Dow Jones is about to hit 13000

Originally posted by Outrageo
So this is a great time to BUY! When everyone is bailing out and stocks are cheap, load up on the discards, wait until they all pile back in, THEN sell. It's the American Way - just as Warren Buffet...

p.s. Buy (when) LOW, sell (when) HIGH!

Good luck...

Well that's good advice since we all learned back near the turn of the century that hitting the panic button when things are looking bad is a very, very bad thing.

Libor rates rising ( a la August) plus freedie mac 2 billion losses , still market is UP ( was up 140/150, now like 60) (Euro:yen cross was near 163 now 162.8) which is why they are up, for how long who knows?

People should sell on this up day, IMO

The big players know this is not their father's market or economy, and that cutting the fed fund rate to ZERO is not gonna help the credit markets, due to derivatives exposure, ARM resets, and a rising LIBOR rate.

The Only thing a huge rate cut does is kill the dollar and help consumer confidence a lil bit. The only thing is a emergency fed meeting to cut rates, is not really something to get one's hope up over is it?

I do not get any pleasure from saying these things.

lastly as i edit and type this for an update the dow is thankfully making a nice late day comeback (well off it's lows and in the green).

"Dow theory" is followed by many money managers and has shown some effectiveness (why they follow it) If the dow should close any day in the next week or two under 12850, then that signals we are going down at least for awhile ( so it could be characterized as a level of support) and a reason for late afternoon rally's (possibly thanks to the Plunge Protection Team to keep the markets (for now) from.

alot of money has been flowing out of the stock markets domestically and crossed the ocean ( in both directions)

The reason i beleive the dow theory is so important is that money managers use it as a tool , and they control at least 80% of equity purchases.

[edit on 20-11-2007 by cpdaman]

[edit on 20-11-2007 by cpdaman]

That's some interesting information. It could break through that 12850 mark today as it's at 12880 now but who knows were we'll be at the close. One thing for sure, the market has been dropping steadily for weeks since we were above 14000 last month. Is this what they call a "soft landing"?

late day free fall is close to closing at or below the 12850 "or so" area

we got 40 minutes to go, economists who follow and chart "dow theory" say the support level that would need to broken for a "bear market signal" and thus influencing money managers (who trade most equities and follow dow theory) is between 12850 and 12880.

finance.yahoo.com...

follow the ticker, by the way i would look for the PPT to come in and get a late day surge (but who knows)

For ex charts point to a close call and close just above around 12900.

dow theory confirms Bear Market ahead.

close today was 12799 well below the 12850 mark

this does not mean their can't be a rally from here, but history of dow theory shows it would be short lived and new significant lows will be reached . as exlained yesterday. is this a sure thing, i dunno but alot of big wigs follow it very closely.

reply to post by cpdaman


amazing end today eh?

I looked at mid day and it was down 60, no biggie, just erases the gains from yesterday, then again a little later down 90 points. Then I read an article from CNN on the Fed saying they are facing the possibilities of a recession.. next time I look it was down over 200 points.

The Dow Jones industrial average (Charts) lost 211 points or 1.6 percent. That set the Dow at its lowest point since April 17, when it ended the session at 12,773.04.

Loss over 6 months of stock gains.



Always like the little graphics with CNN financial reports.

"Financials and housing have been a wet blanket on the entire market," said Richard Sparks, senior equities analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "We're seeing the weight of the subprime worries and the credit crunch coming home to roost."

All financial markets are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and Friday's abbreviated session ends at 1:00 p.m. ET. Attendance Friday is expected to be low and trading volume light.

Despite the minimal market action on that day, Friday is key for stocks and the economy in that it is Black Friday, the kickoff for the critical holiday shopping season.

I have heard more then one source say that Black Friday will be the key point for the rest of the economic year.. if sales are not as above or at least at forcast then the retailers will be feeling the pinch and the economy will continue its slide. People seem to be interested, higher gas prices, inflation, economic worries.. if people will be spending more or less this Christmas season.

Update:

Woot Woot! Dow fell through 13,000 alright -and has since gone back UP through 13,000 by a wide margin!

Thanks to all of you who panicked, bailed, and gave me and others a great opportunity to BUY! What a run!

(p.s. NOW may be a good time to take some profits out (while the doom&gloomers buy back in).

This was a great thread! Please chime back in when you next think the market will tank and you are selling -so we can BUY at a discount again...

Buy Tips for today: CNO WS, NFI, SCA, CEA, EXM, FRE, C, GE, PFE, AMZN, EMC...

Good luck - have fun - make lots of money...

Originally posted by Outrageo
Update:

Woot Woot! Dow fell through 13,000 alright -and has since gone back UP through 13,000 by a wide margin!

Woot! Woot! , it sure did, and to be honest i am glad it did ( my clients having disposable income is what allows them to afford me) and me to pay the bills

Thanks to all of you who panicked, bailed, and gave me and others a great opportunity to BUY! What a run!

you can thank us again when the Euro/ Yen cross comes back down from 163 , if you study the euro/yen cross you will see it mirrors the US markets.

