US Stocks To Fall 60%!!!

Originally posted by OBE1
reply to post by bluewagon

 

Probably not reassuring if you are long the major indices BW. Ripple-through precious metals & commodities too. Presently the Dollar has picked-up some support...see if it holds?

P/O

any bounce will be feeble

and japan just opened down a few hundred

As a "blow hard" clairvoyant, I don't have a good feeling about all this. Don't we (US) need some reserves for weather related problems, maybe 2012 problems?

reply to post by DeepCoverUK


Nice analysis. I also do not think we fall much further. The stock holdings for us in the US are denominated in dollars. When the dollar gets weaker, then it takes more dollars to equate the same value for a company. If the dollar falls 60% then a stock with a value of $1 would have to rise to $1.60 to equate the same value. Inflation actually makes stock prices go up.

This is what I would like to happen. Hyperinflation of the dollar. Borrow from the fed to repay all our debts with the very weak dollar. Then we buy the fed for $400 million which is a part of the Fed agreement and cancel all that debt that we then owe ourselves. Enact NESERA if there is such a thing and wipe out the credit card and mortgage debt of all americans. Recapitlize the banks with the new Amero. At that point America will reestablish itself as the greatest economic power in the world. Then repeat all the same infationary steps over the next 100 years. All our future generations will be set.

Hello, new here so please forgive any faux pas made on my first post.

Someone in a post above mentioned the war in Iraq and all of the money used to fund this endeavor. I have often thought of the sacrifices made by citizens during WWII and how we today make no personal sacrifice during war time. Back then, people bought war bonds, saved scrap iron, and many things were not available. Today, we go on with everyday life, spending on credit as is nothing were amiss.

Not sure if this train of thought is relevant, but I'm thinking that maybe if we, as citizens, were more cautious and more diligent in recycling for the *war effort*, it would not only help the economy but make us more aware on a daily basis of the men and woman fighting this war.

reply to post by flora


Is a big difference between Iraq corporate war for profits and WWII that actually help our economy boom after.

This time we have a nation that is been run by corporate greed and their goal is actually bring down our nation with no regard to its citizens or our men and women in uniform.

Look what it has been going on, outsourcing of our jobs, dependency of nations like communist China to finance our debt, low pay jobs, open borders, housing market crash due to greed, credit card crunch, the sell out of our industries.

laws to protect corporate American needs over the citizens of this nation.

I can go on and on.



[edit on 11-11-2007 by marg6043]

Thanks disgusted, I wish more people here were bullish (foolish?) like me!

However I have just been reading about how all these carry trades are going to destroy my tech gains this week!

Once again a booming sector is hit by dodgy bankers

Maybe it is time to start using my margin account and shorting everything in sight

Originally posted by bluewagon
couldnt this be a good thing though?
so when the market begins to plummet, that means theyll be cheap, allowing people to buy the stocks cheap and then watch as it rises back up... or is that completely wrong?

Yes at when the stocks reach its most bottom level buying up all you can is the best thing you can do!

Of course..............

How do you know where the bottom is? 10,000? 8,000? 4,000?

If your a small time investor and the market drops as it has, then you buy a ton of stocks at cheap prices.. just to have the prices drop another 20% or even fall out completely like, say Citi or Countrywide go broke.. well the market is always a gamble, but yes, you can always make out if you play the cards right. In the 1980's buying some stocks in large quantities would have had you sitting on a good amount of cash.

As I type the major Asian markets are already down some 3-4% today. American markets don't usually follow the trends of other markets, our market being the trend setter, it could very well be a bad day on Wall Street and for the major European markets.

[edit on 11/11/2007 by Rockpuck]

reply to post by cpdaman


Check this out just found this on Bloomberg. CP I am sure you know what happened to the stock market in 1987. Maybe we get a crash this week.


"The People's Bank of China ordered banks on Nov. 10 to put aside 13.5 percent of deposits, removing about 190 billion yuan ($26 billion) from the financial system. The ratio, up from 13 percent, is the highest since at least 1987, according to Bloomberg data. "

I still can't see 60% happening; I just don't feel thats coming on. The other sectors are strong enough to support the one crappy one. And as our dollar further depreciates, we should be selling a lot of stuff to foreign countries right now; it should be very cheap for nations using the Euro.

Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity
reply to post by DeepCoverUK

 

Nice analysis. I also do not think we fall much further. The stock holdings for us in the US are denominated in dollars. When the dollar gets weaker, then it takes more dollars to equate the same value for a company. If the dollar falls 60% then a stock with a value of $1 would have to rise to $1.60 to equate the same value. Inflation actually makes stock prices go up.

This is what I would like to happen. Hyperinflation of the dollar. Borrow from the fed to repay all our debts with the very weak dollar. Then we buy the fed for $400 million which is a part of the Fed agreement and cancel all that debt that we then owe ourselves. Enact NESERA if there is such a thing and wipe out the credit card and mortgage debt of all americans. Recapitlize the banks with the new Amero. At that point America will reestablish itself as the greatest economic power in the world. Then repeat all the same infationary steps over the next 100 years. All our future generations will be set.

i may be eating a few of my words from my first post, but in retrospect i don't think a currency depreciation is responsible for stock rises

stock's don't reprice up or down when $ are devalued. They only fall or rise from the foreigners perspective who has euro, or whatever to trade in.

OIL does because the shieks demand the same value back every month, so they say hey you are gonna pay me more since your currency is worth less.

stocks have risen this year due to

1. buy out mergers (which are done with)

2. yen carry trade

3. inflation of money/credit supply thanks fed


however more money may be printed, but no one can make this inflation flow into stocks , especially should fear in the markets take over.

plus the inflation in credit has been the main driver of the boom over the last few years, not production, as the credit may dry up even the printing presses can't make up for the POOF of credit loss. asset values deflating which the banks base the amount of base money they can lend off, this will equate to less credit available by a multiple of 10 (x loss in bank assets being repriced downward)

we may be looking at asset price deflation (houses, stock's) and consumer price inflation ( food, insurance, goods)

or maybe the fed and the media will pull some bull&*#t out of their butt's

man i hope they are good magicians

in fact some of our jobs may depend on it


[edit on 11-11-2007 by cpdaman]

dp

[edit on 11-11-2007 by cpdaman]

Just a side note

A drop in the dollar usually brings with it manufacturing jobs as it becomes cheaper to make goods in the good ole USA


Just a few cents more and I'll have a nickel


GEO

reply to post by geocom


Yes that could be true if it wasn't for the other factors that are making third world countries so attractive to corporate America outsourcing.

Like slave workers on sweat shops and disregard of environmental and safety issues.

In America that doesn't work.

President Bush said our current economy is very strong and everything is fine. You guys should have more confidence in our president. This is the best of times.

in the short term a key level of support in the stock market is about

12850 (which is the august low) if the market drops below that this week, it may not be improving any time soon

My friends, my friends, is this a time to worry and be negative? Of course not. It is a time of change, yes, but change is good and change is where the real money is to be made. Don’t sit on the sidelines and wait for opportunities to buy stocks cheap. Instead, short sell the stocks on the way down and then buy them up cheap for a quick trade of the bounce.

The market is crashing (not correcting)
Iran is making nukes
China is building its military
Pakistan is becoming a dictatorship

But does all this get me down! No! Instead, I say “Wahoo!” not “Boohoo.” A seasoned investor looks at the market at any given time and says to himself, “Who is winning?” And “Who is losing?” Change equals opportunity, not a time for crying over spilt milk.

I say “Be a Man!” and stop doomsdaying over the markets and start looking for opportunities. Should you trade over to peso’s for the short term and then trade back into dollars for a quick jump? Should you short sell the retailers this fall expecting bad Christmas numbers only to buy up the exporters in January when they forecast strong international sales for next year? Should you be ready to buy defense stocks hoping for a jump after Israel attacks Iran?

