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Peak Oil Happened in July, 2006 its confirmed!

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posted on Dec, 6 2007 @ 05:24 AM
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Sastistics I love em!! You basically start with the answer you want and work back from there to make everything fit. Wonderful game. And no peak oil production was in 06 but we don't really know when peak oil is or was or will be.

mikell



posted on Dec, 6 2007 @ 05:32 AM
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Originally posted by LDragonFire
I do believe peak oil has happened, and the life we all know will be a thing of the past in the very near future.


But what has 'belief' got to do with this subject matter?


I haven't done anything to prepare for it, have you?


I tend to try find out what at least loosely corresponds with observation before i 'prepare'.


The end of cheap oil, will drastically change the world, but it's hard to gauge just how fast this change will occur.


How will more expensive oil 'drastically' change the world when we already have hundreds of millions that are starving? 'Drastically' hardly works in this context and we should find words that better describe the conditions that will lead to additional hundreds of millions of abject poor that will replace those the many millions that could get no poorer or more malnourished and thus simply died.

Stellar



posted on Dec, 6 2007 @ 05:37 AM
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What better myth than scarcity as in the Diamond market to reinforce higher oil prices. What the big boys will not tell you is that the real Diamond price is paste, and that oil is highly abundant. Consider all the capped wells? Why is that? The companies are engaged in controlled output.

What reinforces that myth? "Peak Oil," makes people think we are running out of it. The facts are that the controlled output is "running out," of cheaply produced oil. Its controlled output consists of wells it does not currently cap, compared with oil assessments of less cheaply obtained oil, shale from tar sands, and so forth.

Reverend Lindsey wrote a book entitled The Energy Non Crisis, that states the case for Peak Oil being a controlled output myth very well.



posted on Dec, 6 2007 @ 02:25 PM
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Originally posted by mel1962
Now add these items for food for thought:


But it's not food?


1) Production unable to ramp up on price increase, production peaked in July/August 2006 because of a price spike over $75.


Why should production be ramped up when there is no demand increase? How many consumers had to cut back their oil usage due to such high prices? Is the US government still filling the strategic reserves and has the Chinese and Japanese finished yet? How many attacks on how much oil infrastructure happened around that period?


Now oil is over $90 and if we are in peak oil I expect a similiar spike in production.


Why do you expect anything other than a peak in production when demand declines due to high prices and is intrerupted in so many places due to invasions and illegal occupations?


Unfortunately data is only out for July 2007. I will continue to watch data to see if the "benchmark" is surpassed, if so it should happen in between August to November 2007.


Why have you decided that to be some kind of benchmark?


According to the IEA, world production of total liquids in October increased by 1.4 million b/d from September resulting in total world liquids production of 86.5 million b/d, -- the all time high liquids production. Many analysts are skeptical of this number and want to await confirmation from other sources.

www.energybulletin.net...


And since i have no reason to be suspicious of those numbers you need to tell me why i should not believe them.


Only time will tell, but the long term price trends indicate supply is not keeping up with demand. International tensions are only a small part of this price rise,


Why have you presumed that the rising prices are based on fundamentals when so many 'experts' will tell you that such can not explain these fast rising prices? Why don't the 'experts' know and why have you chosen to believe the dissidents? What happens when the world's oil is largely traded in the USD which is rapidly losing value due to inflation?


Price Link

2) Matt Simmons says that the Saudi Aramco may miss its production goal!

Matt Simmons


Why do you believe Matt Simmons who is after all a investment banker who makes money when his prophecies ( and they are no more) are believed?

Why believe investment bankers about anything? As things stand i can point you to plenty of articles where his 'monkey business' has been exposed and it's clear to at least me that he really will say anything to scare people into paying more for oil.


3) War drums beating (Iran - US / Turkey - Iraq) metal prices through reaching all time highs.


