One of the arguments as to why there has been no disclosure is pretty simple. They don't know 'enough'.
Scenario #1 Not -sure- they are Extraterrestrial
Let's say we know there are incursions, but we are not -sure- they are Extraterrestrial
(say, they -know- they are not earthly; Russians,
etc.). Then it makes sense not to disclose. I mean, seriously, would you want your gubmint saying 'they're here' if they aren't sure. It's
actually an irresponsible act.
Scenario #2 They don't know the home world of the "pilots/occupants"
They know the incursions are non-terrestrial, but they don't know the home world of the "pilots/occupants"
. Experts might give similar
theories as a layperson - ET, inner-Earth, extra-Dimensional, future Earthings.
Scenario #3 They don't want the ET to know that WE know
They know the incursions are Extra-terrestrial, i.e., from outer space, because they tracked a craft from out beyond, oh, say the orbit of Mars. They
don't disclose because they don't want the ET to know that WE know
they are being tracked. This kinda makes sense from the military/National
Sec. point of view.
Scenario #4 They have to admit they can't protect us
We know ET is here, they know we know. But we don't know their intent, nor where they are from. Knowing it could be more destabilizing the less they
know (i.e., they have to admit they can't protect us
), they decide not to disclose until they know more. Plus ET isn't really threatening us,
so there's no pressure on that front to disclose too soon.
Other scenarios Non-living; Ephemeral; Extreme high tech
Robots probes, ultra-dimensional probes or other 'ephemeral' types of incursions (iow, no concrete evidence, even if circumstantial evidence - for
ex: the non-terrestrial merely -tells- us they are from the future/other dimension). Finally the 'probes' could be so advanced that we're not able
to tell what they are, probes, living, non-living, just that they are not earthly but info is extremely hard to acquire.
You could really keep going with several more.
The point is, there's really only one scenario that it would be safe to disclose
. That would be the one where:
1. They know we know;
2. We know where they are from;
3. We have some real assurances of their non-hostile intent.
So when you think about it, arguably
there's really a fairly narrow set of circumstances under which a responsible gubmint should or would
tell their citizens.
Now, I agree if ET really is abducting people they should make the leap and let people know.
The way to do it is by a somewhat gradual means.
In the best case scenario:
1. Disclose that we've had communications from a distant star system;
2. Soon after, disclose what they've said or their intent (if any);
3. Disclose that they're going to send representatives;
4. Disclose that they'll be here next month.
[edit on 29-10-2007 by Badge01]