These times are times for massive opportunities my friends. And for heavens sake, don’t discount the future explosion that we are about to see in robotics all around the world. Times may be rough up ahead, that is all but certain. But if you force yourself not to jump into the great opportunities that are just around the corner then you only have yourself to blame.

Help you fellow conspiracy theorist financial trader out will ya! What opportunities do you see to make money in these changing times?

Little Old Ladies of Interest
© November, 2007
Sean T. Taeschner, M.Ed.

A LESSON ON INTEREST

I had the privilege of working as a “Bankster” between September of 1990 and February of 1999 in Seattle, Washington, U.S.A.
My “banking career” began soon after leaving graduate school in 1989 at the University of Washington, exiting in order to marry my family’s foreign exchange student from Japan. I was twenty-five-years of age. At the time of writing this article I had just turned forty-three years of age.

My first job as a “Bankster” began at Security Pacific Bank of Washington in Ballard, a suburb of Seattle. I began as a drive-up teller and eventually worked my way into working as a lobby teller.
During this nine-month experience I made acquaintances with many of my customers, conversing with them while working their deposits and withdrawals. I learned to read their balance sheets, soon discovering that many of the elderly retirees were living off of nest eggs ranging from $100,000.00 to $1,000,000.00, many after having sold their homes and/or other assets. The retirees were living off of the interest checks made from the savings accounts in our bank. Interest-income checks ranged anywhere from $800.00 to $4,000.00. By 1990 standards, that would be equivalent to two full-time incomes for a married couple in 2007 dollars. Not bad for retiring! Our bank was paying between 9 and 18 percent interest on savings accounts. Loosely translated, that meant that our bank was paying the retirees anywhere from nine to eighteen-cents for each dollar we were “borrowing” from each month. (Side Note: Our bank would then use those funds to loan to other customers as loans. These loans were usually at higher interest rates, usually between nine and twenty-tine percent, depending upon their credit history and length of time in a steady job. Banks, I would later discover, would always charge enough interest on car, home, and credit cards in order to pay back the savings and checking account interest of their customers, cover potential loan defaults, and still come out ahead with a small margin of profit. What I later discovered in automotive and residential lending, was that banks and finance companies would jack up interest rates on good customers and use the difference to loan to customers with poorer credit and still make a profit. The hidden and not talked about monies also made by banks came from payments from dealers and finance companies on monies loaned for short and long periods of time and kickbacks from factories for the same. That was a three-way profit! Not bad! Or, was it? Let’s move on.)

In early 1991 the United States of America entered into about a five-year economic recession. Retirees began seeing the interest rates on their savings accounts drop from highs of nine to eighteen percent down to the low five and six percentage rates. What I began hearing at the teller window were complaints of retirees receiving smaller checks to live off of. Suddenly, their standard of living began collapsing. Grandma was suddenly realizing that the money might not be there to pay the rent. Or, her alternative was to consider going back to work at age seventy to be a waitress at Denny’s Restaurant.
It was not good.

Chatter and rumor had it that stock brokers smelled opportunity. The retirees spoke of placing their monies in government savings bonds. This would lock up their savings for several months or years but draw higher interest that our bank could offer them in annual certificates of deposit. Suddenly, a few of our bank loan officers could not make their sales numbers out front as “cross sellers” and lost their jobs. They could not meet their quotas. I began to understand the “selling relationship” as two-sided and sometimes as “victimizing” both the customer and the employee. What took years to develop as a banking relationship with customers….a certain level of competent and meaningful trust…often on a handshake, was now eroding in seconds before my very eyes.

Grannies began telling me that handsome young stockbrokers offered an alternative for them. They could transfer their savings bonds into the stock market in the form of new bonds (later known as “junk bonds” or “derivatives) that would pay higher rates of interest than banks. Many were promised higher rates of interest returns in the 26-35% range, and some were even higher than that. It depended upon the high-stakes poker game risks that “investors” were willing to put into the game that was being painted as “the surest thing in town.” Retirees began to see huge losses and a guy named Michael Milken, the Junk Bond King, went to prison for a very long time. He was from Wall Street. White-collar crime had launched a new name and a surge of “predatory lending” had begun.