The euro will soon fall in value when investors realize the ECB is done raising rates, and may in fact have to cut them in fall of 08, as for the yen that will likely bounce back when the next wave of credit trouble breaks, which will be...........gee....any hour now

in the meantime the dollar is having a lil bounce so gold and silver will take a hit, till they climb again.

p.s nice signature

[edit on 28-11-2007 by cpdaman]

two intresting developments

euro/yen cross is about 163.6 or so and has been in this vicinity for the last week allowing the dow to surge to 13600 or so, but on friday it was 163.6 and the dow did not go up (5 points is neutral).

in the past anyday above 162.5 was very positive 4 markets and this was well above that yet no more upward movement, if this is the case again monday we may be in for a large correction downward when the euro/yen goes back down under 161 (within next week or two). Monday may tell a good deal (even though it is the day before the fed announces how big a cut it will make)

also gold price moved up on a couple days where the dollar went up and oil went down (usually dollar up=gold down) , this shows that gold has some good support around 780 and that if the dollar bounce ends soon and central banks the world over keep cutting or holding rates, alot of the money may flow into the safe haven of gold and the price may shoot upward, the wildcard is a dramatic downturn in the credit markets which may send the price of nearly everything downward (at least initially) if credit vaporizes and fear takes hold, before metals go back up (when the gov'ts response is to print mo money) however in which case the social unrest would probably be accompanied by laws prohibiting hoarding of metals.

I believe that the news of Iran drop of the dollar completely is going to put a hold on the markets on Monday.

Also the feds may no do anything to the interest rates as Bush already this week informed that he will step in to freeze interest rates.

Soooo next Monday and the following days are going to be very interesting . . .

Dow will probably be hitting 14,000 before too long.

Originally posted by princeofpeace
Dow will probably be hitting 14,000 before too long.

Yeah...but wait until 1st Q 08. I see the bounce as managers trying to end the year in the black. After all they do have this year’s bonus to look forward to. Next year....not so much! Plus you have what $100B in paper that is no longer AAA, which means they will attempt to dump early and hope to recoup losses by the 4Q.

On the plus side, my company can not keep up with business, export brokerage & purchasing. Although we are a small a hit, due to the higher cost of nickel and steel, the dollar is keeping the US very competitive.

People keep predicting some hige stock market bust...been happening on ATS for over a year now and was ALREADY suppose to have happened several times if you listen to these so called "experts" but it has yet to happen.

Yes, the stock market will climb and fall and sometimes in dramatic fashion depending on news (as it always does), but an all out crash is not going to happen anytime soon. I'll check back in next year and i'll re-post this again.

P.O.P what would you describe as an allout crash?

the fed will cut tommorrow , there imo is about a 95% chance although intrest rates will not help consumers that much , see i think its one thing to make money cheaper for banks to borrow, and quite another to get them to lend out

*accept* to possibly help investor confidence

the key IMO will be when ratings agency's downgrade the biggest bond issuer MBIA and bonds will take a tumble , should this happen intrest rates will rise on loan's like automobile's and for credit cards.

there is a chance that asset price deflation hits and consumer price inflation hit's the u.s (esp. if the gulf cooperation council depegs from the dollar= gas prices rising mucho) the exception may be gold, and the safe haven may be u.s treasury bonds

my guess is a rate cut of .50 on tuesday



[edit on 10-12-2007 by cpdaman]

The U.S. economy needs to revamp itself. The only "growth" that occurred in the past few years was in speculative real estate, oil, and defense. The defense boom will not last forever. The Iraq war is going to end sooner or later. Real estate is dead for the time being. As far as oil is concerned, people are sooner or later going to reach a breaking point at which they severely cut their oil consumption or the government puts price controls on oil. None of these bodes well for oil companies.

I think the best bets in the U.S. stock markets are investing in companies that manufacture. With the dollar at all time lows, the U.S. will become a cheaper place to manufacture. While the labor is not as cheap as it is in China or India, the U.S. work force is somewhat more skilled and educated. This makes the U.S. an ideal place to manufacture things that take a somewhat skilled workforce like cutting edge electronics and biotechnology. Cars may get a boost because American made cars will be much cheaper.

dow down about 270 today, usually before globalization when the fed cut intrest rates money flowed out of the BOND MARKET and into the Stock Market. keep in mind their is more money in the bond market than the stock market.

Well thanks to globalization lower intrest rates and a weakening dollar along with mortgage bond nightmare's may cause flows out of the bond market and into stock markets. Just probably not U.S stock markets, although blue chips could do decently well, however keep in mind the big money does not usually want to invest in a depreciating currency.

I think the stock market will bottom out around 11500 later this year and depending if HEDGE FUNDS blow up we could see a deflationary default chain. where globally stocks would go down.

don't worry/ when the deflationary crash happens your debt will appear much larger and w/ new bankruptcy laws enacted you will probably get the chance to pay them back performing slave labor in prison CAMPS.

nine months ago it was much lower though (and higher between then and now) so what does that mean?

ten year chart: Link

[edit on 15-1-2008 by monkey_descendant]





[Mod Edit: Link format - Jak]

[edit on 17/1/08 by JAK]

Originally posted by cpdaman
don't worry/ when the deflationary crash happens your debt will appear much larger and w/ new bankruptcy laws enacted you will probably get the chance to pay them back performing slave labor in prison CAMPS.

OooOoooOOOOO All i will have to do is eat and sleep and hit rocks with a pick axe to pay off debt? But can't I be a medical test mouse or something instead?

Where do I sign up?

What cause the markets today to go down was again was another big financial group failing to expose their troubles with the housing market crash and waiting too long.

Citigroup was today the one to fall in the long line of falling financial groups, last week was Countrywide bail out.

Yes we still have more to come but falling they will. . .

Citigroup's $10 billion loss is worst ever
Writedown: $18.1 billion. Dividend cut: 41%. Job cuts: In the works. Chief Executive Vikram Pandit says financial giant's performance was 'unacceptable.'

money.cnn.com...

[edit on 15-1-2008 by marg6043]

Originally posted by marg6043
What cause the markets today to go down was again was another big financial group failing to expose their troubles with the housing market crash and waiting too long.

Citigroup was today the one to fall in the long line of falling financial groups,

Citigroup:

Prince Charles is the 3rd largest shareholder @
1,612,732 Shares, as of his last sell on the 13th of July 2007
(note the date... go look at the Citi chart on google finance for that month... and since that month)