US Stocks To Fall 60%!!!

a low dollar makes our exported goods cheaper to other country's IF the other country's currency is NOT falling faster than ours.

and before i rebute traders comments i would like to bring up someting about the weak dollar being so great about the trade deficit.

There is a DODGY way of reducing the trade deficit.

obviously you can reduce it one of two ways. increase exports or decrease imports. if american people go deep in debt and stop buying crap and demand drops, and our imports drop, while exports remain the same, guess what trade deficit deficit does? it drops ! IS THIS GOOD!? heck no

now currency's and import prises

Just stating our Curency is weaker is NOT ENOUGH INFO to determine if imported goods will fall or rise in price, it depends how the country's currency exporting to us (has faired compared with ours!) if they have fallen faster than us, then their goods will be cheaper, if they rise they are more expensive,

more expensive imports (the result from a weaker currency in relation to the country's currency you are trading with) equals less purchasing power for u.s consumers and business's doing the importing. or in another group of similiar words. import prices RISE

THIS as a poster above stated is BAD for the majority of consumers, it lowers our standard of living.

so here is what OBE1 said and your reply to him

Originally posted by OBE1

Originally posted by traderonwallst


Actually, it's the reverse Trader. A strong Dollar against other currencies makes our imports less expensive. A weak Dollar makes our imports more expensive.

Similar dynamic for any country with a Dollar-peg

YOU COULD NOT BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH HERE. Where did you learn this? When the dollar is weak, our imports are from exporting countires, and allow us buy goods cheaper. Basic economics will teach you this, and I am not going to spend the next four hours explaining it to you. Take a course in economics, then come back and tell me I am wrong.

TRADER here it is from the HORSES MOUTH , The chicago FED


www.chicagofed.org...

A weak dollar also hurts some people and benefits others. When the value of the dollar falls or weakens in relation to another currency, prices of goods and services from that country rise for U.S. consumers. It takes more dollars to purchase the same amount of foreign currency to buy goods and services. That means U.S. consumers and U.S. companies that import products have reduced purchasing power

so trader ...............you are wrong, clearly wrong. (it happens, breathe, i am probably wrong on the market outlook i posted in this thread)



[edit on 13-11-2007 by cpdaman]

reply to post by cpdaman


I am not clearly wrong, you not looking at the whole picture. At those prices they can not sell their goods. Again, we are talking about optimun pricing. They have to lower their prices to compete in our markets. Didn't you read my posting??? Please the read the entire post. Economics is not a vacuum. It works on what is called economies of scale. Things slide in order to fit models. If I came into a market with goods that cost more than goods currently in those markets, would you buy my goods? Hell no, your not stupid, yes I am assuming but iI will stick my neck out on that one. So they have to reduce pricing, thus allowing American consumers to buy foreign goods cheaper than they normally could. They have to determine the optimal pricing point for optimal returns. This is how business works, this is how business has always worked. I forgive your for not understanding, but I can't forgive you for not reading the post in its entirety. If you had you would have UNDERSTOOD where I am coming from.

Now, I believe you said:

so trader ...............you are wrong, clearly wrong. (it happens, breathe, i am probably wrong on the market outlook i posted in this thread)


So, please do me a favor, take a deep breath..........I am not wrong, you misunderstood for not looking at the whole picture (but it happens).

By the way, I was already talking about how the weak dollar helps in the trade deficit in the same thread, guess you missed that too!!!!




[edit on 13-11-2007 by traderonwallst]

[edit on 13-11-2007 by traderonwallst]

After re-reading my response and the posting you showed, what I should have explained is they were showing how things work in a vacuum. A non-competing place of business.

In reality things work a lot different and prices correct. Just like business cycles. When things get out of whack there are built in corrections that take place. Our world is not a static place and things change. I will agree I could have have explained it better, but I was responding in haste due to the tone of your repsonse.

A fellow ATSer had already warned me about that this morning, and I should have walked around my computer like they recommended. I apologize for sounding mean.......

Just because the FED has something written on their web page, does not mean thats how things work. Just like in the stock market, there are price differences and corrections that need to take place. Why do "traders down on the floor" buy and sell stocks? They see price inefficienceies. Simply put, they believe the stock is priced incorrectly. Due to supply and demand they believe the price should be somewhere else. If that is the case the price will correct and they will get out of the trade. Just like in the example I gave you, if my goods are priced to high for your market, I must either correct them lower, or you must agree to pay more. Will you agree to pay more, just because I need them priced there for a profit? No, I have to lower my price and hope to sell more goods to achieve the same profit. (optimum pricing - the bell curve)

Its a bit thinking outside the box, but thats how business works.

If things were as easy as it is in books, we would all own our own business, and we would all be 100% correct when it comes to stock picking. There are tons of outside forces at work in business, currency risk is just one of them.

reply to post by traderonwallst


Enjoy your good fortune as the rest of hard working dying middle class has gotten nothing but debt and lost of jobs due to outsourcing.