THE HIGH TECH SAVIORS

Grannies began to panic. They wanted their money back or simply out of the high-stakes world of junk bonds. The same stockbrokers wooed them with tea and cookies and assured them with the finesse of grandsons they could trust, that all would be okay. City and county municipal bonds (many were not told that bonds were tied to the U.S. Stock Market or monies could not be returned to investors for several years. Money would be tied up and retirees would “just have to wait” to cash the bonds in) were a sure thing of safety. The U.S. Stock Market was still available for those who might consider riskier “investments” in the “technology” sector…cell phones, computers, and “the latest.” The high-tech boom of the Dot-coms was beginning. (This would later become the “Dot-gone” or Dot-Bomb” Bust of 2000.)
Grannies dumped millions into the high-tech stocks. Many began seeing high returns and the wave was heading for the beach….with a might crash to come.


THE DOT-GONE-BOMB OF 2000

In March of 2000 there began one of the largest losses ever on the U.S. Stock Market. Within an eighteen-month period over eight trillion dollars was lost in the “high-tech” sector on Wall Street. Grannies who wee smart enough not to trust these “smooth grandsons” of the sales world began withdrawing from stocks as fast as they could. The meltdown was on. Again, their interest returns and “dividend reinvestments” were shrinking like clams at high tide.
Along came the silver-gray suits saviors of real estate. They were the new captains of industry offering the ultimate safety net for investments: U.S. Real Estate. Grandma could place her assets in a tangible commodity that was certain to offer safety. Properties could, after-all, be rented out through property management companies and repairmen could keep them up. And, it worked for a while.
Soon, the word spread that newly wed couples and new singles could get into condo and home “conversions” and begin buying into these more conservative, long-term and safe investments!

THE BUY-IT, FIX-IT, & FLIP-IT CRAZE

I was disgusted with the corruption I had witnessed and took part in during my banking career. I made the decision to leave banking in 1999. I decided to become a residential remodeler and handyman.

I begin with a story about a man named “Mike.”

URGENT CONSUMER WARNING:
I was at the Northwest Territorial Mint last Wednesday at 4PM in Auburn, Washington. The lady there who was filling my order for silver bullion stated, "Today has been just crazy. Gold hit $834.00 per ounce and silver topped out at $15.38 per ounce (11/07/2007). I have not been able to get back to my regular job here. My work is still sitting on my desk and I have no idea when I can get back to it. The orders are coming in like crazy. The phones are ringing off the hook. Do you mind if I sell you scratched rounds, because we are running out quickly."
I told her to go ahead. (I would take anything at that point).
Folks...the American people are waking up and making a run on the real money vaults...the local mints.
Don't wait until your Federal Reserve Monopoly money is being used as shredded insulation.

www.bloomberg.com...

Woohooo!

The world is freaking out. Our American Dollar and our insane trade deficit was apparently financing the entire world it seems. Guess what! I think that the dollar should keep falling. Those b-words overseas deserve a complete meltdown of their economies. We deserve for smart companies to start building factories again here in America.

France threatens a trade war if our administration keeps letting the dollar fall. What a load of horse crap. Hey France! Your insane import tariffs against American goods have been tantamount to a trade war for decades! The only difference now is that it isn’t one sided in your favor. That can also go for the rest of the world as well.

Let me tell you folks, if you really want a trade war with the U.S. then I hope for damn sure that it happens because there has been a trade war against us for almost 50 years and it's about damn time that we started fighting back.

It seems that the rest of the world has already spent the money that they thought that they would get from U.S. consumers. Ha Ha, that’s a socialist for you, spending other people’s money before they even have it in the bank.

My friends we are in for a global stock market meltdown. May God help us all.


[edit on 12-11-2007 by Hot_Wings]

[edit on 12-11-2007 by Hot_Wings]

Edit for headline:
Talk of worst recession since 1930's!
www.nysun.com.... I only have two crates of can goods but I do have a bunch of ammo. Every payday I am going to spend a few hundred on food. I hope I have time.



[edit on 12-11-2007 by Perplexed]