just posted:
The dark side of space disaster theories
www.thespacereview.com...
by James Oberg
The Space Review
Monday, January 21, 2008
Space disasters attract so much public attention and often involve such complex and subtle sequences of events that there’s an entire Internet
literature of “crackpot causes” on par with JFK assassination myths. To the degree that innovative analysis is often critical to
reconstructing—from partial and often garbled evidence—a shocking causal sequence leading from goodness to disaster, the initial investigation
period demands that critical judgment be held somewhat in check so as not to discourage imagination.
However, once a logical reconstruction gels, is tested, and then is ultimately verified by being implemented and hence reducing future flight hazards,
that official explanation achieves a substantial level of authenticity. But not to everyone’s satisfaction, apparently, as a search of
still-thriving non-traditional explanations of the Apollo 1 fire, the Apollo 13 breakdown, the Challenger disintegration, and the Columbia
catastrophe, whose fifth anniversary now approaches.
For example, in the case of Columbia, YouTube is full of videos from self-styled experts still convinced a freak bolt of ionospheric lightning
crippled the spaceship. A famous photograph supposedly shows that bolt, even though space experts have long been satisfied that the bizarre image was
merely the result of camera jiggle during a time-lapse exposure.
Apart from the comic relief value of such crackpot ideas, there’s a darker aspect of this kind of cultural pathology, just as there are serious
analyses pointing to the socially toxic effects of the JFK assassination “alternate theories”. For spaceflight, being distracted by the wrong
cause means being tempted by the wrong fix. That’s never amusing, and often can be expensive.
As an egregious “bad example” of wrong causes, a recent book (Dark Mission, by Richard Hoagland and Michael Bara) spent a lot of time muddying the
waters over a series of NASA Mars mission failures in the 1990s. This isn’t just some remote corner of an intellectual ghetto on the Internet—the
book came within one tick mark of making it onto the New York Times bestsellers list for paperback non-fiction (it reached #21 nationwide). So as an
exercise in cultural self-defense and in proselytizing sound “space safety” history, here is a detailed look at the claims, the delusions, and the
errors in that book’s treatment of these space accidents.