reply to post by SpeakerofTruth
Of course Dallas won't be playing to lose. Who does
play to lose other than teams going for the #1 pick?
But just as you said Dallas will be playing harder because they know homefield will go through Green Bay if they don't win, couldn't you make the
same case for Green Bay playing harder so they get Dallas to have to come to Lambeau?
To truly get an idea of who may win this, you gotta break down the teams.
Green Bay Offense vs Dallas Defense
Green Bay is the number one passing offense with 298.8 yards per game. Dallas' pass defense is 16th in the league, giving up 211 a game.
Now, I don't know Dallas' defensive backs all that well aside from Roy Williams and Terence Newman, but Green Bay has seven dangerous options to
pass to. You could make the case that Favre is the one that makes them dangerous, but the fact is, Driver, Jennings, Jones, Martin, Lee, Robinson, and
Grant can all catch, and can all run.
Given that Green Bay passes more than they run, and they put a lot of these guys out there every play, Dallas will have to focus on covering these
guys rather than pass rushing. No pass rush means Green Bay can sneak a few good runs in here and there, and it means Favre will have time to throw
Dallas does seem to have a good run defense, and typically you have to open up your running game in order to open up your passing game, but I think
Green Bay has done the opposite this year. Their passing game has been so good that Ryan Grant has been able to step in and open up a running game.
So I'm not sure what Dallas is going to do. Are they going to stick to their strength and stop the run and try to force the passing game down? Or are
they going to try and put everything in to stopping Favre and make Grant beat them?
Dallas Offense vs Green Bay Defense
Dallas is the number three passing offense with 274.2 yards a game. Green Bay's defense is the number 18 ranked defense, giving up 213 yards a game.
So it's close to the same situation here as it is Green Bay's offense vs Dallas' defense.
The big question is - can Tony Romo beat Green Bay's defense? Is he good enough? Does he have enough under his belt to take that next step and truly
show up in a huge game like this? In the huge game he played earlier against New England, he threw for 199 yards, 2 TD's, and an interception. Yes,
it is New England and there is a difference, but this is still a huge game. Is he easily bothered by pressure? That'll be key.
T.O. is going to have to face two of the best corners in the league in Woodson and Harris, and if he comes over the middle, he'll have to deal with
two very good linebackers in Hawk and Barnett. I'm not saying he'll be shut down. He'll get his catches, of course. But I wouldn't expect a 150+
yards and 4 TD type of game.
So that leaves it up to Crayton. Can he produce and give T.O. and Romo a little help? He's been really inconsistent and has dropped passes at
I don't expect Witten to be easily guarded. He's going to get his catches. That may be the weapon that Romo will have to use. If he doesn't go to
him often, Dallas may not put up a whole lot of points. Against good tight ends, such as Gonzalez and Gates, the Packers gave up 100+ yards to both of
them, and Gonzalez scored a TD. If I was Dallas, I'd go to Witten often.
Dallas seems to have a fairly good running game, but it remains to be seen whether they'll be able to get past Green Bay's run defense. In four
games against Tomlinson, A. Peterson, and Larry Johnson, they gave up 272 rushing yards and 1 TD. That's 68 yards a game average. So they do have a
fairly good run defense.
Overall, I think Dallas and Green Bay are very close. Their run defense rankings are close. Their pass defense rankings are close. Their pass offense
rankings are close. The run offense rankings aren't close, but Green Bay seems to have found their guy now and it's starting to pick up. He's no
Tomlinson or Peterson, but he's good enough to help out Favre's passing game.
Also, both Dallas and Green Bay have a near exact opponent's combined record/strength of schedule. Both lost in ways that you shake your head at;
Green Bay lost a trap game that could have EASILY gone the other way, and Dallas lost to a team that just doesn't look like they can be beat. A loss
is a loss, I realize that. But still - both losses seem a little iffy as long as we're talking about how close both could be to being undefeated.
The only difference I can see that may
play a part is Dallas has had a couple games where they kinda pulled it out in the end and could have
They're both good teams, though. It'll be a good game. It'll be a tough game for both.
Take my biased assessment of the game how you will.
Green Bay: 34
[edit on 11/19/07 by NovusOrdoMundi]