What does high metal prices ( massive construction projects all over the world? ) have to do with anything? Why is all the war drums reason to suspect that oil is running out instead of just evidence that oil resources can not be properly exploited due to all of it? How much oil production did the world lose in the last three years due to the American occupation of Iraq after that ten years of sanctions?


I think the hand writting is on the wall if you want to read it!


The writing is always on the wall for the doomers as they have seen it there for the last thirty years with nothing coming of it. I was NOT born yesterday and you will find that people who can read some history wont be so easily fooled by the ramblings of the peakers.


Originally posted by mel1962
I am constantly amazed, how so many on ATS want to put their heads in the sand on the issue of Peak Oil, but we can discuss aliens, moon bases, 9/11 crap!


I am constantly amazed that so many people who should stick to discussing Aliens, moon bases and 9-11 get involved in substantive discussions on issues they have not studied.


Unbelievable, sometimes the truth is more scarry than any far out theory!


The truth IS scarier as the volume of oil still in the ground means that we can continue along our current polluting ways for probably another century or two!


Not to say that everything else is not entertaining, I just feel that the ATS masses like to ignore real issues and surrond themselves in some kind of fantasy land.


Indeed and i keep wondering why people buy into the peak freak propaganda.


Believe me, I find UFO's, JFK, Area 51 very interesting, but I am actually worried about this issue!


There is certainly much to worry about but unless you can point out to us why we should suddenly start believing the peak freaks given their terrible prediction records you will probably get ignored.


I feel like Paul Revere, but no one is listening!


The peak crowd do wish to present a messianic front but given their ideas for 'culling' the world population i doubt we should consider them to have our best interest in mind.


Originally posted by mel1962
If prices go up, production goes up,


Actually if prices go up and the producers are sufficiently organized they are likely to reduce production to increase competition for resources and thus prices. That's after all what supply and demand dictates!


the peak is still July '06 at the time oil was $75 now its over $90. Production has not been able to ramp up,


Production has in fact increased and there is simply no way that the worlds oil can become so scarce in the span of ten years that oil prices go from 8 USD to 90 USD. To even suggest that such a rise could have anything to do with market fundamentals is admitting that you do not know anything about the speculative nature of modern commodity markets.


I appreciate your comments but your proof and examply are not apples to apples!

Peak Oil



Originally posted by mel1962
Starman that is my sentiments, I check EIA supply data and August 2007 came in at 83,920, nearly 1.5 million off the "peak" in July '06!


The next update will be in early December for September's Data!


Sure and according to the numbers there goes another peak theory/date despite the massive increases in prices since then. It's surprising that demand has stayed right up there despite these high prices and i can assure you that they it would have been WAY up if prices were at fair levels and the developing world could afford it..


I think alot of people think something is wrong, put they can't quite put there finger on it.


Sure they know something is wrong when the prices keep going up and while the oil companies maintains that there is still plenty of oil they know they wont be believed giving the peak oil people plenty to work with. People CAN put their finger on who's to blame , exxon mobil/shell but what are they to do when so called experts tell them that oil is in fact running out and that they should not believe the oil companies, which people generally know not to believe, when they say it's plentiful? Why should average people arrive at the truth when you could not?


I believe Dick Cheney knows about peak oil and I believe we as a country our blocking oil production in this country because we want OPEC and others to pump themselves dry while we have a more valuable supply like ANWAR!


Dick Cheney knows that oil is exceedingly plentiful and that he must do everything in his power to create crissis that will result in less oil production everywhere. OPEC is not going to be 'pumped dry any decade ( or century in my opinion) soon and the US has reserves on the US mainland and along the coast that could probably supply in it's demand for a hundred years.


Originally posted by mel1962
Here is some further evidence that peak may have happened in July 2006, see chart, most producers had larger production in '06 versus '07, significant decline is in Saudi Production!


Crude Oil Production by Selected Country


And why presume a 'peak'? Are you trying to be fashionable?


SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) -- Saudi Arabia, which already has aggressively shaved its oil output in a battle to shore up prices, will reduce production by another 158,000 barrels per day beginning Thursday and more cuts are on the way, according to a media report.

The Saudi cut is seen as an aggressive move to keep the price of the U.S. benchmark crude above $55 a barrel, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday in its online edition, quoting Roger Diwan, an analyst at PFC Energy, a Washington industry consultancy.

The latest cut means Saudi Arabia will have reduced production by about 1 million barrels per day in the past six months, The Journal said, citing an unnamed senior Saudi oil official.

money.cnn.com...



Saudi Arabia, which already has aggressively shaved its oil output in a battle to shore up prices, is tightening its spigots further this week.

A senior Saudi oil official said yesterday the kingdom had advised its customers of the impending 158,000 barrel-a-day cut, which takes effect Feb. 1. The reductions, part of a broader campaign by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, are intended to shrink inventories of oil that had ballooned last year as demand growth for petroleum faltered.

"After these cuts, our oil production will have declined by about one million barrels a day since last summer," said the senior Saudi oil official.

online.wsj.com...


So it's NOT due to a lack of capacity but simply one of those so called 'free market forces' at work.

Continued

[edit on 6-12-2007 by StellarX]



posted on Dec, 6 2007 @ 02:26 PM
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Saudi Arabia's crude oil production capacity has reached 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd), the country's state oil company Saudi Aramco announced Monday.

The company is sparing no efforts to raise its oil production to meet the market demand, said Armaco's Mid-Year Accountability Report.

The Khursaniyah field is expected to start operations in December 2007, with a capacity of 500,000 bpd of Arabian light crude, said the report, noting the company will boost its exploration of non-associated gas fields.

english.peopledaily.com.cn...



Saudi Arabia will continue to maintain surplus crude production capacity of 2 million b/d and is working on its plans to achieve 12.5 million b/d of total capacity by 2009, Naimi said. The country is producing close to 9 million b/d currently. He also said Saudi Arabia would soon add 500,000 b/d of light crude production capacity.

To back up the Oil Minister, Saudi ARAMCO’s CEO, Abdullah Jum’ah, said in a speech that more than 30 years of doomsday forecasts have been put forward about the petroleum industry and have since been proven false. He offered a statistical basis for his argument that forecasts for the ultimate recovery of conventional oil resources have actually increased over time. Addressing the 20th Congress of the World Energy Council, Jum’ah “demonstrated” that there will be enough conventional and non-conventional liquid energy resources for decades to come.

energybulletin.net...


So there are in fact PLENTY of oil in even the over exploited Saudi Arabia!


It also appears that consumption has gone down from last year, no doubt a lack of supply?


Petroleum Consumption in OECD Countries


You do not think rising prices will reduce demand as people cut back on driving and industry does it's best to further enhance efficiency standards?


Last week started with falling oil prices based on rumors the Saudi’s would push for a second 500,000 b/d increase in OPEC production at the summit meeting. This was followed on Tuesday by a new IEA forecast that their previously forecasted increase in world oil demand would be reduced by 500,000 b/d this quarter and 300,000 b/d in 2008 because of higher prices and slower economic growth.

energybulletin.net...


For someone who talks about 'market forces' you do seem to be overtly occupied with trying to create shortages by tying up your cart infront of the horse. Raised prices comes first and then the slowing economic growth and demand follows; it does not work the other way round and it since it's been established that there are in fact sufficient oil on the market to fill all REGULAR orders ( not various national strategic reserves and private cache's).

Stellar



posted on Dec, 12 2007 @ 09:55 PM
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If it's true that access to enormous oil reserves like the one under Alaska's Gull Island (enough oil for the US to live off of for the next 200 years) is being restricted...then Peak Oil is a myth.



posted on Dec, 15 2007 @ 09:16 AM
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I just checked the monthly update on the EIA site and July '06 continues to be the peak!

