Originally posted by mel1962
Now add these items for food for thought:
But it's not food?
1) Production unable to ramp up on price increase, production peaked in July/August 2006 because of a price spike over $75.
Why should production be ramped up when there is no demand increase? How many consumers had to cut back their oil usage due to such high prices? Is
the US government still filling the strategic reserves and has the Chinese and Japanese finished yet? How many attacks on how much oil infrastructure
happened around that period?
Now oil is over $90 and if we are in peak oil I expect a similiar spike in production.
Why do you expect anything other than a peak in production when demand declines due to high prices and is intrerupted in so many places due to
invasions and illegal occupations?
Unfortunately data is only out for July 2007. I will continue to watch data to see if the "benchmark" is surpassed, if so it should happen
in between August to November 2007.
Why have you decided that to be some kind of benchmark?
According to the IEA, world production of total liquids in October increased by 1.4 million b/d from September resulting in total world liquids
production of 86.5 million b/d, -- the all time high liquids production. Many analysts are skeptical of this number and want to await confirmation
from other sources.
www.energybulletin.net...
And since i have no reason to be suspicious of those numbers you need to tell me why i should not believe them.
Why have you presumed that the rising prices are based on fundamentals when so many 'experts' will tell you that such can not explain these fast
rising prices? Why don't the 'experts' know and why have you chosen to believe the dissidents? What happens when the world's oil is largely
traded in the USD which is rapidly losing value due to inflation?
Why do you believe Matt Simmons who is after all a investment banker who makes money when his prophecies ( and they are no more) are believed?
Why believe investment bankers about anything? As things stand i can point you to plenty of articles where his 'monkey business' has been exposed
and it's clear to at least me that he really will say anything to scare people into paying more for oil.
3) War drums beating (Iran - US / Turkey - Iraq) metal prices through reaching all time highs.
What does high metal prices ( massive construction projects all over the world? ) have to do with anything? Why is all the war drums reason to suspect
that oil is running out instead of just evidence that oil resources can not be properly exploited due to all of it? How much oil production did the
world lose in the last three years due to the American occupation of Iraq after that ten years of sanctions?
The writing is always on the wall for the doomers as they have seen it there for the last thirty years with nothing coming of it. I was NOT born
yesterday and you will find that people who can read some history wont be so easily fooled by the ramblings of the peakers.
I am constantly amazed that so many people who should stick to discussing Aliens, moon bases and 9-11 get involved in substantive discussions on
issues they have not studied.
The truth IS scarier as the volume of oil still in the ground means that we can continue along our current polluting ways for probably another century
or two!
Not to say that everything else is not entertaining, I just feel that the ATS masses like to ignore real issues and surrond themselves in some
kind of fantasy land.
Indeed and i keep wondering why people buy into the peak freak propaganda.
There is certainly much to worry about but unless you can point out to us why we should suddenly start believing the peak freaks given their terrible
prediction records you will probably get ignored.
The peak crowd do wish to present a messianic front but given their ideas for 'culling' the world population i doubt we should consider them to have
our best interest in mind.
Originally posted by mel1962
If prices go up, production goes up,
Actually if prices go up and the producers are sufficiently organized they are likely to reduce production to increase competition for resources and
thus prices. That's after all what supply and demand dictates!
the peak is still July '06 at the time oil was $75 now its over $90. Production has not been able to ramp up,
Production has in fact increased and there is simply no way that the worlds oil can become so scarce in the span of ten years that oil prices go from
8 USD to 90 USD. To even suggest that such a rise could have anything to do with market fundamentals is admitting that you do not know anything about
the speculative nature of modern commodity markets.
I appreciate your comments but your proof and examply are not apples to apples!
Peak OilOriginally posted by mel1962
Starman that is my sentiments, I check EIA supply data and August 2007 came in at 83,920, nearly 1.5 million off the "peak" in July '06!
The next update will be in early December for September's Data!
Sure and according to the numbers there goes another peak theory/date despite the massive increases in prices since then. It's surprising that demand
has stayed right up there despite these high prices and i can assure you that they it would have been WAY up if prices were at fair levels and the
developing world could afford it..
I think alot of people think something is wrong, put they can't quite put there finger on it.
Sure they know something is wrong when the prices keep going up and while the oil companies maintains that there is still plenty of oil they know they
wont be believed giving the peak oil people plenty to work with. People CAN put their finger on who's to blame , exxon mobil/shell but what are they
to do when so called experts tell them that oil is in fact running out and that they should not believe the oil companies, which people generally know
not to believe, when they say it's plentiful? Why should average people arrive at the truth when you could not?
Dick Cheney knows that oil is exceedingly plentiful and that he must do everything in his power to create crissis that will result in less oil
production everywhere. OPEC is not going to be 'pumped dry any decade ( or century in my opinion) soon and the US has reserves on the US mainland and
along the coast that could probably supply in it's demand for a hundred years.
And why presume a 'peak'? Are you trying to be fashionable?
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) -- Saudi Arabia, which already has aggressively shaved its oil output in a battle to shore up prices, will reduce
production by another 158,000 barrels per day beginning Thursday and more cuts are on the way, according to a media report.
The Saudi cut is seen as an aggressive move to keep the price of the U.S. benchmark crude above $55 a barrel, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday
in its online edition, quoting Roger Diwan, an analyst at PFC Energy, a Washington industry consultancy.
The latest cut means Saudi Arabia will have reduced production by about 1 million barrels per day in the past six months, The Journal said, citing an
unnamed senior Saudi oil official.
money.cnn.com... Saudi Arabia, which already has aggressively shaved its oil output in a battle to shore up prices, is tightening its spigots further this
week.
A senior Saudi oil official said yesterday the kingdom had advised its customers of the impending 158,000 barrel-a-day cut, which takes effect Feb. 1.
The reductions, part of a broader campaign by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, are intended to shrink inventories of oil that had
ballooned last year as demand growth for petroleum faltered.
"After these cuts, our oil production will have declined by about one million barrels a day since last summer," said the senior Saudi oil
official.
online.wsj.com...
So it's NOT due to a lack of capacity but simply one of those so called 'free market forces' at work.
Continued
[edit on 6-12-2007 by StellarX]
