 737 Boeing might push Y3 first than Y1



posted on Nov, 29 2007 @ 06:43 PM
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Originally posted by carcharodon
But u see the A350 in many respects is far more complex for Airbus than the A380


And in many other ways its less complex.



First thing is Airbus limited experience with composites, Boeing is having some delays with the 787 assembly and well they had a lot of past experience through military projects (remember that the 787 assembly line was taken from the X-32 project)


Airbus has more experience than Boeing had when they embarked on the 787 project - Airbus has been using composites since the 1970s on its aircraft, Airbus produces the largest composite structure known to man (the tailcone of the A380), Airbus produces the largest load bearing composite structure known to man (the A380 wingbox, the first wingbox to be made from composites).

Airbus has the experience from producing the A400M wings, the only fully composite wings of their size yet produced - the A350 wings will be almost identical in structure if not design.

And in a little known fact, EADS, which would be Airbuses parent, is producing the rear pressure bulkhead for the 787 - again made out of composites!

So tell me, just who has the less experience with composites in this game?

Boeings delay is not through lack of experience, its through several other reasons:

1. They picked bad tier 1 risk sharing partners, and they got let down. Boeing have said they will not be picking these tier 1 partners again.

2. There is currently a world wide shortage of CFRP stable aviation certified fastners, which Boeing needs to do a lot of final assembly on the 787

3. There is a lot more 'travelled work' to be done on the first two or three airframes than thought previously.

Out of all of these, only point 2 has anything to do with CFRP, but even then its got nothing to do with the complexity of the aircraft and any lack of experience issues on Boeings part.



So Airbus has changed how its going to make the plane several times (Panels, full section) over and over.


What does that have to do with the price of butter? So Airbus have refined the design several times over the past 3 years - they have done what their customers have asked. If Airbus was still pushing the original A350 design, now that would be a worry. But they aren't - their customers asked them for a wider, newer fuselage cross section, and Airbus agreed, their customers asked for more composites, and Airbus agreed. The design changed because their customers wanted more.

Whats so bad about listening to your customers?

Oh, and Airbus has not switched to full barrel on the A350XWB - the design remains CFRP cured shaped panels on a CFRP frame, constructed into major subassemblies and then assembled into a fuselage.

No one piece barrels here.


Also they have problems finding partners to help them accomplish the tasks since Boeing pretty much is working with the big players in carbon composites


No they aren't - 60% of the A350XWB manufacturing package has already been placed with suppliers, and major contractors for the 787, such as Alenia, are in final discussions about work packages as well.

The rest of the work package is due to be placed over the next 10 months - the final specification milestone is not due until November 2008, and that is when they will have allocated all their contract work by.


(would u trust China for building your airplane?)


1. China already produces major structural parts for the A320 family

2. China produced a not insignificant number of MD-90's for McDonnell Douglas in the 1990s, all of which are still flying and all of which were delivered to major western customers, including US airlines.

3. China is getting an A320 family final assembly line, which will supply both the aircraft to fulfil Chinas order for over 500 of the aircraft, and most of the orders from Asia Pacific in the next decade. The FAL will be online by the end of this decade.

4. China has been awarded a 5% risk sharing work package for the A350XWB already.

5. Chinese subcontractors supply major parts for the Boeing 737, 757, 767, 777 and 787.

I don't see any reason not to trust China.



Second like I said even some A executives have stated that they might need lunch aid from the EU (say bye to the tanker contract)


There have been some unnamed sources quoted as saying they would like Airbus to seek government investment for the A350XWB, but nothing official has been posited one way or the other. Besides, RLI was granted to Airbus under the 1992 agreement prior to the US withdrawl, so legally Airbus can still take it if they wish - they have said before however that they do not wish to unless the situation worsens, and with the tanking collar it most certainly has worsened.

And the KC-X tanker contract is guaranteed to go to Boeing anyway.