2006 January 84,560
February 84,501
March 84,060
April 84,417
May 84,241
June 84,128
July 85,467
August 85,197
September 84,745
October 85,046
November 84,576
December 84,205
2006 Average 84,597

2007 January E 84,113
February E 84,338
March E 84,083
April E 84,594
May E 84,280
June E 84,430
July E 84,866
August E 83,888
September PE 84,929
9 Month Avg 84,389

The preliminary estimate for September is almost 1 million over August in '07, it will be interesting to see October, November and December. September is still 1/2 million short of the peak and the yearly average is about 200,000 barrels under 2006. I have feeling they will not break the peak month of July '06!



posted on Dec, 16 2007 @ 10:36 AM
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Originally posted by mel1962
I just checked the monthly update on the EIA site and July '06 continues to be the peak!


Then you are still not reading properly!


According to the IEA, world production of total liquids in October increased by 1.4 million b/d from September resulting in total world liquids production of 86.5 million b/d, -- the all time high liquids production. Many analysts are skeptical of this number and want to await confirmation from other sources.

www.energybulletin.net...



The preliminary estimate for September is almost 1 million over August in '07, it will be interesting to see October, November and December. September is still 1/2 million short of the peak and the yearly average is about 200,000 barrels under 2006. I have feeling they will not break the peak month of July '06!


Why do we need our 'feelings' when we do have data to work with and more importantly why do your 'feelings' want to peak?

Stellar


[edit on 16-12-2007 by StellarX]



posted on Dec, 16 2007 @ 10:40 AM
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reply to post by StellarX
 


I am not a predictor of future events, the "feelings" are part of what my gut is telling me and part of what is happening with the oil markets!

As far as EIA and IEA data they seem to differ in amounts, so I am not sure they are comparing apples to apples.

I have been using the EIA number and if you notice it gets updated, because the latest month is usually a preliminary estimate and will be updated next month to an estimate and than a final number. I believe the IEA and EIA are depicting an increase in September because of world demand its just the numbers are different. IEA latest Oil Market Report still shows 3qt '06 as the peak.

Oil Market Report





[edit on 12/16/07 by mel1962]



posted on Dec, 16 2007 @ 10:50 AM
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Peak oil is not actually real...people see oil prices spiking and they automatically
consider that our oil supplies are running short. I got news for you guys, it is not about the peak, it is about politics. If you guys remember in the 1970's the oil cost was about $2.00/L, and that was compliments of OPEC. The prices dropped because Iraq and Iran went to war and started to undercut each other.
U.S. is not on OPEC's good side.




The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental Organization, created at the Baghdad Conference on September 10–14, 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. The five Founding Members were later joined by nine other Members: Qatar (1961); Indonesia (1962); Socialist Peoples Libyan Arab Jamahiriya (1962); United Arab Emirates (1967); Algeria (1969); Nigeria (1971); Ecuador (1973) – suspended its membership from December 1992-December 2007; Angola (2007) and Gabon (1975–1994). OPEC had its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, in the first five years of its existence. This was moved to Vienna, Austria, on September 1, 1965.
SOURCE


As you can see OPEC was created by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Iran, and Venezuela are totally against the US, furthermore the Saudi Arabia-US relations are not so good. So unless there is a war within OPEC you will continue to see oil prices rising.



posted on Dec, 16 2007 @ 12:34 PM
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Originally posted by mel1962
I am not a predictor of future events, the "feelings" are part of what my gut is telling me and part of what is happening with the oil markets!


By telling us that oil have peaked you ARE trying to predict the future!


As far as EIA and IEA data they seem to differ in amounts, so I am not sure they are comparing apples to apples.


By how much do they differ and why are you discounting the information i have so far presented?


I have been using the EIA number and if you notice it gets updated, because the latest month is usually a preliminary estimate and will be updated next month to an estimate and than a final number.


