US plans offensive in Pakistan

The entry of US forces into the tribal areas of Pakistan seems to open up a new chapter in the hunt for Osama, will this lead to his capture just before the presidential elections here in the US. A victory such as this could assure Bush's re-election.


The Bush administration is preparing an offensive that would reach inside Pakistan with the goal of destroying Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network.
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Referred to in internal Pentagon messages as the "spring offensive," the operation would be driven by certain undisclosed events in Pakistan and across the region, sources said. A source familiar with details of the plan said this is "not like a contingency plan for North Korea, something that sits on a shelf. This planning is like planning for Iraq. They want this plan to be executable, now."

An operation into Pakistan would present extraordinary risks geopoliticaly if not carried out in a short, sharp and limited campaign.

How long have we been "destroying" Al Quaeda now? First its "they are in shambles, running scare" then its "we must crush them" then back again. Though it wouldnt suprise me if they 'turned up' ole Osama somewhere in Pakisatan right in the final weeks before the election, just enough to dope up voters and the electoral college.

Originally posted by alternateheaven
How long have we been "destroying" Al Quaeda now? First its "they are in shambles, running scare" then its "we must crush them" then back again. Though it wouldnt suprise me if they 'turned up' ole Osama somewhere in Pakisatan right in the final weeks before the election, just enough to dope up voters and the electoral college.

AH this might interest you,

26 Jan 2004

Al-Qaeda 70 Percent Gone But Next Generation a Threat

By Jeremy Zakis, ERRI Analyst

UNITED STATES: U.S. Department of State spokesman Cofer Black said that Al-Qaeda's days were numbered and they were being hunted down worldwide. He went
so far as to say that based on U.S. intelligence community estimates that about 70 percent of the Al-Qaeda organization has been neutralized. But, other analysts have a more sobering view on the situation.

During an interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), Black said the war on terror had made the most significant gains against Al-Qaeda in the Middle East where a number of leaders have been arrested and training camps made inoperable.

Other U.S. intelligence official said that Al-Qaeda had lost much of its attack capabilities and was now relying on smaller Islamic groups based in Southeast Asia and North Africa to carry out its operations.

Emergency Reponse and Research Institute (ERRI) CEO and Chief Analyst Clark Staten said that despite the promising news, it was unlikely Al-Qaeda would be completely eliminated anytime in the near future.

"I do agree with Mr. Black that we are going to see (or already have seen) a 'next generation' of Al-Qaeda and they will be younger and less experienced," Staten said.

"But, they will also be religious zealots, educated since birth for Jihad... we are making
progress, but are far from achieving the larger goals," he added.

The intelligence community believes that Al-Qaeda was at its strongest in mid-2001 with thousands of recruits trained in Afghanistan and were sent abroad to act as agents and members of sleeper cells. Officials say Al-Qaeda will now continue as a much weaker organization and focus largely on Saudi Arabia, the Horn of Africa and seek to consolidate terrorist cells in Iran.
www.emergency.com...

That is rather interesting, and quite true. Terrorism cant ever be completely wiped out, as long as the human race exists. As for future generations becoming terrorists, its not suprising, look at the offers made to the famalies of suicide bombers, to a young starving child who only wants to help thier parents and family, x ammount of money is better than 0 and no food. Probably the best way to combat terroism would be to try to get economic stability and properity to regions that are hot-spots of terrorism. Without famine and poor living conditions, there are a few less reasons to become a terrorist or suicide-bomber. Unfortunately the political and religious motivations will always be around.

You can't get the terrorism out there without giving those people new perspectives and leave them poor and alone.

I will quote a Pakistani: "I lived in north of pakistan, no people have real jobs, those who have are wealthy and people are lazy, I was lazy as well. You either stay there in boredom or do something. The religious fanatics always had work, money and they had at least something to do."

Becoming terrorists because you are bored - but quite plausible. When I think what shiat I have done as kid when me and friends were together and bored...okay no plane highjacking though

[Edited on 28-1-2004 by shoo]

With such a poor and unemployed population influenced by religious fanaticism, given that it is very rough terrain it seems we could run into more trouble than we bargained for - besides could this become the fuse that lights the bomb of islamic revolution in Pakistan. Imagine if this operation goes to hell and the fanatics take control - then there would be no doubt about al Qa'ida having the bomb. I think the Pakastanis should buck up and do this operation internally after cleaning out al Qa'ide sympathisers in their own government - to do otherwise has a huge risk.
As much as I would like to see Osama in custody I'm not at all sure this is the way to go yet.