And thanks but not I will stick with the old gurus.

The only reason markets are surviving is due to the fake liquidity that the feds are transferring to keep the banks afloat after the housing crash.

But that will only last so long in the hopes that the markets will correct themselves.

Is not really responsible to ignore the reason we are where we are at right now, due to corruption and greed.

Is a big percentage of the hard working Americans that will fall more and more into a hold created by that corruption and greed.

Is nothing free or fair when it comes to free trade at the expenses of our nation home base manufacturing now a dying breed.

The only ones that had benefiting from the free trade and the sell out of our nation are the elites behind the freed trade and the countries that are taking advantage of our open policies with predatory trade practices.

This what free trade is doing to American citizens

Buffalo is now the second-poorest large city in the country, surpassed only by Detroit. All of the large industrial cities as well as Social Security and Medicare are approaching bankruptcy. The overall economy is riddled with debt

www.buffalonews.com...

A nation to remine strong needs to grow in manufacturing or agriculture, this are the means to produce wealth.

America is losing both and more, so you can not say that we are doing peachy when it comes to our nation’s means of producing wealth.

Because the only ones getting wealthy in America are the elite that rules this nation.

The elite of both parties — that is the wealthy, the managers of the transnational companies, bankers, fund managers, importers and retailers — make huge profits from outsourcing jobs, investing overseas and importing cheap foreign products. Therefore, the elite remain free-traders.

These elites are the ones that write the legislation for our chosen by them politicians that is killing our nation.




[edit on 13-11-2007 by marg6043]

Trader

you are jumbling your answers, doing anything other than to admit that your if anyone's (responses) were poorly worded and among other things wrong.

and your argument is weak, they can't cut prices THAT much it would squeeze their margin to thin, they will just try to gain larger pieces of the growing emerging markets "pie as well as increase exports within Euro carrying country's (for euro zone exporters) , or watch their trade deficit go up. and even if they cut prices a tad , you would be a fool ( or more likely stubborn, with a dash of ignorance) to say the END RESULT would be LOWER PRICES for consumers(than what they were paying last year) for the u.s consumer, because that is who we are talking about, not the prices for the exporters!

the u.s consumers would still be paying more than they did last year, even if foreign exporters tried to cut their marign (lower prices), just not as much more.

so yes they may cut their prices which would make them lower than they would have been (if they didn't cut them at all LOL) , but still a rise in prices for the u.s consumer (especially with EURO ZONE partners) but the chinese as well


i should have known by your signature, your ego was to big and fragile to admit being wrong, clearly wrong.

good day



[edit on 13-11-2007 by cpdaman]

reply to post by marg6043


Remember....there are 2 sides to every market. You don't have to be long the markets for the sake of American pride. If you think things are so bad and the economy is going to hell in a hand basket. Short the market or go buy ETF's that short the market. There are things you can do for yourself to help the situation, don't just sit there and let an opportunity to make money walk by. Unless you enjoy feeling sorry for yourself and complaining to everyone else. Don't complain about people who do well for themselves through hard work. I had nothing handed to me and work very hard for what I earn. Since I seem to be offending everyone with my pro business stance, I guess I will move on to another thread.

reply to post by cpdaman


Enough said, insulted for the last time.

If you can't think outside the box to understand how business works thats not my fault.

Have you ever run a business? Or are all you life experiences based on something you have read?

I am done with this thread. deleting it from my que.

have a good day, I am fully expect to see you bash me other places.

reply to post by traderonwallst


My friend I am not complaining but rather pointing out to the realities that are plaguing our nation, you wanted or not they can not be ignore for the health of a nations economy and the results of what bad practices are doing to that health.

Is the people in the middle like me and others that are going to be burdened with the tab as more Americans fall in debt and desperation.

That can not be ignore either you like it or not.

Perhaps your investments can take you out of US as I can imagine that such a good investor like you have enough liquidity to get out of the dollar crunch.

When it comes to the economy of a nation is more to it and is many economic factors that affects everybody unless you are so wealthy that you have not worries.

I see that you post a lot of opinions and that is fine with me really but is nothing but opinions, perhaps some links to back your views may be in order as so many of us are backing our post with links also.

Just a friendly suggestion.




[edit on 13-11-2007 by marg6043]

Originally posted by traderonwallst

YOU COULD NOT BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH HERE. Where did you learn this? When the dollar is weak, our imports are from exporting countires, and allow us buy goods cheaper. Basic economics will teach you this, and I am not going to spend the next four hours explaining it to you. Take a course in economics, then come back and tell me I am wrong.

Ya try to help some people and all you get are complaints that your a greedy bastard because you used to work on Wall Street.