So your going to stick to your 'peak' number despite having had the opportunity to change your doom tune?


I believe the IEA and EIA are depicting an increase in September because of world demand its just the numbers are different. IEA latest Oil Market Report still shows 3qt '06 as the peak.

Oil Market Report


And that's probably why you should look at the oil production history numbers and reflect on why we have had temporary declines in the past! Don't be a sucker and aid the peakers in their doom and gloom propaganda!

Stellar



posted on Feb, 19 2008 @ 08:59 AM
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July '06 continues to be the peak, as the new EIA numbers indicate incurrent oil supply report.

July '06 was at 85,467, October '07 preliminary estimate was released at 85,605 last month but the estimate has been revised downward to 85,451.

The preliminary estimate for November '07 was release at 85,360.

In addition, it appears that '06 monthly average of 84,597 may or may not be surpassed in '07 which has a current 11 month average of 84,531.

2006 had 3 months that average over 85k, while 2007 had 2 months average over 85K with 1 month to go, it will be interesting to see next months report.

It appears 2005 will remain the peak year with 84,631, unless there is a major upswing in production in December and/or revision of November 2007.

As far as some of the comments of my doom and gloom, all I can say is I am a optimistic person, but at the same time I want to know what is over the horizon or around the corner. I am not one to stick my head in the ground and believe the babbling bubble heads on the idiot box. My motto is: "Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best" This I am guilty of!


[edit on 2/19/08 by mel1962]


sty

posted on Feb, 19 2008 @ 09:38 AM
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I agree with the ideea that the oil resources must peak at a certain point. However, I think that the peak of 2006-2007 is a political one - not caused by less resources. A fall of 5 % of the oil supply is increasing the price with 50% - or more. So this means MONEY , BIG money . I guess this is why we see oil peak . However, I guess we are not very far from the natural Oil Peak - that should be around 2010-2015.

Sty


sty

posted on Feb, 19 2008 @ 09:38 AM
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Sorry - it posed twice. Had to delete the second !


[edit on 19-2-2008 by sty]



posted on Feb, 19 2008 @ 09:43 AM
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reply to post by sty
 


could be Sty, I am sure some countries our sitting on reserves, like the USA with ANWAR! Apparently Matt Simmons, a leading Peak Oil Expert was one the people that meet secretly with Dick Cheney on National
Energy. I am sure if they wanted to pump ANWAR they could of, instead of using the environmental excuse, IMHO!



posted on Feb, 25 2008 @ 01:35 PM
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It's the End of the World as We know it and I feel FINE :

*[SNIP]*
Moderator note from Terms And Conditions Of Use for Abovetopsecret.com.



1b.) Profanity: You will not use profanity in our forums, and will neither post with language or content that is obscene, sexually oriented, or sexually suggestive nor link to sites that contain such content.


[edit on 25-2-2008 by dbates]



posted on Feb, 28 2008 @ 01:16 AM
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Almost every part of our lives and what we hear on mainstream media is a lie! Our government here in the USA is corrupt in most every aspect of their jobs. We have plenty of oil, but the government will not release information to the public because the men who own them... (World Bank Exec's and more) want control of every part of our lives. we are living a lie and things will not change until we have a revolution! We have enough oil, ready for refinement, in alaska to bring gas prices down to $1.50 per gallon for the next twenty years... See This Vidoe On "You Tube":
Below is the link to the first of eight parts, the other seven parts are on the right side of the page where this video appears. This will open your eyes to the reality that we are not in a oil crisis at all.

Energy Non-Crisis

www.youtube.com...

watch all parts and let me know what you think... Enjoy!



posted on Feb, 29 2008 @ 04:43 AM
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Iraq is producing exactly: SQUAT.

We have NOT hit peak oil.



2005 August 84,847
2005 September 84,151
2005 October 84,146
2005 November 84,894
2005 December 84,702


What ever happened to disaster with Katrina that made gas jump up?



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