So thing are not that easy. Airbus needs to present a plan for all those things and then build the plane, the I will believe their timeframe; and I do think Y3 would be ready to replace the brand new 777 of today, like u say if both Airbus and Boeing are happy with the A320 and 737 Boeing might push Y3 first than Y1


Things were never 'easy' - this is the aviation industry after all.

But neither are they as dire as you seem to make out.

Y3 wont come before the second half of the next decade, 2016 onward - it simply wont. Boeing need to continue to sell the 747-8 to recoup their investment there which they wouldnt do if Y3 was launched, and several airlines are demanding a refresh of the 777 line (weight loss, incremental performance enhancements, a better aerodynamics package etc) which will also cost money.

Boeing do not have any spare capacity to engage on a Y3 project in the short time between the 787 coming off the line, the 777 updates and the 747-8 project coming to fruition in the next 3 years, as well as incremental projects such as the 787-10 and the potential future 787HGW and -11 versions.

Y1 is the next project, but the problem it faces is that the benefits of CFRP barrel construction does not scale downwards very well - you will not see the 25 - 30 % savings benefit from moving from alu to CFRP on a narrowbody fuselage. The best I have seen from both Airbus and Boeing studies is 10 - 15%, which is still good but not good enough when thats well within the cost benefits range of reduced pricing on current generation models.

The next gen narrowbodies will see their inprovements come from two places - firstly, improved aerodynamics and airfoils.

Secondly, and this is the big one, is engines - this is where the next gen narrowbody battle is going to be won or lost for either manufacturer. The engine manufacturers are going to have to deliver next gen performance - and both GE and RR have said that they wont be ready to deliver that until the middle of the next decade.

[edit on 29/11/2007 by RichardPrice]



posted on Dec, 4 2007 @ 03:27 AM
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Not quite on the same scale as the Chinese orders, but a few more here



Hawaiian Airlines, Inc., Hawaii’s largest airline, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Airbus for six Airbus A350 XWB-800s and six A330-200s, selecting Airbus aircraft for the first time in their history.


and



TAP to acquire up to 15 A350XWBs and eight additional A320s

TAP Portugal has signed a firm contract for 12 A350XWBs, plus three options, and a letter of intent for an additional eight A320 Family aircraft. The Lisbon based airline herewith converts its initial order for the A350, placed in December 2005, into the new A350XWB, and has, simultaneously, increased the number of aircraft ordered, from 10 to 12.


more



KLM Royal Dutch Airlines has signed a contract for the acquisition of two further A330-200s plus an option on two, herewith bringing their total A330 fleet to 12 aircraft. This acquisition is part of the longer term fleet renewal and expansion plans of KLM.


US airways



US Airways is expanding its A330 fleet with the purchase of five more A330-200 passenger aircraft. This firm order is in addition to the 92 Airbus aircraft, including 10 A330-200s ordered by US Airways in October of this year.




meanwhile, over in Seattle:



Boeing [NYSE: BA] today announced that KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, part of the AIR FRANCE/KLM Group, has placed an order for additional 737 and 777 aircraft. The airline will add three Next-Generation 737-700s and two 777-300ERs (Extended Range) to its fleet. As part of the agreement, KLM took options on one additional 737 and two additional 777s.




Anything else is pre (or during) the Dubai airshow.



posted on Dec, 4 2007 @ 01:31 PM
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Originally posted by kilcoo316
Not quite on the same scale as the Chinese orders, but a few more


Airbus has booked the following for certain in November -

Emirates -
70 A350XWB
11 A380-800

NAS -
20 A320

Air Arabia -
34 A320

HRH Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal -
1 A380-800

Air Blue -
8 A320

Al Jaber -
2 A318

Yemenia -
10 A350XWB

Oman Air -
5 A330

Nile Air -
9 A320

US Airways -
5 A330

KLM -
2 A330

TAP Portugal -
12 A350XWB

China Southern -
10 A330-200

Making for a total of 191 gross orders booked in November, *at least*.

The China order remains uncertain as to whether its a firm order yet or not - if it is, then we are looking at over 350 firm orders booked.

Do not be surprised if we see Airbus take upward of 1,500 orders in 2007.



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