Wow! Why so defensive Trader? Take the Chill-Pill I don't recall criticizing anyone's prior employment? It seems you're the only one making repeated references to a former Wall St. career...not me, or others. I don't recall soliciting your help either If you desire to teach, and some members find your input of interest...that's a good thing! Personally, I disagree with several points...and it has nothing to-do with someone's purported Street experience.

While a strong dollar would be good for our pockets, it will make goods (imported) more expensive - traderonwallst

The Dollar is only judged Strong or Weak, in relationship to other currencies. This is the context of your claim. Imports will always be less expensive when purchased with a stronger currency...more expensive when purchased with a weaker currency. Cpdaman explained the profit dynamic.

Have you noticed a shift in consumer prices since the Dollar weakened below USDX 80.00?

Too much for the average Joe to grasp? He needs years in business...years of studying the complexities of Austrian economics? That's a myth perpetrated by a system that benefits from keeping him in the dark my friend.

I hope you keep posting Trader, but if you choose to interpret disagreement as insult...so-be-it.

On the issue of Dollar strength/weakness you are confused.

i have never posted.i have an australian economics degree.i have never worked on wall street. You americans have traderonwallst. You americans have individuals working in your financial system that are trying to disseminate this idea that a weaker USD lowers import prices. You americans are in more trouble than you think. cheers

Originally posted by traderonwallst


Take a course in Economics, you will find out that the reason you got lost was that you do not understand BASIC economics. A low US$ makes imported goods cheaper here in the states, and OUR exported goods are cheaper over seas. Does wonders for our large multinational companies here in the states, like United Technolgoies, John Deere and Caterpillar. Also does wonders for all those employees of these companies, and there are hundreds of thousands of them. So by saying I am greedy, I guess they fall into the same category. After you take the basic Economics course, come back and talk to me, debate me, what ever. Just don't sit there and insult me based on some TV show you saw on HBO. That does nothing but show your true education level.

Stupid does as stupid is told to do. Don't be stupid, get educated and actually debate. Bring substance to your conversation, not insults it really is unbecoming and rather lame in my opinion.

Want to learn anything else today? Just ask away, i will try to enlighten you!!!!!!!! There is no such thing as a stupid question, just stupid insults.

[edit on 13-11-2007 by traderonwallst]

I've forgotten about this thread until today but OMG I don't know how to even respond to this post it's so outrageous. Let me get this straight trader on wall street: a dollar in the toilet means foreign imported goods (things that we buy from other countries) are cheaper for us here in the states? Huh?? Either you are dyslexic, misworded your post or you are no trader on wall street my friend. Wow, attack me for having no basic economics understanding and then turn around and post that....

Let me ask you a simple enough question then? Why is the price of oil sky high now? The dollar is in the toilet and oil is an imported good. Simplified, but more or less the main reason.

I have to assume that you meant something more than you posted or simply misworded your post if you truly are a wall street trader. Maybe you are privy to some other kind of financial facts that we lowly and less educated people aren't? I'm confused mate.

[edit on 11/20/2007 by Escrotumus]

Originally posted by traderonwallst

Originally posted by Escrotumus
Yes....he lost me from taking him seriously way back when he posted that. He also doesn't get it about outsourcing or many other things I see. It may be good to the barons on wall street to outsource but it's ultimately not good for the other 99% of the country who is just trying to get by.

Congrats you greedy traders and corporate execs, you short sold and made your shady deals and made a lot of money for yourselves, but you and others like you are the ones responsible for destroying this country. I watched a show about young wall street traders on HBO a few weeks back and was just appalled at the greed and lack of integrity and morals of those young men. Truly disgusting human beings that have no concept of love of anyone or anything besides themselves. Perhaps it is time to have a one world government after all since many people don't understand the concept of sovereignty.

Take a course in Economics, you will find out that the reason you got lost was that you do not understand BASIC economics. A low US$ makes imported goods cheaper here in the states, and OUR exported goods are cheaper over seas. Does wonders for our large multinational companies here in the states, like United Technolgoies, John Deere and Caterpillar. Also does wonders for all those employees of these companies, and there are hundreds of thousands of them. So by saying I am greedy, I guess they fall into the same category. After you take the basic Economics course, come back and talk to me, debate me, what ever. Just don't sit there and insult me based on some TV show you saw on HBO. That does nothing but show your true education level.

Stupid does as stupid is told to do. Don't be stupid, get educated and actually debate. Bring substance to your conversation, not insults it really is unbecoming and rather lame in my opinion.

Want to learn anything else today? Just ask away, i will try to enlighten you!!!!!!!! There is no such thing as a stupid question, just stupid insults.

[edit on 13-11-2007 by traderonwallst]

I had to log in for this one

Ok let me get this strait you say that a devalued dollar makes imported products from other countries cheaper for the american people??

Where did you get that crazy idea from??

If the dollar is devalued - Say it is worth less than the Euro would it not take more dollars to buy those products since the Euro is worth more than the dollar??

The answer is YES! Think about it.

Orioin