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Originally posted by LDragonFire
I do believe peak oil has happened, and the life we all know will be a thing of the past in the very near future.
I haven't done anything to prepare for it, have you?
The end of cheap oil, will drastically change the world, but it's hard to gauge just how fast this change will occur.
Originally posted by mel1962
Now add these items for food for thought:
1) Production unable to ramp up on price increase, production peaked in July/August 2006 because of a price spike over $75.
Now oil is over $90 and if we are in peak oil I expect a similiar spike in production.
Unfortunately data is only out for July 2007. I will continue to watch data to see if the "benchmark" is surpassed, if so it should happen in between August to November 2007.
According to the IEA, world production of total liquids in October increased by 1.4 million b/d from September resulting in total world liquids production of 86.5 million b/d, -- the all time high liquids production. Many analysts are skeptical of this number and want to await confirmation from other sources.
www.energybulletin.net...
Only time will tell, but the long term price trends indicate supply is not keeping up with demand. International tensions are only a small part of this price rise,
Price Link
2) Matt Simmons says that the Saudi Aramco may miss its production goal!
Matt Simmons
3) War drums beating (Iran - US / Turkey - Iraq) metal prices through reaching all time highs.
I think the hand writting is on the wall if you want to read it!
Originally posted by mel1962
I am constantly amazed, how so many on ATS want to put their heads in the sand on the issue of Peak Oil, but we can discuss aliens, moon bases, 9/11 crap!
Unbelievable, sometimes the truth is more scarry than any far out theory!
Not to say that everything else is not entertaining, I just feel that the ATS masses like to ignore real issues and surrond themselves in some kind of fantasy land.
Believe me, I find UFO's, JFK, Area 51 very interesting, but I am actually worried about this issue!
I feel like Paul Revere, but no one is listening!
Originally posted by mel1962
If prices go up, production goes up,
the peak is still July '06 at the time oil was $75 now its over $90. Production has not been able to ramp up,
I appreciate your comments but your proof and examply are not apples to apples!
Peak Oil
Originally posted by mel1962
Starman that is my sentiments, I check EIA supply data and August 2007 came in at 83,920, nearly 1.5 million off the "peak" in July '06!
The next update will be in early December for September's Data!
I think alot of people think something is wrong, put they can't quite put there finger on it.
I believe Dick Cheney knows about peak oil and I believe we as a country our blocking oil production in this country because we want OPEC and others to pump themselves dry while we have a more valuable supply like ANWAR!
Originally posted by mel1962
Here is some further evidence that peak may have happened in July 2006, see chart, most producers had larger production in '06 versus '07, significant decline is in Saudi Production!
Crude Oil Production by Selected Country
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) -- Saudi Arabia, which already has aggressively shaved its oil output in a battle to shore up prices, will reduce production by another 158,000 barrels per day beginning Thursday and more cuts are on the way, according to a media report.
The Saudi cut is seen as an aggressive move to keep the price of the U.S. benchmark crude above $55 a barrel, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday in its online edition, quoting Roger Diwan, an analyst at PFC Energy, a Washington industry consultancy.
The latest cut means Saudi Arabia will have reduced production by about 1 million barrels per day in the past six months, The Journal said, citing an unnamed senior Saudi oil official.
money.cnn.com...
Saudi Arabia, which already has aggressively shaved its oil output in a battle to shore up prices, is tightening its spigots further this week.
A senior Saudi oil official said yesterday the kingdom had advised its customers of the impending 158,000 barrel-a-day cut, which takes effect Feb. 1. The reductions, part of a broader campaign by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, are intended to shrink inventories of oil that had ballooned last year as demand growth for petroleum faltered.
"After these cuts, our oil production will have declined by about one million barrels a day since last summer," said the senior Saudi oil official.
online.wsj.com...
Saudi Arabia's crude oil production capacity has reached 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd), the country's state oil company Saudi Aramco announced Monday.
The company is sparing no efforts to raise its oil production to meet the market demand, said Armaco's Mid-Year Accountability Report.
The Khursaniyah field is expected to start operations in December 2007, with a capacity of 500,000 bpd of Arabian light crude, said the report, noting the company will boost its exploration of non-associated gas fields.
english.peopledaily.com.cn...
Saudi Arabia will continue to maintain surplus crude production capacity of 2 million b/d and is working on its plans to achieve 12.5 million b/d of total capacity by 2009, Naimi said. The country is producing close to 9 million b/d currently. He also said Saudi Arabia would soon add 500,000 b/d of light crude production capacity.
To back up the Oil Minister, Saudi ARAMCO’s CEO, Abdullah Jum’ah, said in a speech that more than 30 years of doomsday forecasts have been put forward about the petroleum industry and have since been proven false. He offered a statistical basis for his argument that forecasts for the ultimate recovery of conventional oil resources have actually increased over time. Addressing the 20th Congress of the World Energy Council, Jum’ah “demonstrated” that there will be enough conventional and non-conventional liquid energy resources for decades to come.
energybulletin.net...
It also appears that consumption has gone down from last year, no doubt a lack of supply?
Petroleum Consumption in OECD Countries
Last week started with falling oil prices based on rumors the Saudi’s would push for a second 500,000 b/d increase in OPEC production at the summit meeting. This was followed on Tuesday by a new IEA forecast that their previously forecasted increase in world oil demand would be reduced by 500,000 b/d this quarter and 300,000 b/d in 2008 because of higher prices and slower economic growth.
energybulletin.net...
Originally posted by mel1962
I just checked the monthly update on the EIA site and July '06 continues to be the peak!
According to the IEA, world production of total liquids in October increased by 1.4 million b/d from September resulting in total world liquids production of 86.5 million b/d, -- the all time high liquids production. Many analysts are skeptical of this number and want to await confirmation from other sources.
www.energybulletin.net...
The preliminary estimate for September is almost 1 million over August in '07, it will be interesting to see October, November and December. September is still 1/2 million short of the peak and the yearly average is about 200,000 barrels under 2006. I have feeling they will not break the peak month of July '06!
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental Organization, created at the Baghdad Conference on September 10–14, 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. The five Founding Members were later joined by nine other Members: Qatar (1961); Indonesia (1962); Socialist Peoples Libyan Arab Jamahiriya (1962); United Arab Emirates (1967); Algeria (1969); Nigeria (1971); Ecuador (1973) – suspended its membership from December 1992-December 2007; Angola (2007) and Gabon (1975–1994). OPEC had its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, in the first five years of its existence. This was moved to Vienna, Austria, on September 1, 1965.
SOURCE
Originally posted by mel1962
I am not a predictor of future events, the "feelings" are part of what my gut is telling me and part of what is happening with the oil markets!
As far as EIA and IEA data they seem to differ in amounts, so I am not sure they are comparing apples to apples.
I have been using the EIA number and if you notice it gets updated, because the latest month is usually a preliminary estimate and will be updated next month to an estimate and than a final number.
I believe the IEA and EIA are depicting an increase in September because of world demand its just the numbers are different. IEA latest Oil Market Report still shows 3qt '06 as the peak.
Oil Market Report
1b.) Profanity: You will not use profanity in our forums, and will neither post with language or content that is obscene, sexually oriented, or sexually suggestive nor link to sites that contain such content.
2005 August 84,847
2005 September 84,151
2005 October 84,146
2005 November 84,894
2005 December 84,702